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The AFFL is the best Fantasy Football league West of Yerevan.

Courier

HBK Uses Wrestling to Motivate his Team. Suplex's Eddie Lacy.

Raffi Lalazarian

In most practices around the football world, running backs take instruction from coaches and managers and improve their skills on the field. Occasionally, motivational tactics can range from words encouragement, to death drills.  But humbling a player on a wrestling mat has to be a first.

“He got to me. What can I say. The son-of-a-bitch got to me,” clamored ex-wrestling champion and manager HBK Shant Michaels. "I had to give him a little chin music to motivate his ass."

The player being referred to was packers star running back Eddie Lacy. What he got was a sweet suplex on the goal line, followed by a super fly Jimmy Snuka move off the goal posts, to a three count administered by Shane Vereen.

What began as innocent squabble between manager and an under performing player in Lacy exploded into a full fledged WWE style scene with teammates rolling out a wrestling mat on the touchdown area. Onlookers formed a human ring where Lacy was given a lesson in the ways of the HBK.  Alshon Jeffery explains:

“What happen was, Eddie was jawing at HBK sayin’ ‘you can’t wrestle no more, you a has been wrestler. Then Coach Shant said, ‘At least aint no has been after just one season,’ talking about Eddie's lack of numbers. Then shit just got crazy and Shane come running out the locker room with a full on mat yellin' 'It's on bitches. Coach gonna do this.' Lacy was screamin’ 'Sexy Boy? What?!' Ah man. It was funny.”

Witnesses described the fight as follows: HBK opened with a few clotheslines, and drop kicks, then eventually got Lacy into a sleeper hold. Lacy however reversed out of it, into a half-nelson, an eye gouge, then proceeded to unleash strikes to the head. HBK quickly countered with a strike to the gut and then running clothesline. A DDT, Suplex, and dive from the goal post later, Lacy was done.

Afterward, Eddie remained humble saying it was all in good fun.

“Na man, its not about me hating on coach. I just tried to put him in his place that all. Didn't work out”

Team HBK has wrestled their way to the top of the AFFL standings despite the slow start from Lacy. Hopefully this will be the motivation he needs to keep the winning streak going. He knew the pressure was on him to deliver, and he's up to the task.

"No doubt. I got to show up on Sunday. I'm gonna be there."

Now the question on everyone’s mind is will there be a rematch? Both HBK and Lacy have emphatically claimed that it was a one time deal, but Martelus Bennett wasn't so sure about that.

“Give ‘em about a week. Michaels will have Lacy in a headlock again. If not, I'll probably have to egg it them on to go for round two."

Bennett you son-of-a-bitch.

Hartan Offers Trade to Himself, then Rejects it.

Raffi Lalazarian

Sometimes Hartan brings in a third party to evaluate a trade offer. The official Hartan Parrot named SheeShik takes on the task above. He's given crackers as compensation.

Sometimes Hartan brings in a third party to evaluate a trade offer. The official Hartan Parrot named SheeShik takes on the task above. He's given crackers as compensation.

One of the most active teams in the AFFL when it comes to trades is team Hartan. They have been in the process of working blockbuster deals for a long time. So how do they do it? Apparently they practice on each other.

We each own half of the team,” explained Harout, "so we offer each other trades and then accept or reject them. We know that if one of us accepts the trade offer, there is a good chance  another team will accept it.”

Harout reacting to practice offers from Vartan. He's told not to peak, then give a non-verbal cue if he likes or dislikes the trade. It's a game of peek-a-boo.

Harout reacting to practice offers from Vartan. He's told not to peak, then give a non-verbal cue if he likes or dislikes the trade. It's a game of peek-a-boo.

Does their method work? Well you be the judge. One "offer" that was proposed by Harout and “accepted” by  Vartan was Matthew Stafford, Joique Bell, Randall Cobb, Pierre Thomas, and Andre Johnson for Andrew Luck, Brandon Marshall,  Dez Bryant a 49% stake in Grabbers United. And free food for a month.

It's simple really,” explained Vartan. “Stafford plus Joique equals Luck. Cobb is better than Marshall because he's hurt, so that's Grabber's advantage. Andre Johnson would then combine with Pierre Thomas to be more than Dez, so the 49% evens that out. Maybe we were a bit high on that. Maybe 30% is his stake. The free food is just a throw in.”

A trade that was conversely rejected was Forte for Dez Bryant straight-up.

That was a trade that wasn't getting anyone anywhere,” explained Harout. “Not equal at all.”

When they can't decide on a whether or not they should accept or reject an offer, Hartan will bring in a third party to help break the tie. Usually, SheeShik, the teams official parrot will be used to help settle the score. SheeShik is a very intelligent bird and has been involved in orchestrating deals for the team for a long time. He was the one that suggested the Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas for Jamaal Charles trade last year. He has reportedly been clamoring for the team to dump Matthew Stafford because, as SheeShik puts it, "he's blockhead with a helmet on, raar."

If Hartan and SheeShik can't manage a trade before the weekend is over, Hartan will have to go into week 4 relying on a roster that put up an anemic 52 points last week. Their match-up with Hangin' & Bangin' could decide the fate of their season.

It may be time to put on the mask and go into Super Hartan mode.

Hartan when he goes into "Super" mode. They are reportedly 13-1-0 lifetime when dawning the Hartan mask.

Hartan when he goes into "Super" mode. They are reportedly 13-1-0 lifetime when dawning the Hartan mask.


Gyank Misspells Team Name on New Uniforms. Hello Vosqueereechee?

Raffi Lalazarian

In a blunder that has brought about a little embarrassment to a team and its manager, Vosgee manager Mardig unveiled new team uniforms on Thursday afternoon in hopes of turning his 0-3 season around. The unveiling went off with out a hitch, except for one small problem. The uni's read: Vosqueereechee Gyank.. translation. The Golden Gay Life.

After the crowd broke out in laughter, Mardig quickly scolded his assistants for not checking the uniforms before they were unveiled. Apparently they arrived just before the press conference, and  his assistants thought it'd be great to have them opened real time.

We obviously are going to correct the problem,” said Vosgee with beads of nervous sweat running down his face. “I have nothing against the gay community, but obviously, the Gay life is not the kind of Gyank we are talking about here.”

A few of the uniforms had already leaked out to the West hollywood area, and are being sold in San Francisco for up to 1,000 dollars.

Vosgee has already said that the uniforms that were sent to other cities for merchandising can stay and be sold as special “collectors items,” of which, all proceeds will come back to the team.

The Gay Union has already ordered a set of 10,000 to hand out during one if its parades in Northern Cali.

What's next,” joked an audience member. “A team called Ass Grabbers?!” The imagination of some people.

Bdiddy Wants League to Start over after winless start. Accuses Jaj Cousteau as having "Illegal Waiver Program""

Raffi Lalazarian

Owner of Bdiddy, Baret Chakarian filed a claim on Wednesday evening with the AFFL requesting the 2014 season should be restarted. The pie-in-the-sky request cites "rule changes that have lead to cheating on the waiver wire"  and that  "he may not make the playoffs and that's unacceptable" as reasons.

It's unacceptable bro,” said Baret to a group of reporters. “My team is bad, but not this bad. This new waiver wire thing with money is rigged bro. I got Jaj out bidding me on everything. What's going on? When did he become the stock market. He knows something we all don't. I know it."

Jaj Cousteau owner Chris went on a spending spree this past week, snatching multiple free agents off the shelves. His bids were impeccable. His twenty-eight dollar bid on the Ravens RB Lorenzo Taliaferro was exactly one dollar over the highest bid (Cobra kai). That sort of precision is very difficult to do, and has prompted Diddy to cry foul.

"So how does Jaj bid exactly one dollar over the highest bidder if this is all done in secret?" co-manager Monkey Mike questioned. "He's not lucky. He's not. The only other answer is that he has a computer program that can see everyone's bids, like ones used in online poker rooms to cheat. He's cheating bro."

I’ve made love to the waiver wire for years. My Jaj is all over it
— Jaj Cousteau

Poker rooms have been known to have players that use illegal programs that can show what cards other players in the room are holding, giving the ultimate tip to raking in tons of cash. Could Jaj be using the same type of program?

According to a statement released by Cousteau, that idea is ludicrous. Citing his successful waiver wire history, Cousteau says that there is no one better at working the list of free agents better than he.

"I've made love to the waiver wire for years. My Jaj is all over it."

Jaj laughs his ass off at BDiddy accusing him of cheating the waiver wire.

Jaj laughs his ass off at BDiddy accusing him of cheating the waiver wire.

BDiddy seems to be reaching at straws here, trying to overcompensate for an 0-3 start that has the prospects of the playoffs fading quickly to black. It is unlikely that the commissioner will take the request seriously, and restart the league.

Despite the slow start, the only team to turn things around in the history of the league after starting winless is BDiddy. It will take a lot of work, luck, and some help from the schedule, but the playoffs are not out of reach.

It is worth noting that Vegas has odds on AFFL teams to make the postseason, and Diddy is such a long shot that it's off the board.


History Lessons: What your Week 3 record says about your Playoff Chances, and Why, Win or Lose, BDiddy won't be out of it.

Raffi Lalazarian

So your team is 2-0 and sitting atop the division eh? Feeling pretty confident? You should be. Nothing feels better than starting a season off strong, except for finishing it that way.

Fantasy football is all about wins, and typically, teams will need to get seven in order to have a shot at the postseason. Starting a season with two wins puts teams at an extremely advantageous position, as they will need to win less than half their remaining games for a shot to keep playing in week fourteen. Teams that begin the season with two losses must win more than half moving forward in order to do the same. With bye weeks soon approaching, having an early winning streak can be a nice cushion to make up for some blunders in roster moves that could come as a result of byes crippling teams options. It's a huge advantage.

Just how big of an advantage is beginning the season with three wins as opposed to three losses? In this article, we will examine the history of the AFFL since 2008 and breakdown the odds that a team makes the playoffs according to their record after week three. We'll divide the teams into groups by what their potential record could be following week three and see how those teams have fared in that situation in the past.

The good news is that no team will be completely eliminated from playoff contention as a result of their week three record, but after looking at the charts below, they may be a little depressed.  BDiddy, Cobra, Awesomeness, Jaj, and Vosgee, this one's for you.

 

The Three Win, Zero Loss Club

Atomic Bomba, HBK Shant Michaels, Magnum Sev.i, Prime Time, Grabbers United

 

Everyone would love to be in this club. The teams that have started with two wins are sitting pretty. All the above teams look like legit contenders for the title, and if history has anything to say about it, if any of these teams goes 3-0, they will have better than a 71% chance of making the playoffs. Atomic Bomba, HBK, and Magnum all can be 3-0 after this week, however, Prime Time plays Grabbers, so one of those teams will be 2-1.

Since the 2008 season, there have been seven teams that have started off the season 3-0, and of those seven, five made the playoffs. Ironically, the two teams that failed to do so were Grabbers in 2009, and HBK in 2010. The only team of the group that has started 3-0 before is the Atomic Bomba. Of the five teams that made the postseason, all finished in the top four, with the majority having eight or nine wins. The high win totals across the board tells us that teams that begin the season with three wins are as good as their record claims, for the most part.

It's interesting to note that despite beginning the season with three wins, only once has a team finished as the #1 or #2 seed (Bomba '11). Also, starting the season three and zero doesn't mean that you can or will win it all. Of all the teams in the chart below, only one won the title that same  year (Bomba '11). A hot start does not guarantee championship.

Focusing on the two teams that failed to make the postseason, we can see that they both finished in 7th place, quite possibly missing out on the playoffs because of tie breakers. So even the teams that missed out on playing week fourteen were in the hunt until the end.

We can also note that those failures occurred nearly four seasons ago, and there have been changes to the scoring system since then. The recent trend of a perfect three for three could be the new norm. We shall wait and see.

Should Bomba, HBK, Magnum, Prime Time or Grabbers get to three wins after this week, we can safely say that, by the numbers, three of those teams will certainly be playing week fourteen. Anything can happen (and usually does) so don't start counting your chickens before they hatch, but beginning 3-0 is a great place to be.

 

The Two Wins, One Loss Club

Hartan, Hangin' & Bangin' as well as above teams.

 

If you can't win three games, then two games would be the next best thing. The two win teams from the previous group fall into this category along with Hartan and Hangin' who come into week three with one win each. Starting two and one is still a positive for any squad. Heck, just being on the right side of five hundred should be celebrated in fantasy. Does being two and one significantly decrease your odds of making the postseason from the three win group? Let's take a look.

Historically speaking, there have been 32 teams that have started the season with two wins and one loss, and only 11 have failed to make the postseason. That is 65% success rate. When considering that a three win team will have a seventy percent chance to make the postseason, there is hardly a drop off in odds for this group.

Examining the list closer, we can see that the teams that failed to make the postseason after starting 2-1 include current 1-1 teams Hangin' ('08) and Hartan ('10). However, each made the playoffs on two other occasions after starting off with two wins.

The list also includes failures from teams in the potential three win group: Prime Time ('09), and Magnum ('11). 

Examining recent trends, we can see that over the past two seasons, only three out of thirteen teams failed to make the postseason. That means 76% of the teams that started 2-1 over the past two years have made the playoffs.

If you can't be in the three and zero club, this is a great group to be in. With a 65% chance of a team making the playoffs after starting 2-1, there is no need to panic for any team that has two wins and a loss. While many teams have shown historically that they can ride a two win record to the top, we cannot ignore the history of those teams in this group that have failed to do so. Hartan, Hangin', Prime, and Magnum all have faced this scenario before. Whether they will again after week three remains to be seen.

 

The One win, Two Loss Club

Cobra Kai, BDiddy, Jaj Cousteau, Awesomeness, Vosgereechee Gyank, Hartan, Hangin' & Bangin'

 

Finding yourself on the wrong side of five hundred stinks. So close to even, yet also one game away from a huge hole. The first three weeks of the 2014 season have split the league into two halves; a group of two win teams and group of two loss teams, with only two teams representing the middle class (Hartan and Hangin') at one-and-one. 

Since 2008, twenty teams have started the season off with a one and two record. Of those twenty, only nine teams have turned things around and made the playoffs. That equates to a 45% chance that at team with two losses to start the season can climb out of the hole and make it to week fourteen. That is a twenty percent drop off from the above group. Quite significant.

We can find that numerous teams have been in this situation before, and from the above list, Awesomeness, Cobra, BDiddy and Jaj have all climbed out of it in the past. They can use that to keep their confidence high should they find themselves in the same hole again come week four. Awesomeness had perhaps the greatest turn around in AFFL history when he finished in 1st place after starting off 1-2, winning ten straight. Should he lose in week three, he'll be hoping for a similar finish.

Of the nine teams that turned their season around to make the postseason, only twice has a team finished as one of the top two seeds during the regular season, both times by Awesomeness. The majority of the teams that began with two losses ended up finishing between fourth and sixth place. This tells us that while the playoffs are achievable, finishing with a bye is perhaps a little too far out of reach.

It's worth noting that for the past two seasons, only one of seven teams has made the playoffs after starting 1-2 (Hangin' '13). That's only a 15% success rate.

Still, having one win is far better than the alternative: Zero wins. At least the odds are still reasonable that you can have hope. Below you will see that entering week four without a win will present quite the conundrum.

 

The Zero Win, Three Loss Club

Cobra Kai, BDiddy, Vosgereechee Gyank, Jaj Cousteau, Awesomeness.

 

To say that this is a bad spot to be in is an understatement. Five teams find themselves with two losses after the first two weeks and on the verge of having the magnanimous task of doing something that has been done only once before. 

Since 2008, there have been twelve teams that have started the season with three straight losses, and only once has a team managed to make the playoffs after starting off that way.  That's less than a 10% chance. Yikes. Ironically, the team that managed to climb out of the three hole was BDiddy, and they find themselves once again in the same situation. Vosgee, Cobra, Gyank, and Jaj have all started 0-3 at some point in the past and failed to make the postseason. Not good.

What is even more concerning is that aside from BDiddy, no team finished higher than 8th place. Nine of the teams that started the season with three losses finished with a win total of less than five. That means that 75% of the above group of teams will finish the same way.

Recent trends point to the fact that no team in the past three seasons has ever finished higher than 8th place after starting 0-3. Coupled with the recent trends of all other win teams previously mentioned in the article and we could conclude that the league has perhaps gotten more difficult and less forgiving on teams that start slowly. This could be due to shrewd managers who take all the talent off the waiver wire, the lack of available trades, or just bad luck.

The chart above paints a bleak picture for a team that is 0-3. Teams that start this way would not only have to hope that they reach the seven win plateau and have enough points to win any tiebreakers, they would have to get extremely lucky with the schedule and have the rest of the league beat up on each other to even allow for that opportunity to make the playoffs. Not fun.

 

How big of a week is week 3? Teams that start the season with two or three wins have a 65-70% chance of making the postseason, while those that manage to limp into week four with zero or one win will have no better than a 10-45% chance of playing in week 14. Recent trends paint an even bleaker picture, as only 15% of teams that started 1-2 and 0% of teams that started 0-3 have made the postseason over the past two years.

But this is fantasy football, where anything can happen and usually does. While statistics tell us the odds, they don't tell us about the AFFL karma and how it can change everything. If you don't believe that there is karma in fantasy football, consider this: Last season, there was a team in a fourteen team league that was in dead last, with the lowest points in the league, with a record of 1-5. A trade, some waiver wire pickups, and a whole heck of a lot of karma later, that team found themselves in the semi-finals. 

Anything is possible to those that believe.

Good luck in week three Amigos! May 0-3 stay far, far away.