AFFL Finals Preview: Hartan v Grabbers United

There has been much smack talk this season from team Hartan. They have used Hulk Hogan meme's and lengthy what's app messages to thrash the "weak" Mazoon division and have become this years "team everyone loves to hate." This Sunday, they either back-up their season-long tsunami sized trash talk and walk-off into the sunset with a big middle finger to the league, or be forced to endure 12 managers pissing on their fantasy grave with joy. Yes, this game has build-up galore.

Grabbers and Hartan are the 1 and 2 seeds respectively, and there is no doubt that they deserve to play for the 2015 AFFL title. Both teams are division winners. Both managers made great trades to prepare for the playoffs. Both have put up a helluva lot of points in their respective semi-final games. These teams have remained near the top of the league for the majority of the year and will now square-off to determine who will be the new AFFL title holder and get their name engraved on the AFFL trophy.

Below is a break-down of both teams, their history, the storylines, and prediction on just how this final will go down. Even though Grabbers was predicted to win the title at the beginning of the playoffs, that doesn't mean the new prediction will follow suit. Let's get to it.

Eliminate the Asterisks

Hartan

Highest previous finish: AFFL Champion '07 (10 team league)

Last Four seasons: Finished 4th place. Never has finished top 3

Story trying to be told: Erase the asterisks associated with the 2007 title and become a champ in the current 12 team format. 

Over the past eight seasons, Hartan has managed to be a team of underachieving consistency. Every year team two-face is near the top of the standings, makes the playoffs, then manages to fall apart during the semi-final match. This year marked the fourth straight season that Hartan had made the semi-finals, and a loss to Jaj Cousteau in 2015 would have started the "they're jinxed" discussion. However, Hartan managed to break-through, with a huge day from Drew Brees, and reach the final for the first time since 2007. Kudos to them for a job well done.

Since 2007, Hartan has had a monkey on their back. They have failed to reach the finals since winning the title on the arm of Tom Brady. But that was when the AFFL was a 10 team league, and anytime the Hartan title ever comes up, an asterisks is placed next to it, marking the "easier" title from a downsized league. Because of this, they haven't been thrust into the elite of the AFFL. The three years of semi-final losses and multiple seasons finishing in 8th place gave them a persona of a team that was "a consistent loser," and a "non-threat."

The truth is that making the semi's four straight seasons is a feat that no other team has achieved. Is Hartan a dynasty? Without a title, no, but this year they have a chance to put a crown on the top of their recent success and make three fourth place finishes look like a winner. 

Road to the Final

Hartan's road to the final really began last season, when they elected to select Odell Beckham Jr. in the 16th round of the draft. Locked and loaded for 2015 with an 8th round keeper in ODBJ, Hartan began the season with a powerful WR duo in Aj Green and ODBJ, but the rest of the team was uninspiring. One of the criticisms of a Hartan draft is that they are too conservative in their draft strategy, and the beginning of 2015 was evidence of this. However, they are excellent when it comes to the waiver wire and trades, and picking up Dion Lewis helped alleviate the fantasy dud that would be Andre Ellington. This move was a crucial part of the team starting the year 4-0 and taking the lead in the race for the Dolma Division. As the leader, Hartan deemed themselves the Hulk-Hogan of the AFFL, and proceeded to torment managers with Hulk Hogan Meme's to accentuate their dominance over all. It got annoying quickly, but they've been going strong with it all year. 

While Dion Lewis was a brilliant play, it was also offset by the blunder of dropping Cam Newton. Had Hartan held onto the current MVP of the NFL they would no doubt be the overwhelming favorite to take the crown. Dropping Cam also led to a week 5 loss to the Atomic Bomba and a relinquishing of the Dolma division lead. It was evident that Hartan and Bomba would be battling it out for the Division crown.

Entering week six with a 4-1 record and byes about to hit, Hartan could have gone either way. A loss to the Bomba could have derailed the team and ruined their morale. "Same old AFFL story," pundits began to say, "Bomba gonna take charge now and win this thing." However, Hartan hunkered down and knew that a week 11 rematch with the Atomic one was a chance to reclaim the Dolma throne. Nothing had been lost, and there was everything to gain.

They responded to the loss by winning four of their next five, including a blow-out victory against Vosgee gyank where they put up over 169 points. The offensive explosion was a showcase of just how high a ceiling this team had, and gave the league notice that this team was for real. But just when things hit a high note, disaster struck. Dion Lewis went down with a torn acl, leaving the Hartan veil thin at the RB position. The loss of Lewis lead to their lowest output of the season to that point, albeit in a win against Grabbers, and things began to look shaky again. Would this be the final blow to Hartan?  The Atomic Bomba match-up was coming around the corner and the roster looked depleted. The future of Hartan looked eerily similar to its past: winless.

By now,  Hulk Hogan meme's were being posted double time, but the production on the roster wasn't reflecting that sort of dominance. Enter, HBK. Just before the trade deadline, Hartan managed to plan for the future despite the present looking grim. Gambling that they would get the bye in the playoffs, they traded for Drew Brees and Stefon Diggs giving away Phillip Rivers and AJ Green. It was a bold move at the time, as the Bomba match-up loomed around the corner, but a move that proved to pay-off big time later on.

Hartan would lose to Bomba week 11 and to Hangin' week 12, but managed to hold onto the Dolma division crown by beating Awesomeness week 13. It was their first Division Title in their history, and meant that they would get a pass directly into the semi-final game where they could possibly play against the Bomba a third time. Instead, they faced the current champion Jaj Cousteau. (dum, dum, DUM!)

 

Semi-final game

Jaj Cousteau is a team nobody likes to play. Truly a wild card in any match, the Jajman had a team that was fairing well thanks to Blake Bortles and Allen Hurns. The two erupted week 14 to take out the Bomba, and had a positive match-up once again in week 14. Add to that Antonio Brown and his consistent point production, and Jaj Cousteau was a team that was deadly.

But the match-up couldn't have gone better for Hartan. Despite Antonio Brown doing everything humanly possible to keep Cousteau in the match, nearly all the major players on the Cousteau line-up put up a dud. Javrious Allen was benched after a fumble and finished with -.2. The Carolina defense fell apart late against the NYG and finished with negative points. The match-up was over midway through Sunday, when ODBJ caught a TD against the invincible Josh Norman, and put Hartan up for good. All that was left was a three hundred yard, three TD performance from Drew Brees on MNF to seal the deal. The ticket to the finals was stamped. Hartan had done it. He was in.

Now the question remains, can they win it? It has been a road of ups and downs and injuries for team two-face. They have managed to avoid the pitfalls and gotten lucky at the right times. Heading into the final has them on the doorstep of greatness, but there is another team that has something to say about how the Hartan story will end. Enter the Grabbers.

Rocky Balboa is Back

Grabbers United.

Highest previous finish: 2nd place. Lost in finals 2012

Last Four seasons: Only 2 playoff appearances.

Story trying to be told: To win the title and cap an incredible rise from being on the bottom of the AFFL for years.

Grabbers United's history is riddled with years of disappointment and let down, with a few bright spots in between. They haven't enjoyed playoff success many times over the years, making the post-season only twice over their 9 year career. However, despite the lowly beginning, Grabbers has been one of the fastest risers in the league, after their first playoff and finals appearance in 2012. A return to the playoffs happened in 2014, with a fifth place finish, and now Grabbers finds himself in the finals again. In so doing, he becomes only the fourth franchise to make the finals twice in the current twelve team format (Bomba, Prime Time, Awesomeness are the others). Its a feat that is a testament to the great managerial job Grabbers has done over the last three seasons. His knowledge and instincts have grown leaps and bounds, and this young Jedi has become a kin to the AFFL force and has used it in 2015 at will.

With three trips to the playoffs in four seasons, and two finals appearances, Grabbers has elevated his teams status closer to elite status. The one thing that will get you that status is a title, and Grabbers is salivating at the chance of doing so. The story that he is writing is one of redemption. Having lost a chance at such an honor for years, Grabbers can now lay to rest the years of disappointment and write a new chapter for the future. He could become the sixth unique team to win an AFFL title, and become the newest manager to have his name etched into the AFFL trophy. It would be the AFFL's version of Rocky, a team that was in the dumps, that climbed the mountain against all odds. Needless to say, he has a lot of support around the league.

Road to the Finals

Grabbers has three children. The highest number of kids of any AFFL managers household. It is no doubt that those kids played into his AFFL karma over the past three years. This season was one that saw a Grabbers roster seemingly void of talent, win week after week. It baffled experts and infuriated managers. However, like a microcosm of his own history, Grabbers would transform into an AFFL butterfly late into the season to legitimize his chances for a finals birth.

2015 began swimmingly for the Grabbers, as the team started off winning three of their first four games. Their point totals were erratic, and hardly ones that gave anyone the sense that they were a serious contender in the title race. With two outings of 78 and 60 total points, it was clear to most that Grabbers would be an up and down team without much pop from the roster. A nine win season wasn't going to happen without some changes, so things were a bit of a mystery for the franchise.

Sass is Boss

This couldn't have been more evident than the week 6 match-up against BDiddy. Grabbers escaped with a narrow 119.68-118.78 victory. It was indeed a lucky win, and prompted Grabbers to claim that despite his 5-2 record, he is "the worst team in the league." Frequently pandering for a lower place in the weekly power ranks, Grabbers tried all that he could to turn the jinx tide in his favor and harness some AFFL karma. It worked, as he won the next two games in a row, all while scoring 105 and 93 points in consecutive weeks. It became quite clear that the schedule Grabbers had was helping him immensely, and that the AFFL karma was on his side from the beginning.

Still, Grabbers wasn't in any position to make the playoffs, nor was he even a favorite to take the division title. Cobra Kai and a fast rising Awesomeness, not to mention a stubborn Jaj Cousteau were all hovering around the top of the division and looked to be the more likely candidates to make it to the top of the division race. Something had to be done in order to quell Grabbers lack luster point production. The team had pulled off waiver wire pick-ups and managed supremely to this point, consistently starting players that were the correct calls, but how long could that go on.

Then disaster struck as Andrew Luck was lost for what would be the season. Grabbers was now faced with a line-up that had only one stud on it, Gronkowksi, and he was injured as well. If the finals were to come, they certainly weren't going to come with the current roster. Grabbers then looked for a trade.

After stubbornly holding out on trades for most of the season (and demanding way to much during negotiations as well) Grabbers struck a deal with Cobra Kai: Gronk for Cam Newton and Greg Olsen. It was a superb move, as Gronk hadn't been spectacular all season, and Cam had just began to tear things up. With the trade, Grabbers now had a legit QB and lost very little at the TE position. With the return of Sammy Watkins to relevance and the emergence of Darren McFadden, the team was putting up their highest totals of the year by seasons end.

Grabbers finished the season winning three straight, and posting 153 and 146 point totals the final two weeks of the season to capture the Mazoon division crown. Their high point production was a direct result of the trade for Cam Newton, and it has continued right through the playoffs.

Semi-final Game

Grabbers had a pass to the Semi-finals, where an old champion had resurrected from obscurity. Awesomeness found himself in the semi's for the first time in 5 seasons, and was one of the hottest teams in the AFFL. Grabbers had his work cut out for him, as the match-up did not exactly favor the Mazoon division champ.

It became quite clear early on in the match that this was going to be a high scoring affair. Grabbers had players go on Saturday evening, with Marshall, Dmac and the Jets defense giving him the early lead. None of those players did anything spectacular, however, they set a nice cushion for Grabbers to begin with.

Once Sunday hit, Awesomeness went to work, with Kamer Aiken and Jordan Reed exploding for huge days. With two players, Awesomeness cut heavily into the lead, and this became a race to 150 points. Soon, the KC defense would join in, with a pick six, putting Awesomeness in striking range of Grabbers. Down only 20 points, with three players left, Awesomeness took the advantage over Grabbers late into the early games.

Grabbers however found his answer once again in the same players that carried him to this point. Sammy Watkins showed up for a huge TD to stretch the lead some, and Cam Newton caught fire, throwing 5 touchdown passes against the NYG. The 160 point total was enough to hold off the 130 points put up by Awesomeness. Had Awesomeness played Desean Jackson and Danny Woodhead, they would have reached the final, but it was not to be. This was the year of the Grabbers, a team that had managed to a 'T' and had pulled off successful move after successful move.

Now the question remains, who wins the final?

Finals Breakdown

Both these squads have stud Quarterbacks, solid Wide Receivers, and good running backs. They are complete teams, that haven't too many holes. However, both will be relying on plug-in players for different reasons. This will dramatically effect the outcome of the match. Whichever team gets the most out of their plug-in guys will without a doubt be crowned champion.

Injuries for both teams will directly impact this game as well. While Grabbers comes into the match-up relatively healthy, Hartan has a few key players that are either out or questionable to play. The top of this list begins with Drew Brees. Brees has been on fire of late, and with Cam Newton on the other side of the match-up, Hartan will need a big outing from the QBposition. They managed to pick up Kirk Cousins in case Brees can't go, but relying on Cousins isn't ideal.

The suspension of ODBJ will also be a huge loss for Hartan, as the match-up was a positive one. Jeremy Maclin, Diggs, and Tyler Lockett are serviceable, but don't offer the upside that ODBJ did. We will safely say that without ODBJ, the Hartan WR core does take a hit.

One injury working in Hartan's favor is the one to Lesean McCoy. Having picked up Karlos Williams off the wire, the team now has a viable option to play in the flex should McCoy be ruled out. It is a crafty move by Hartan and one that could swing the match-up in their favor.

Here is the ultimate positional breakdown between the two teams and their history amongst one another. Our prediction follows.

Hartan vs Grabbers United

• Grabbers United: 108 ppw
• Hartan: 116 ppw

Hartan leads series 6-4 head-to-head

Grabbers 1-0 vs Hartan in playoffs.

Positional breakdown

QB Position

Drew Brees vs Jac/Kirk Cousins vs Phi vs Cam Newton vs Atl

The Qb match-up is as close to even as possible, barring Drew Brees playing. Both starters have the potential to go for 40 points, and it wouldn't be surprising if that happened. Cam Newton had 29 points two weeks ago vs. Atlanta, so he can be projected for a similar output. Brees plays a horrific Jags secondary, as does Cousins in Phi. Either should be a shoe-in for a similar outing as Cam. The only twist is the lack of a running game for Cam and the injury of Brees. Drew could be scaled back as far as pass attempts if he plays, while Cam will pick up some more yards on the ground.

Advantage: Grabbers

WR Position

Maclin, Lockett, Diggs Vs Marshall, Watkins, Randle

It was a terrible time for Hartan to lose ODBJ to a one game suspension. Not having the stud receiver in the line-up will force Hartan to rely on WR2/3 types with upside. The match-ups for these receivers play to their favor, but they will have their work cut out for them battling Marshall and Watkins. Both have been solid and offer more upside than the other three. Grabbers also has Ruben Randle, and can piggy back off the ODBJ for some points. Ultimately, this match-up is going to be won or lost by the hands of Sammy Watkins and Marshall. If both produce at the level they have been, this will be another gain for Grabbers.

Advantage: Grabbers

RB Position

Todd Gurley, James White, Karlos Williams, Ryan Matthews vs Darren McFadden, Denard Robinson, Duke Johnson

While Hartan doesn't have the upside at the WR, they do at the RB position. Both Gurley and White have been solid in recent weeks, but the key player of the group is Karlos Williams. Should he get the start, he has RB1 upside and could eat into Dmac's and Denard Robinsons total. Darren McFadden doesn't have a great match-up, but Denard does, against the second worst rush defense in the league. If Yeldon sits again, Denard should produce close to RB1 value as well. Still, with Gurley as the best player on the board, the edge goes to Hartan.

Advantage: Hartan

TE Position

Delanie Walker vs Greg Olsen

Delanie Walker is a good player on a bad team, but he gets a lions share of the targets weekly. He can take a short pass to the house at any moment as evidence of his week 15 outing. On the flip side, Greg Olsen is a mean machine. No other TE has produced like Gronk in the league, and Olsen is a weekly threat for 20+ points. With Cam Newton on fire, and the Falcons being a far better match-up for a TE than Houston, we have to lean slightly to Olsen here.

Advantage: Grabbers

Defense/Special Teams

Boswell, Minn Def vs Gano, Oak Def

Stephen Gostkowski is the only kicker that has been better for fantasy than Gano. While Boswell has been solid of late, the Carolina offense is a gift that keeps on giving. The kicker/Qb strategy is paying off big time for Sass, and should continue this week. On the defensive front, Hartan will look to take advantage of a Giants team missing their best player and start the Vikings. Oakland, while in a good match-up, isn't a great defense and could be in for a huge let down.

Advantage: Push

Final Verdict

In a year where close calls were the norm and line-ups fell apart and then came back to life, the AFFL crown will go to a team that has endured the most. Hartan is currently enduring the loss of players to the final minute, and Grabbers has managed that all season as well with the loss of Luck. There is something to be said about the AFFL Karma, it always gravitates towards teams that have had it the hardest and have survived. No team has had it harder. Losing Luck, putting up an anemic 1400 points. Three kids to manage at home. Grabbers is poised to be this years AFFL champion. Its been written in the fantasy book of the gods and shall soon be etched on an AFFL trophy. Mery Xmas Grabbers. Your Ass is the winner.

Winner: Grabbers United (144.13-121.22)

AFFL Mega Playoff Preview '15

After thirteen long weeks of battle, the fantasy football gods have chosen the six teams that will duke it out for the 2015 AFFL crown: Hartan, Grabbers United, Awesomeness, Jaj Cousteau, Cobra Kai, and Atomic Bomba. Are these the six best teams in the AFFL? Many argue that HBK Shant Michaels and perhaps even BDiddy deserve to be in the playoffs as they finished the year white hot. HBK managed to trade his way back from a 1-5 start to narrowly missing out on the sixth seed. It just wasn't meant to be. That being said, these six teams were for the most part consistently in the top half of the standings for the majority of the year and are worthy of their playoff position. There are plenty of story lines to get excited about. Lets lay those out first.

Jaj Cousteau goes for Back-to-Back Titles

It has been done twice before, the last time by the Atomic Bomba ('11,'12), but Jaj Cousteau can become the third back-to-back champion of the AFFL. The Jajman has done an excellent job managing his team once again, finishing the year with an 8-5 record and 4th overall seed. Where others zig, he zags, and his reliance on non-sexy names has paid off huge, as Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, and others have helped keep the team afloat after the loss of Jamaal Charles. However, of the former back-to-back title winners, only one team, Atomic Bomba ('12), has won the title being anything less than a 2 seed. Jaj will have to go through a dangerous Bomba squad and the top seed Hartan in order to get to the final. The road is not easy, and with tough match-ups to certain key players, the going could get rough. Will Jaj climax twice two years in a row? Answer is cumming. 

The Return of Two Lalazarian Managed Teams in the Playoffs. 

From 2008 to 2012, a Lalazarian managed team won the AFFL title. It is remarkable to believe that for five straight years this fact held true. Now, for the first time since 2009, the Atomic Bomba and Awesomeness have both made the post-season and have a chance to meet in the final once again. Should that happen, it would put both franchises in a unique place, as having been the only two teams to meet in the final three times. With six titles between the two of them, there is no question that these two are among the favorites to end up with their name etched into the AFFL trophy. Awesomeness has been steadily climbing the power ranks for the past several weeks, and has a formidable team that is centered around AP, Hopkins and Rodgers. The Atomic Bomba hasn't been as fortunate, as he has dropped two of his last three games and saw the play of Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb completely fall off. However, the Bomba karma is still strong, as evidence of his Monday night Miracle to get a must-have week 13 win. Both these squads have a ton of experience and could peak at the right time to reclaim the AFFL crown as their own.

Grabbers Looks to Beat Entire Field of Champions to claim his first Title.

Yes, the postseason is loaded with the cream-of-the-crop of the AFFL when it comes to championships. Five of the six teams represent the entire list of AFFL champions since the leagues inception: Atomic Bomba ('06,'08,'11,'12), Awesomeness ('09,'10), Hartan ('07), Cobra Kai ('13), Jaj Cousteau ('14). The exception is of course Grabbers United, who will no doubt be a fan favorite to upset the field of title winners to capture his first AFFL crown. And he's got a good a shot as any. Already in the semi-finals with a bye, Grabbers needs only one victory to reach the championship. The last time the team was this far along in the playoffs was 2012, where they finished in 2nd place, losing to the Bomba in the title game. Grabbers has come a long way, and has manged exceptionally well. The team may not be the most explosive, but with Cam and Olsen producing at a high level (and with a favorable schedule) the team has a great shot of outlasting a field of AFFL Champions to claim one of his own. What a story that would be.

Hartan Trying to Erase "10 team Title Astrisk" from Record

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They have made the playoffs four years straight, finishing fourth three times and sixth last year. They are one of the more consistent franchises in the AFFL, and yes they have an AFFL title. So how come Hartan isn't regarded as elite? One factor working against them is that the title they won was the one season the AFFL was a ten team league. Many pundits put an astrisk next to this title because it was before the 12-team format that the AFFL now functions under. Since the change in '08, Hartan has never placed in the top 3, leaving many to label the 2007 title a fluke. After losing in the semifinals from 2011-2013, Hartan desperately needs to make it to the Championship game and get over the hump. They have never been the number one overall seed, and should they fail to win in their semi-final match-up, all the heavy smack talk that they have laid on the league will come back on 'em ten fold. Hows that for pressure brotha'?

The Answer to the Cobra Kai Philosophy "Never Say Die to a Trade."

After a season long trading excursion by Cobra Kai, the team has put together a roster that is theoretically built for the playoffs. Accumulating players with favorable week 14-16 schedules, the Kai opted to emphasize match-up based planning in order to go after his second title. Now we will finally get the answer to whether this strategy paid off or not. Could the loss of Gronkowski be the sign of a collapse set to come? Did he make one trade too many? Will the heavy investment in the Steelers offense comeback to bite him? It will be fascinating to watch team Cobra go into the week 14 battle with Awesomeness knowing that three starters will be affected by one game. Ultimately, the league will be waiting anxiously to find out if the match-up based philosophy paid off, or if Kai outsmarted himself taking three steps too many.

These story-lines make for an intriguing playoffs, but they don't do anything in telling us who is most primed to breakout as the top team in 2015. To determine that, we have to look at the cold, hard facts of which team is peaking at the right time, which team is deep enough, and most importantly, which team has the most luck to carry them through. After all, this is survival of the luckiest, and the team with the most four-leaf clovers up their rear will be crowned champion in late December. So lets get to it.

How high is that Ceiling?

To win the AFFL title, you'll need to put up a plethora of points. The days of eeking out victories by barely clearing a 100 points are gone. Scores are on average at a higher clip these days than they were in years before. It use to be said that a 130 point total was a great day. Now, 140s are norms. With the point-a-palooza going around the AFFL like whooping cough, this years crop of six teams will need to make like Rappin' Fortay and "Tear the roof off the Motha" if they wish to remain a playa in the "Players Club." Long live 90's rap.

Of the six teams in the post-season, five have posted highs of 150 points or more at least once this year. If a team were to put up that amount in the playoffs, it would most certainly garnish them a win.

On the flip-side, a low total in any playoff game would be catastrophic. While there were many weeks where teams had a host of players on bye or injured, we still must consider just how low a team went during the year to see what their floor is. A week with a low point total isn't detrimental. Multiple low weeks is. Furthermore, it's important to see when these low weeks occurred. An 85 point week during the third week of the season is not nearly as bad as one week 12.

Below is a chart highlighting the highs and lows of all the playoff teams during the year, taking into consideration the weeks that those highs and low occurred as well.

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There are two things that jump out right away. The first, Awesomeness had a hell-of-a-week scoring 188 points. Two, Grabbers has failed to score 100 points five times and has a bye. Sometimes life isn't fair.

As far as high ceilings go, nobody seems to be higher than Awesomeness, who topped off at 188, but has five other weeks of 135+, three of which were in the second half of the season.  If AP, Rodgers, and Hopkins can manage to get on the same page, this team will be difficult to stop.

Hartan managed the second highest total of the season, but has only been able to clear 135 points one other week. With four other weeks where the team failed to put up 100 points, this team could may not have the offensive explosion to compete a the treetops like the other teams. What is more concerning for Hartan is that three of the four low total weeks came weeks 10,11,12. This team isn't peaking at the right time.

The same could be said of Bomba. Sneaking into the playoffs by the luck of Dez bryant can't mask the painful truth that the squad has scored below a 100 points in three of the past five weeks. The loss of Edelman could be a major factor in this down swing and something the team wont be able to overcome.

Two teams that seem to be peaking at the right time are Cobra and Grabbers. Cobra has managed his highest point total during the last two weeks of the regular season and Grabbers finished out weeks 12 and 13 with monstrous outings. Every season its the team that is peaking at the end that runs the table, and both these squads have a lot of good things going for them.

Lastly, Jaj, the former Champ, sits square in the middle of the ranks. His 153 point high week isn't too shabby, and he only has two low weeks during the second half of the season. Cousteau has a history of being an outlier when it comes to any data so we mustn't hold the Jajman to any sort of standards. He's his own enigma and there is no figuring out exactly what any thing means when it comes to his fantasy performances. 

Conclusion

Cobra and Awesomeness look to be the two teams that have the best odds at putting up a huge amount of points, along with Grabbers for his late peak. Bomba, Hartan are lower on the spectrum and will need to make the right roster calls in order to maximize points. Jaj can go either way.

1. Awesomeness ++++
2. Cobra +++
3. Grabbers +++
4. Jaj Cousteau ++
5. Bomba +
6. Hartan +

Injury Impact

Nothing can impact a playoff race like injuries. With the NFL taking more precautions with concussions and blows to the head, any player could be out for the game at any moment, swinging the outcome of a match-up immediately. The healthiest teams in the fantasy post-season are the teams that have the most line-up choices, and thus, have better odds to win any given week.

Below is a chart of significant injuries to teams and their possible replacements.

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Here, we notice that Cobra Kai and Hartan are the hardest hit when it comes to injuries. It could be argued that the loss of Ingram is a very big blow to Hartan, as the he ha been a rock solid option all year long. Cobra will get Gronk back eventually, however, in what shape is up in the air. With Will Tye as the only replacemant for Gronk, Cobra will be at a loss of points should he sit a week. Hartan has capable replacements. Jaj will be getting Eiffert back this week. 

For the most part, most teams are healthy going into the post-season and won't be affective too severly. It must also be mentioned that some players have a potential of returning from long absences to help teams out, namely Edelman for Bomba, and Luck for Grabbers. 

Injuries only test a teams depth as teams go deeper into the playoffs. All teams seem deep enough to handle the losses of positional players for the most part. The one benefit of fantasy football this year, there are plenty of WRs to choose from. 

Conclusion

Cobra and Hartan could be the hardest hit by the injury bug. Others, not so much. 

1. Cobra Kai ++++
2. Hartan ++++
3. Jaj ++
4. Bomba
5. Grabbers
6. Awesomeness

So who is going to win this years AFFL title? Here is the case for every team followed by the final predictions for the playoffs.

Jaj Cousteau

Regular Season record: 8-5

Last three - 1-2

Why he'll win it all: Jaj Cousteau packs a big whallop at the WR position with Antonio Brown. Capable of single-handedly winning match-ups by himeself, Brown has a very favorable week 14 and 16 match-up, with one tough one against Denver. The Bortles and Hurns combo could also be a boon for the Jaj meister. Bortles is coming off back to back huge weeks, and faces a suspect Indy pass defense week 14, along with a very poor Falcons team week 15. Eiffert is a huge redzone threat for Dalton and has been a top TE all season long.  Any week that Eiffert and Brown go off will surely provide a win.

With a top notch defense in Carolina and the above core, Jaj has 150+ potential, making him one of the favorites in the playoffs. 

Why he won't win it all: With losses in two of the last three games, Jaj isn't peaking at the right time.   What was once a three headed monster at RB, has now turned into somewhat of an enigma. West is caught in a timeshare, Ivory is losing touches to Powell, and Allen has a ridicullously difficult playoff schedule. Without help from the supporting cast of players, Jaj may not have enough of a complete roster to deal with a team that is loaded at RB and WR. It seems that things break Jaj's way, but an injury to Brown, Eiffert or Bortles will surely put pressure on the RBs to produce, and they may not be able to. 

Prediction: Eliminated 1st Round by Bomba

Awesomeness

Regular Season record: 8-5

Last three: 2-1

Why he'll win it all: Simply put, the team is dangerous. Rodgers, Hopkins and AP are a formidable trio. Hopkins has been an animal on the field and has put up top 5 WR numbers. It is almost a given that he'll be producing on a weekly basis. Rodgers won't be denyed too many weeks, and the week 14 and 15 match-ups are favorable. The supporting cast isn't too shabby either. Gio Bernard is being utilized far more than others give credit. With Rodgers and Reed at TE, Awesomeness has a nice duo to choose from. Djax provides a solid, albeit inconsistent WR option, as does Snead. If they can stay healthy, there is no reason this team can't win 3 games. 

70+ points from Hopkins, AP and Rodgers is dueable, which mean so are the finals.

Why he won't win it all: Match-ups. The playoffs are a lot about match-ups, both for players on the roster and on the schedule. Awesomeness has the misfortune of getting both. Bad match-ups for Rodgers and AP during week 16 and 14 respectively will be difficult to overcome. Couple that with a first round match-up against Cobra and a redhot Grabbers team, and Awesomeness could be over his head when it comes to scoring enough points. 

Prediction: 1st round exit to Cobra Kai

Cobra Kai

Regular Season record: 7-6

Last three:  1-2

Why he'll win it all: Cobra has crafted his line-up like a chemist in a lab, carefully mixing the right players for the perfect roster. In the process of doing so, the team managed to have three Steelers in the starting roster. Normally, this can be a huge risk, but if a risk like this is to be taken, the Steelers is a great team to do it with. Big Ben has been on fire of late, and the offense as a whole will support plenty of play makers. Cobra has the most direct method of victory, and it hinges on the Steelers play. Should the Pittsburgh offense do what it normally does, this team will be very tough to beat. Oh, and we didn't even mention Calvin Johnson and Gronk. Those guys are great too.

4 studs on the roster gives this team a path to the playoff finale. 

Why he won't win it all: For the same reason he will, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fantasy is a cruel mistress, and when things are suppose to go a certain way, they often times don't. Pittsburgh plays Denver at home, in what could be a weather effected game. Couple that with an offense that will be facing the leagues top defense, and there could be a drought of points awaiting the Cobra Kai. Should he manage to get to that game, Grabbers will anxiously be waiting with his Panther stack in a very favorable match-up. It is difficult to see the Kai escaping that scenario.

Prediction: Semi-final loss to Grabbers. 

Hartan

Regular Season record: 9-4

Last three: 1-2

Why he'll win it all: With some questionable decisions to end the regular season, Hartan managed to sneak into the playoffs and straight to the semi-finals by earning the bye with a victory week 16. The roster has some great names on it, Brees, ODBJ, and Todd Gurly to name a few. The team hasn't errupted for a ton of points like others, but have enough upside to do so on any given week. With nice balance across the board and a Drew Brees schedule that just screams big outings, Hartan won't be left out of the race. Should Brees do what the team traded him for, and Gurly return to his early form, this team has enough in the key positions to win two games. 

Gurly, the world of victory rests on thee.

Why they won't win it all: Losing Mark Ingram is going to be difficult. Ingram was doing a ton in the Saints offense and was reliable for weekly output. Yes, Shaun Draughn looks to be capable of replacing Ingram, but he's not exactly of the same skill set. Couple that with a difficult week 15 match-up for ODBJ and Todd Gurly and this team may find the point total a bit on the light side. Nothing will hurt more than losing to either Bomba or Jaj in the semi's again. This team had high hopes for a title. Ingram's loss may ruin those hopes.

Prediction: Loss to Bomba in week 15

Atomic Bomba

Regular Season record: 8-5

Last three: 1-2

Why he'll win it all: Every year there is a team that just manages to squeek into the playoffs and runs the table. Last year was Jaj. This year, Bomba takes that title. The luck factor is high with the Bomba, having survived a week 13 war with HBK for the last playoff spot. But make no mistake about it, the Bomba has the roster to put up a fight each week. Palmer has been as steady as they come, and Freeman is a solid weekly RB. Mix in Amendola, John Brown showing up, and the possible return of Edelman, and there is a lot to like on the roster. Denver is also a defense that will give Bomba an advantage a the position during most the weeks. Should all things click for the Bomba, a 150+ outing isn't out of the norm. 

Deja Vu all over again? Bomba could be in the finals should Palmer and Freeman carry the roster.

Why he won't win it all: The one thing working against the Bomba is inconsitency. The team hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard the last few weeks, and really hasn't done much in the second half of the season. There really is no telling what this team will do. Furthermore, there is a bit of a concern with the RB position. Freeman has two match-ups with a tough Carolina run def, and Hillman and Murray don't seem like high upside Rb2s. There may not be enough pop at the RB spot to survive down weeks from Wrs.

Prediction: Loss to Grabbers in the finals. 

Grabbers United

Regular Season record: 9-4

Last three: 2-1

Why he'll win it all: This team has managed to earn the bye in the Mazoon division in some fashion not understood by many. They have lost players like Luck, seen Rbs rotate throught the year in the starting roster, and managed to win games when scoring 90 points. All these point to one ineviteable truth, Grabbers is a team of destiny. But not everything was simply luck. Grabbers did a superb job managing the roster and trading for the right players. The Cam/Greg Olsen tandum is deadly, and is set-up with a great schedule. McFadden should get enough work to be a solid Rb, and Watkins has been producing big of late. 

At the end of the day, we must ask ourselves, which team is most likely to overcome the ailments, injuries, bad match-ups, and overall chaos that could happen at any given week during the post-season? The answer has been Grabbers all year long. We don't see that changing during weeks 14-16

Prediction: Finishes week 16 with a Victory an captures AFFL Title

Round 1 - Bomba defeats Jaj, Cobra defeats Awesomeness

Round 2 - Bomba defeats Hartan, Grabbers defeats Cobra

Final - Grabbers defeats Bomba

Good luck to all the teams. 

AFFL WEEK 13 Playoff Scenarios: 2 Divisions and Three Playoff Seeds up for Grabs

It has come down to this. One week, eight teams, three playoff spots, and two Division crowns all to be decided on the final week of the AFFL fantasy regular season. The commissioner wanted parody, and it looks like that is exactly what he got. No team has established themselves as the clear favorite to win it all this year, and with a cluster of teams vying for position in the post-season, the AFFL has its most intense playoff race in years.

Will upstart HBK Shant Michaels, winner of five of the last six games, sneak his way into the into the playoffs? Will the emergence of Thomas Rawls carry BDiddy into the AFFL's sacred six team playoff? Who will win the Dolma and Mazoon divisions? Will Bomba fail to make the playoffs a second year in a row? These are just a few of the story lines that grip the AFFL week 13.

Sorting through the cluster can be a mess. Many teams have multiple scenarios that will get them into the playoffs. Below are those scenarios, along with odds of that team making the playoffs. Enjoy.

Team Scenarios

BDiddy

Loss and BDiddy is out.

Win and the following scenarios would get BDiddy in:

• Scenario 1 - Bdiddy outscores Jaj by 46.11
• Scenario 2 - Fails to outscore Jaj by 46.11. Bomba loses and BDiddy outscores Bomba by 26.33 and HBK loses or HBK wins and BDiddy also outscores HBK by 16.13
• Scenario 3 - Cobra kai loses and BDiddy outscores Cobra by 88.57

Odds of getting in: 15%

HBK Shant Michaels

Loss and HBK is out

Win and the following scenarios would get HBK in:

• Scenario 1 - Bomba loses and HBK outscores Bomba by 10.21 and BDiddy loses or BDiddy wins but fails to outscore HBK by 16.13
• Scenario 2 - Jaj loses and HBK outscores Jaj by 29.99
• Scenario 3 - Cobra kai loses and HBK outscores Cobra by 71.45

Odds of getting in: 15%

Atomic Bomba

Win and Bomba is in

Loss and the following scenarios would get Bomba in:

• Scenario 1 - HBK and BDiddy loss
• Scenario 2 - HBK loss and BDiddy wins but fails to outscore Bomba by 26.33
• Scenario 3 - BDiddy loss and HBK wins but fails to outscore Bomba by 10.13
• Scenario 4 - Jaj loss and Bomba outscores Jaj by 19.79
• Scenario 5 - Cobra loss and Bomba outscores Cobra by 59.25

Odds of getting in: 70%

Bomba would win the division with a win and a Hartan loss

Odds of winning division: 50%

Jaj Cousteau

Win and Jaj is in

Loss and the following scenarios would get Jaj in:

• Scenario 1 - HBK loss and BDiddy fails to outscore Jaj by 46.11
• Scenario 2 - HBK win, but fails to outscore Jaj by 29.99 and BDiddy win, but fails to outscore Jaj by 46.11 or Bomba loss and Bomba fails to outscore Jaj by 19.79
• Scenario 3 - Cobra loss and Jaj outscores Cobra by 41.47.

Odds of getting in: 75%

Cobra Kai

Win and Cobra is in

Loss and the following scenarios would get Cobra in:

• Scenario 1 - Would only miss playoffs if three of the four teams Bomba, HBK, Jaj, BDiddy win and outscore Cobra's current margin of victory. Highly unlikely.

Odds of getting in: 95%

Can win division with:

• Scenario 1 - Win and both Grabbers and Awesomeness lose.

Odds of winning division: 33%

Awesomeness

Clinched Playoff birth

Can win division with:

• Scenario 1 - Win and Grabbers loss

Odds of winning division: 25%

Grabbers

Clinched Playoff birth

Can win division with:

• Scenario 1 - Win
• Scenario 2 - Loss, and Awesomeness and Cobra Kai loss

Odds of winning division: 57%

Hartan

Clinched Playoff birth

Can win division with:

• Scenario 1 - Win
• Scenario 2 - Bomba Loss

Playoff Seeding Predicitions

Hartan (1), Grabbers (2), Awesomeness (3), Cobra Kai (4), Bomba (5), Jaj Cousteau (6)

Magnum Sev.i releases rap album entitled "Still the team to beat B***h". League asks managers to go to grief counseling.

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After beginning the year by trading away lots of great players for a few not so great ones, the Magnum Sev.i has done what they do best: Dig themselves a hole they can't climb out of. 

Yet despite the team sitting at 1-7, managers Danny and Sevag still believe they are the team to beat and have released a rap album expressing their confidence.

"We're just tired," said Sevag. "We're tired of having to convince everyone all the time that we are the team to beat. So, we just wanted to drop this album and put it all out there at once. Still the team to beat, b***h is something that is close to my heart. We're still the team to beat. I added the bitch because it sounds harder."

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It is unclear whether or not Sevag had been drinking or under the influence of narcotics during the time he made these statements, but the confidence the team has with the albums release has led the league to intervene and ask that both managers go to counseling. Danny refuses to do so, and was outspoken about his disgust on how the league operates.

"If I should go to counseling for grief, then Ara should go to counseling for suffering, because he makes everyone in this league suffer with his idiotic trades and nonsensical rants. Get that guy a couch. Get us a throne. Still the team to beat b***, now available on Itunes and Amazon music."

The album features many interesting track titles, such as Makin' it rain FAAB money and Accept the trade Motherf***er. Here is the complete list.

1. Still the team to beat bitch
2. What round is he?
3. 1 and 7 and in heaven
4. Dropped an RB1 just cuz
5. Makin' it rain FAAB money
6. Accept the trade Motherf****
7. Stat correction erection
8. F*** inactives
9. My kicker got blanked
10. Bomba sucks my bomba
11. Got the lowest points
12. Wife be trippin. (extended cut) featuring Lucy
13. Weekly High

The album has been given a two and half star rating average on itunes and many complain that the lyrics are too offensive for teens and not offensive enough to fantasy football pundits. Others rave about the real life story that Sevag captures in his lyrics. Take for example these lines from the track Got the lowest points where Danny raps:

"Anquan Boldin in the flex. Inactive? F*** it. Andre Johnson aint shit. Even with Luck in. Senior Bowl for the old and slow. Rather a #1 who's out, than a 3 who don't show. "

Or how about this gem from Stat correction erection:

Point two! What do I do? It's 3 am. Can I call a friend? Lost my mind, when I lost the game. Wake up at six, will the score be the same? Hear my prayers lords of fantasy (echo: lords of fantasy). can you get me sprung?  You have my attention. Morning wood. Need that stat correction erection.

It's highly unlikely that Sev.i will make the postseason with a 1-7 record, but stranger things have happened. Nevertheless, it looks like their confidence isn't taking a back seat. We'll leave you with the second verse from the third track "1 and 7 and in heaven."

Mama caught me with a bag. Never liked smokin fags. And if you hoes wanna know, then get off of the rag

Before you, there was me. Rhyming smooth like Hennessy. Now things going wrong, but that's just livin.

1 and 7 and I'm still in heaven. 1 and 7 and I'm still in heaven.

That's right Sev.i. Just keep singing. Everything will be okay.

HBK gets Mani-Pedi at Cobra Kai approved Salon to Change Fantasy Karma.. and it works! Vosgee rumored to have booked appt. today.

After starting the season an abysmal 1-5, HBK needed a change. He needed to rebuild from the ground up. So what does he do? He goes and gets a pedicure.

Always "trying something new" is HBK's mojo, and his decision to go to a nail salon early Saturday morning falls in line with his off-tangent behavior during the football season. Sure, many people will point to this past weeks acquisition of Lamar Miller in a trade from Prime Time as being the primary reason for his week 7 point explosion, but HBK believes that it has more to do with the nail file an asian woman took to his pinkie toe than any running back.

"Rebuilding is an eleven part process," said HBK, "It's one part great trade, then 10 parts pedicure. One for each toe." 

HBK would comment on whether or not the decision to go to Images Luxury Nail Lounge was completely voluntary, but added, "nothing I do is voluntary. It's because I have to win."

Further adding to the story is the peculiar connection that Images Luxury Nail Lounge has with another AFFL team, Cobra Kai. It seems that the nail salon is "Cobra kai approved," as the dojo master has himself come to this salon as well. Could HBK be trying to mimic the forces of the Cobra Kai, seeing how successful they have been? The recent multi-player trade with  Prime Time and visit to a Cobra Kai approved dojo certainly suggests that this is so.

Here is a photo-timeline of HBKs trip to get his little piggies all cleaned up. 

Pre-pedicure- HBK House: 8:01 am. 

Pre-Pedi. HBK looks to be in a world of confusion as to what to expect. He's obviously been mentally stressed over the last 6 weeks of the AFFL season. He's even forgotten how to smile. If we didn't know that things got better for HBK after week 7,  it would be cruel to post these pics. 

Images Luxury Nail Salon: 8:45am 

Because if you're gonna go pedicure, you go in luxury. Notice the symbolic nature of the pic. HBK's season has been handicapped, yet, like the flowers brimming along the side, there is always hope. That is unless you are Magnum Sev.i at 1-6, then there is no hope. Sorry, no 'Stache for you!

Enter Sandman: 8:45am

"You like Clitter gel?" A mother and daughter are getting their nails done too. No doubt HBK is using the two to help his PR image. Rumor is that the little girl told him that his team would have 165 points this week. HBK's been frantically trying to get a hold of her ever since Sunday night. Notice the Cobra Kai approved sign on the front desk. Is this collusion? AFFL reports on this next week.

Dive! Dive! 9:33 am.

Feet soaking in minerals and salts that will render a very relaxing experience, all  for the super low price of $17. You can do this in your own bath, but that's not the point. At this moment, HBK is feeling euphoric and using mental imagery to visualize a successful Sunday, while broken English is spoken around him. It's all very exciting. Bubbles!

File it away: 9:45am

HBK's 165 point week 7 outing was at this point a lock. With the pedicure complete, there was nothing the Atomic Bomba could have done. Well, he could have countered the HBK pedicure with a manicure, pedicure, and massage trifecta to offset the karma, but there just wasn't enough time. Stretched out like a leg limousine, HBK is all relaxed and ready to turn his season around. Photo symbolism: Still water. Calm before the storm. 

Post-Pedi: 10:05 am

A new HBK emerges from his feminist adventure and is ready to explode during the second half of the season. Notice the relaxed face. It's much closer to a smile. Look out AFFL. Toes before bros. It's gonna go down.