Examining the chart above reveals just how teams were fairing on a weekly basis during the season. It's worth noting that Prime Time benefited with three victories despite having weeks where his point total was far below his weekly point total. Hartan garnished two wins despite a low output, although they also lost two games when they put up a ton of points.
Conversely, Cobra, Jaj, and Grabbers each lost three games due to an opponent outscoring their high weekly total. Grabbers had three victories taken away despite outscoring his weekly average.
Looking at Opponents PPG over the entirety of a season, we can see that Jaj had the worst weekly opponent average of all the squads, at 129.6 ppg. That is a very high average, one that was nearly sixteen points above the second highest team Cobra Kai.
Hartan and Grabbers benefited the most from a softer weekly ppg from their opponents, but still managed to lose games despite weeks where they scored very well.
Flat in the middle was HBK, who seemed to hit exactly as he should, winning games when he performed well, and losing those when he didn't. There was no deviation from this during his season. His team was exactly what his record said it was. 8-5.
We can interpret the above information from a metaphysical standpoint as well as a statistical one, and both offer the same conclusion. Statistically and "fantasy wise," teams seem to score huge on Jaj Cousteau, and his team could be prone to rough weekly outputs from opponents. The team that could most likely lose despite a high outing are Grabbers, Hartan, and Cobra Kai. Prime Time looks like he is the team that could sneak by a week where he scores the lowest points. Lastly, HBK is the most prone to not fall in either category, winning if he scores big, and losing if he doesn't.
Plain 'ol Luck - Do you Feel Lucky Punk?
Perhaps the most important factor of all. Luck. If there is anything we know about the AFFL playoffs is that is solely about "survival of the luckiest." Whomever has lady luck by their side has a great shot at being the last one standing come week 16.
How can you quantify Luck? Well, in the fantasy world it is mostly quantified by the "close" wins that a team can have. A win typically by three points or less will no doubt be labeled as "lucky." As it should. In fantasy, winning a game when it comes down to one pass, one catch, or one play is great for team moral and building "luck karma." Teams just seem to have things go their way and there is no explaining it other than luck. Everyone wants to be that team, especially when it comes playoff time.
Looking over the 2014 season there are a few notable games that stand out as being extremely lucky, and ones that can point to which teams have "luck" going into the postseason.
Here are the games of the 2014 season that were so close, they had had to have a little luck given for the winning team.
HBK Defeats Magnum Sev.i 105.92-103.16 (2.80)
Jaj Cousteau Defeats Grabbers 120.22-120.02 (.20)
Jaj Cousteau Defeats Hangin' 109.80 -107.10 (2.70)
Grabbers Defeats Cobra Kai 114.20-111.64 (2.56)
Prime Time Defeats Bomba 102.56-101.32 (1.24)
Ironically, all playoff teams were involved in close games this season, except Hartan. As you can see, the above games were extremely close, where one play in one game had a huge impact on the outcome.
Jaj Cousteau finds himself on the list twice, squeaking out two victories by a combined total of less than three points. If you factor in his six and seven record, the idea that he had to win out and get help from other teams, along with the close victories above, we can conclude that Cousteau has a lot of luck riding with him. It is no doubt one of the reasons that he has overcome a high opponents weekly output to find himself in the first round of the playoffs. What is also interesting to note, his first round match-up is against Grabbers, a team he narrowly defeated late in the season by .2 points. Cousteau definitely has luck on his side.
Grabbers, Prime Time, and HBK also have had their share of "lucky" wins. In the case of HBK, a 2.8 point defeat by Magnum Sev.i was the only reason that he managed to win the division and win the week 14 bye. Had the game ended in a loss, he would've finished in fifth place and ended up playing Cobra in round one.
Prime Time's lone lucky victory was against Bomba in week 11, knocking the Atomic one out of the playoffs. We have already pointed out that Prime Time has managed to squeeze by three victories during the season when he put up a low point total, and this further exemplifies his "Lucky" status. Not only does Ara have Lady Luck sitting next to him, she's washing his clothes too.
So who is it going to be? Which of the teams has the best shot to win? After breaking it all down above, we now get to put it all together and come up with some hard statements about each squad. While we can't say for sure which team will win it, we can speculate on the reasons why they will, or why they wont.
So here we go..
The Dark Horse