AFFL MEGA PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Raffi Lalazarian
We are here at last. We are here at last. Thank God almighty, we are here at last.
Week fourteen. The first week of the fantasy playoffs. Six teams survived the regular season of the AFFL and now will square off for three weeks to determine who gets to hold the famed AFFL trophy. Surprises are included in the playoff pack, not only because of the teams that made it to the postseason, but the teams left out. BDiddy, a fixture in the playoffs for the past three seasons failed to finish in the top six. Shocking. The Atomic Bomba, the four-time AFFL champion and usual lock to be playing week fourteen failed as well. Double shocker. Two teams who were heavy favorites at the beginning of the year to be playing come postseason time, out. The AFFL, where nothing can be taken for granted. Nothing.
The current group of playoff teams are a great mix of veterans and newcomers, as well as last years champ. The trash talk has escalated to a fever pitch, with Prime Time leading the group. Having already called out next years draft in his area (the winner of the AFFL gets to select where the draft will be held in 2015) manager Ara has thrown down the gauntlet and will need to survive the fantasy gods wrath, as well as the heavy jinxing that team Cobra Kai has engaged in during the past three weeks. Rumor is that Prime Time has already purchased a hundred and fifty rabbits feet to fend off any such attempts at curbing his 'joo-joo.'
While Prime Time and Cobra come off as being favorites, the most interesting teams lie somewhere in the middle. Hartan, HBK, Grabbers, and Jaj Cousteau all find themselves with unique story lines as they charge up the playoff hill. Despite having won an AFFL title in '07, Hartan is looking to win his first under the current twelve team format. Grabbers looks to reach the finals for the second time in three years, becoming only the third team to achieve such a feat. HBK has had playoff disappoints galore, but finds himself squarely placed in week fifteen and only one game away from reaching the finals for the first time in his history. Jaj Cousteau has never won a playoff game, and having squeaked into the playoffs as the sixth seed, is looking to become the first team to win a title with a losing record. And don't forget Cobra Kai's bid to become the third team to win back-to-back AFFL titles. Fun stuff indeed.
But just who has a legit shot at winning the title? Just what should a title team look like? If history is any guide, we can look at few key components to championship teams and just what the current crop of teams will need in order to stand a fighting chance. We can break down these components to five key characteristics that have been a regular on winning squads of yesteryear. These are: Team's Ceiling, Teams Health, Diversity of Line-up Options, Opponents Weekly Total, and Plain 'ol Luck. These "Five Pillars" are usually the most important when finding a champion in the AFFL. With these in mind, lets look at how this years postseason teams fit in with the "Five Pillars" and who has the best shot of winning the AFFL title.
Team's Ceiling - SET a New High Score?
It goes without saying that the more points you score, the better your chances of winning are. Since 2008, the AFFL Champion has scored more than 135 points in the final game four times, with three of those games clearing 150 points; 169 (2008), 158 (2012), 159 (2013). That's a whole heck-of-a-lotta points that a team will have to contend with. In fact, the lowest point total to win a championship was 122.50 in 2010, and only once, once, in any playoff game over the last seven years has a champion scored less than one hundred points on the road to the title (Awesomeness, 2010 - 92.42). What this all means is that should a team hope to win-it-all, they'll need to do it by putting up a ton of points and not hoping they squeak out a low scoring game. The playoffs are a different animal entirely.
With all this in mind, let's take a look at the current crop of teams and see just how they stack up when it comes to point totals. Below is a chart that shows a teams highest and lowest point totals during the 2014 regular season. Using a teams highs and lows, we can see which squad is best equipped to put up a boatload of points come tourney time.
Looking at the chart above, we can see just how good Grabbers has been all season. They have a ceiling that rivals those of other playoff teams with a floor that is above a hundred and ten points. Those kinds of margins are what you look for when picking a champion. When it comes to sheer points, nobody has scored higher than Prime Time. The 168 point outing was no doubt a result of Peyton Manning, and with a ceiling that is at least nine points better than the other playoff squads, Prime Time is a good bet to outscore the field on any given Sunday.
These two teams make-up the top of the heap when it comes to point totals.
Cobra has scored 150 points once, but it should be noted that he had many outings in the 130 range. While that is slightly out of the allotted championship bar of 135 points set by the majority of finals of years past, it is still a high number and good enough to win on most any given week.
HBK and Hartan pose the biggest enigma of the group. Each have had their share of very high, highs, and the lowest of lows. HBK set the low for the season with 52 points, while Hartan didn't do much better at 54. The fact that Hartan has scored below ninety points three times gives us reason to suspect that the team could drop a dud come weeks 14-16. Yes the line-ups are different than they were early in the season, however, teams carry an essence with them, creating a team identity. While players change, manager choices do not, which can lead to poor performances. Hartan is definitely on notice, as is HBK.
While they haven't scored that high that often, Jaj Cousteau can claim to the second highest total this season amongst the group. He's only scored over 140 twice, but shows that on a good week, he can put up points to contend. Not too shabby.
It's clear that the odds on favorite to outscore the field are Grabbers and Prime Time, while the other four teams are good enough to contend should the chips fall the right way. So far, nothing here really separates anyone from the pack.
Team Health - Medic Needed?
In 2009, the finals came down to the wire between Awesomeness and the Atomic Bomba, where an ankle injury during the final game of the season to one of Atomic Bomba's players cost his team the title by .65 points. Tough luck. Injuries just can't be a part of a winning game plan, and teams that are the healthiest during the playoffs are usually the ones that survive the grueling anguish of the last three weeks.
Heading into week fourteen, here are the teams biggest question marks as it pertains to the health of their players.
Coming into the postseason, Hartan and Cobra find themselves in the healthiest of situations. Neither team has a notable injury that could derail their starting line-up. Meanwhile, Prime Time is hurting bad. Injuries to his RB core may leave the team with little firepower come week 15 (he has a bye in week 14). The injuries to Prime Time are significant, as the team's ceiling is the highest of the group. This will definitely impact Prime Time's potential output and could derail hopes of returning to the finals once again.
Aside from Prime Time, most of the other teams are relatively healthy, and injuries shouldn't impact their teams performance much. Jaj does lose a key player in McKinnon, but he wasn't exactly putting up points weekly. The same can be said for Brandon Marshall. Grabbers has more than enough depth to deal with losing Marshall.
Diversity of Line-up - Who has Options?
While it is true that most teams should cut depth for starters prior to the trade deadline once they have secured a playoff birth, depth does play a huge part of a teams success of any champion. Having options and maximizing good match-ups will help a team tremendously. It's not great to be pigeon-holed into having to play a starter because you have no better option. Yes, sometimes it could be a good thing, as it limits the error in choices that a manager can make. However, being forced to play an RB against a tough run defense isn't ideal, and could be the difference between a win and a loss. Teams equipped to maneuver around tough match-ups and injuries will be the ones standing come week 16.
Above are the playoff rosters for all six teams. HBK and Prime are both on bye for the first week of the playoffs, so they won't have their depth tested until week 15.
We can put the bench players of each team into two categories to help classify and analyze the rosters. One category will be "depth," where players have very little value on their own and are only playable in dire situations. The other category will be "startable," where a player could be seen as a flex play, or a WR or RB play should the need arise. We will focus only on position players and exclude defenses for now.
Here is how each teams bench breaks down into the two above mentioned categories: depth and startable.
Prime Time: 5 startable, 2 depth
Grabbers: 4 startable, 1 depth
Jaj: 3 startable, 4 depth
Hartan: 3 startable, 4 depth
HBK: 3 startable, 3 depth
Cobra: 2 startable, 4 depth
With a bench that bolsters Larry Fitzgerlad, Steven Jackson, Blount, Latavius Murray and Donte Moncrief, Prime Time has a very deep bench that he could go to in a pinch. Murray and Moncrief offer some pizzazz while other players seem a little less exciting. Ara will need all the depth he can handle, as injuries are already beginning to mount.
Despite the more playable starters on Prime Time's team, Grabbers has perhaps the bench with the biggest upside, in Lefall and Herron. Both these bench players are key components to their respective teams, and have upside when utilized in the right match-ups. There is also Terrence West, who, with a hip injury to Isiah Crowell, could take over lead back duties very soon.
Cobra's bench lacks the numbers, but has two solid pieces in Matthews and Miller. Match-ups for both will determine their output, but with an extra piece at both key positions, Cobra won't have trouble filling in for a bad match-up.
HBK is also looking good with Sanchez and Benjamin on the bench. Benjamin gives Michaels a solid four Wrs to choose from on any given week, while Sanchez can help alleviate a bad match-up for Rivers. This could be crucial week 15 and 16 when weather could play into QB plays (something HBK has no doubt pondered since last season).
The two teams with the least upside in reserve are Jaj and Hartan. With only a few players that offer any real startable value, both these teams could be hard pressed to avoid a bad flex play or WR match-up. Jaj particularly has it a bit rough, with only Landry and Asiata as viable plays, and not exciting ones at that.
Of course, things can change over the course of a week, and players that were merely depth can become instant starters, so we can't say for certain how things will shape out during the playoffs. But as it stands now, four teams look poised to help alleviate any match-up problems, while two may find themselves pigeon-holed into playing a guy because "they have to." That's never a good option to have.
Opponent's Points - Don't Tread on Me.
While there is no way to predict just how an opponent will do against another opponent on any given week, we can look at some trends associated with the current crop of playoff teams to see just how they did during the 2014 regular season on a weekly basis as it pertains to their opponents point totals.
In order to accurately asses a teams record, we should look at how many wins they gained due to low points by an opponent. Conversely, looking at how many losses a team had due to an opponent out scoring a high point total can also tell us something about the strength of a team.
Below is a chart analyzing the number of points opponents were putting up against the playoff teams and their respective responses to weeks that were either extremely low or high. We will say that a teams "low points" will be determined relative to their weekly ppg. For example, if a team averages 123 points per game, and only scores 100 but still wins, they benefited from a low point total that week. Conversely, if they outscore their ppg and still lose, that is noted as well. A teams ppg can be found on each teams yahoo team page. They were not posted in the chart.
Examining the chart above reveals just how teams were fairing on a weekly basis during the season. It's worth noting that Prime Time benefited with three victories despite having weeks where his point total was far below his weekly point total. Hartan garnished two wins despite a low output, although they also lost two games when they put up a ton of points.
Conversely, Cobra, Jaj, and Grabbers each lost three games due to an opponent outscoring their high weekly total. Grabbers had three victories taken away despite outscoring his weekly average.
Looking at Opponents PPG over the entirety of a season, we can see that Jaj had the worst weekly opponent average of all the squads, at 129.6 ppg. That is a very high average, one that was nearly sixteen points above the second highest team Cobra Kai.
Hartan and Grabbers benefited the most from a softer weekly ppg from their opponents, but still managed to lose games despite weeks where they scored very well.
Flat in the middle was HBK, who seemed to hit exactly as he should, winning games when he performed well, and losing those when he didn't. There was no deviation from this during his season. His team was exactly what his record said it was. 8-5.
We can interpret the above information from a metaphysical standpoint as well as a statistical one, and both offer the same conclusion. Statistically and "fantasy wise," teams seem to score huge on Jaj Cousteau, and his team could be prone to rough weekly outputs from opponents. The team that could most likely lose despite a high outing are Grabbers, Hartan, and Cobra Kai. Prime Time looks like he is the team that could sneak by a week where he scores the lowest points. Lastly, HBK is the most prone to not fall in either category, winning if he scores big, and losing if he doesn't.
Plain 'ol Luck - Do you Feel Lucky Punk?
Perhaps the most important factor of all. Luck. If there is anything we know about the AFFL playoffs is that is solely about "survival of the luckiest." Whomever has lady luck by their side has a great shot at being the last one standing come week 16.
How can you quantify Luck? Well, in the fantasy world it is mostly quantified by the "close" wins that a team can have. A win typically by three points or less will no doubt be labeled as "lucky." As it should. In fantasy, winning a game when it comes down to one pass, one catch, or one play is great for team moral and building "luck karma." Teams just seem to have things go their way and there is no explaining it other than luck. Everyone wants to be that team, especially when it comes playoff time.
Looking over the 2014 season there are a few notable games that stand out as being extremely lucky, and ones that can point to which teams have "luck" going into the postseason.
Here are the games of the 2014 season that were so close, they had had to have a little luck given for the winning team.
HBK Defeats Magnum Sev.i 105.92-103.16 (2.80)
Jaj Cousteau Defeats Grabbers 120.22-120.02 (.20)
Jaj Cousteau Defeats Hangin' 109.80 -107.10 (2.70)
Grabbers Defeats Cobra Kai 114.20-111.64 (2.56)
Prime Time Defeats Bomba 102.56-101.32 (1.24)
Ironically, all playoff teams were involved in close games this season, except Hartan. As you can see, the above games were extremely close, where one play in one game had a huge impact on the outcome.
Jaj Cousteau finds himself on the list twice, squeaking out two victories by a combined total of less than three points. If you factor in his six and seven record, the idea that he had to win out and get help from other teams, along with the close victories above, we can conclude that Cousteau has a lot of luck riding with him. It is no doubt one of the reasons that he has overcome a high opponents weekly output to find himself in the first round of the playoffs. What is also interesting to note, his first round match-up is against Grabbers, a team he narrowly defeated late in the season by .2 points. Cousteau definitely has luck on his side.
Grabbers, Prime Time, and HBK also have had their share of "lucky" wins. In the case of HBK, a 2.8 point defeat by Magnum Sev.i was the only reason that he managed to win the division and win the week 14 bye. Had the game ended in a loss, he would've finished in fifth place and ended up playing Cobra in round one.
Prime Time's lone lucky victory was against Bomba in week 11, knocking the Atomic one out of the playoffs. We have already pointed out that Prime Time has managed to squeeze by three victories during the season when he put up a low point total, and this further exemplifies his "Lucky" status. Not only does Ara have Lady Luck sitting next to him, she's washing his clothes too.
So who is it going to be? Which of the teams has the best shot to win? After breaking it all down above, we now get to put it all together and come up with some hard statements about each squad. While we can't say for sure which team will win it, we can speculate on the reasons why they will, or why they wont.
So here we go..
The Dark Horse
Why He'll Win-It-All
Jaj is a wild card. He's a drifter. He doesn't play by the rules and that's the way he likes it. You may look at his line-up and think there are no options available to him, but he sees opportunity. Marvin Jones big game last year. Drafting Arian Foster his break-out season in the second round. Jaj is built to take risks, and it's that kind of mentality that can get him a title. He's already survived a year where opponents bombarded him with points. He's managed to navigate his way from 3 wins to six wins and get help from others to squeak into the playoffs. There is no better battle tested team than this one. Oh and he's got pieces too. Brown, Charles, and Demeriyus provide a lethal core. With the second highest point total all year amongst the playoff teams, a high ceiling isn't a problem for the Jaj man. Lady Luck may well be on her way to Jaj's house right now after the season he's managed to go through. He's a team you don't want to play, and just the type of team that can win it all.
Why He Won't Win-it-All
Could his luck have run out? While the survival in the midst of pressure has been admirable, at some point the better team will win. Jaj has had some poor outings and has only put up more than 120 points only twice over the past five weeks. Colin Kapearnick isn't a championship caliber QB, not when you pit him against the likes of Stafford, Luck, and Manning. Without much pop up top, Jaj is going to be relying on a 35 year old TE and a Vikings RB core that is abysmal. Oh, and if that weren't enough, he'll have to go through Grabbers and HBK, two teams that have been at the top of their divisions all year. Good luck indeed.
The Quiet Ones
Why They'll Win-It-All
They've already won it once, they know what it takes. Hartan has made the playoffs four consecutive seasons, finishing in the top four each time. Building all that playoff experience will come in handy when tough decisions have to be made. Plus, has anyone really heard from these guys lately? They just hovered around the six seed all season, quietly laying back while other teams took the spotlight. It's almost like the league forgot about them as being a threat. Consider that Stafford hadn't been Stafford all season, and that both he, Gordon, and ODB have come on late. They have the potential to explode and nobody really knows what to make of the line-up as of right now. And that's a good thing. Hartan is being underestimated. Their second biggest point total of the season came the last week of the season against HBK. They could be peaking at the perfect time, and nobody is considering this. Scary.
Why They Won't Win-it-All
It's Hartan. They do this every season. They find away to squeak into the playoffs, hang around a while, then get ousted just before the finals. A Hartan team is a safe team, but not one known to tip the fantasy point scales when it comes the postseason. They play things safe, and their roster, despite having a lot of potential, has also put up a few very low totals this year. With three games in front of them, it's highly likely that one of those low point totals comes up to bite them in the butt. Hartan will also have to go through two very tough teams, Cobra and Prime Time, all while relying on a rookie WR and another that has missed 3/4ths of the season. Not exactly a recipe that breeds confidence now does it.
The Favorite that Isn't a Favorite
Why He'll Win-It-All
He's one game from the finals. Just one. Has anyone noticed that HBK has the best WR core in the playoffs? In a pass-happy league, WRs have the most upside, and with four solid ones, HBK will have a severe advantage most weeks. High point totals during the season? Check. Close victory? Check. Team Overdue? Check. He put up 155 points week 13, so this could be the beginning of hot streak. While the RBs aren't producing, he has plenty of upside on the bench with handcuffs that could become lead dogs. Oh and he wont need to worry about week 14, did we mention that? He'll get a Grabbers team that could be without Marshall, or an overachieving Jaj Cousteau team that has QB problems and a week RB2. Both won't pose match-up problems for him. And with depth at QB, he'll be able to avoid the weather this year. Unfinished business from 2013 is always a great storyline to ride to a title.
Why He Won't Win-it-All
He can't win in week 15. He's been here before, but hasn't been able to get over the hump. There are many teams in the mix, and all of the teams from the Mazoon division have put up more points than he has on the season. Also, where are his RBs? Vereen isn't the type to carry an RB load, and Lacy has been hit or miss. Bennett has a bum ankle and could kill the TE advantage he has. Bottom line, HBK hasn't won in the playoffs before because he always falls short. Luck seems to leave him when it matters most. It could do so again, for a team that won a weak division.
The Champ OF THE MiDDLE TIER CONTENDERS
Why He'll Win-It-All
Two words: Demarco Murray. The same player that carried him to a title last year is looking unstoppable again. Cobra has a team that can pack-a-punch on any given week. There is no point total that they can't top. Putting up 150 points during the season gives the squad a high ceiling. Forte and Murray give the team a high floor. Not a good combo for opponents. He's already started off hot, and looks to keep it going through the weekend. Another bad sign for the rest of the group. Cobra will win because he is the champ, and once you climb the mountain you know how to avoid the pitfalls the second time around. It's an easy path to the finals for Kai. A watered down Hartan team, and an injury riddled Prime Time roster are all that stand in his way. That's no problem for a team that bolsters a 123.5 ppg average, one of the highest amongst the active teams. Plus, he's completely healthy. Health=Title.
Why He Won't Win-it-All
Has he gotten overconfident? Cocky perhaps? Pride will be his downfall, thinking he can't lose will be the beginning of the end for Kai. Having already started the jinxing of Prime Time three weeks before the start of the playoffs, Cobra is setting himself up for the wrath of the fantasy gods. They never like an overly aggressive jinxing manager. Russell Wilson isn't exactly a championship caliber fantasy QB. There could be a dud game one of these weeks. Couple that with an aging Andre Johnson and possession receiving Jordan Matthews and you have a recipe for a dud week. It isn't going to be difficult to beat Cobra week 15, should the team have tough match-ups with the above mentioned players. (which they do)
Second in COmmand
Why He'll Win-It-All
Payback. He's comeback to claim what was his two years ago. And he's been good all season. Andrew Luck is perhaps the best QB in the playoffs. Who needs Manning. Gronk gives the team a huge advantage over all other TE's. We also saw how he's the deepest team of the group, with LaFell, West, and Herron. Grabbers has been away from the playoffs for years, and the fact that he's made it back twice in two years means there is something special brewing. It's like the days when Awesomeness first cracked the postseason. Grabbers has that destiny feel to him. Always saying the right things. If it's not going to be Ara, then it's going to have to be Grabbers. Considering that he's lost three games when he got outscored despite a high point total, Grabbers is +3 in the win department, which would make him a heavy favorite. Oh and his floor is 113 points. 113!! That is stellar.
Why He Won't Win-it-All
History. History says that Grabbers is good for a second, then gone the next. We think this could be the story of the Grabbers franchise. While he's done admirably getting to the postseason, he feels like a team that could implode. It may have already started with the duds laid by Bryant and Marshall week14. Nothing more to say than that. Couldn't beat Prime Time in week 3 of regular season, and loss to Jaj in week 11 could be an omen of what will happen again.
THE LEADER OF THE PACK
Why He'll Win-It-All
He's Ara. He's been hanging around forever. One of the founding fathers of the AFFL and he hasn't won a title? Doesn't make sense. He nearly won one a few years back, but lost to Bomba. This season, he eliminated Bomba week 11. That's a sign from the fantasy gods. Prime has a QB that will out duel either one he faces in the next round. Big advantage. He also has the benefit of a bench that has a number of pieces that can be used weekly. If Murray plays and gets the load, forget about it. It's over. He's put up over 150 points twice, with the highest total of the year coming at his hands (168). Prime Time doesn't make many line-up mistakes, which means that his roster will usually be at optimal or close to it. Peyton Manning has unfinished business in the NFL, and that means that Prime Time could be riding 40 point QB totals to the AFFL title. We think the chances are much better than 60%. And hey, it's Ara, he never goes away.
Why He Won't Win-it-All
Injuries. He's had too many. If no Jennings, Ellington, Watkins, there is no chance he can defeat either Cobra or Hartan in week 15, nor anyone that makes it to week 16 from the other side. He has already called out the league and claimed the draft will be in his neck of the woods. That is a big no-no. He's essentially jinxed himself, something he cannot undo at this point. Lastly, and most importantly, Ara has for years lambasted the commissioner and the league's office for failing to produce to his liking. All that talk has generated bad AFFL Karma and it will surely come around to bite him in the butt. The AFFL doesn't take lightly to teams that don't respect the shield. He's been around a long time, and nothing he's done has ever worked to getting him a title. Things won't change now, especially when the cold weather curtails Peyton Mannings points and Ara's title hopes for good.
Predictions:
Round 1
Cobra over Hartan
Jaj over Grabbers
Round 2
Jaj over HBK
Prime Time over Cobra
Final
Jaj over Prime Time