History Lessons: What your Week 3 record says about your Playoff Chances, and Why, Win or Lose, BDiddy won't be out of it.

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So your team is 2-0 and sitting atop the division eh? Feeling pretty confident? You should be. Nothing feels better than starting a season off strong, except for finishing it that way.

Fantasy football is all about wins, and typically, teams will need to get seven in order to have a shot at the postseason. Starting a season with two wins puts teams at an extremely advantageous position, as they will need to win less than half their remaining games for a shot to keep playing in week fourteen. Teams that begin the season with two losses must win more than half moving forward in order to do the same. With bye weeks soon approaching, having an early winning streak can be a nice cushion to make up for some blunders in roster moves that could come as a result of byes crippling teams options. It's a huge advantage.

Just how big of an advantage is beginning the season with three wins as opposed to three losses? In this article, we will examine the history of the AFFL since 2008 and breakdown the odds that a team makes the playoffs according to their record after week three. We'll divide the teams into groups by what their potential record could be following week three and see how those teams have fared in that situation in the past.

The good news is that no team will be completely eliminated from playoff contention as a result of their week three record, but after looking at the charts below, they may be a little depressed.  BDiddy, Cobra, Awesomeness, Jaj, and Vosgee, this one's for you.

The Three Win, Zero Loss Club

Atomic Bomba, HBK Shant Michaels, Magnum Sev.i, Prime Time, Grabbers United

Everyone would love to be in this club. The teams that have started with two wins are sitting pretty. All the above teams look like legit contenders for the title, and if history has anything to say about it, if any of these teams goes 3-0, they will have better than a 71% chance of making the playoffs. Atomic Bomba, HBK, and Magnum all can be 3-0 after this week, however, Prime Time plays Grabbers, so one of those teams will be 2-1.

Since the 2008 season, there have been seven teams that have started off the season 3-0, and of those seven, five made the playoffs. Ironically, the two teams that failed to do so were Grabbers in 2009, and HBK in 2010. The only team of the group that has started 3-0 before is the Atomic Bomba. Of the five teams that made the postseason, all finished in the top four, with the majority having eight or nine wins. The high win totals across the board tells us that teams that begin the season with three wins are as good as their record claims, for the most part.

It's interesting to note that despite beginning the season with three wins, only once has a team finished as the #1 or #2 seed (Bomba '11). Also, starting the season three and zero doesn't mean that you can or will win it all. Of all the teams in the chart below, only one won the title that same  year (Bomba '11). A hot start does not guarantee championship.

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Focusing on the two teams that failed to make the postseason, we can see that they both finished in 7th place, quite possibly missing out on the playoffs because of tie breakers. So even the teams that missed out on playing week fourteen were in the hunt until the end.

We can also note that those failures occurred nearly four seasons ago, and there have been changes to the scoring system since then. The recent trend of a perfect three for three could be the new norm. We shall wait and see.

Should Bomba, HBK, Magnum, Prime Time or Grabbers get to three wins after this week, we can safely say that, by the numbers, three of those teams will certainly be playing week fourteen. Anything can happen (and usually does) so don't start counting your chickens before they hatch, but beginning 3-0 is a great place to be.

The Two Wins, One Loss Club

Hartan, Hangin' & Bangin' as well as above teams.

If you can't win three games, then two games would be the next best thing. The two win teams from the previous group fall into this category along with Hartan and Hangin' who come into week three with one win each. Starting two and one is still a positive for any squad. Heck, just being on the right side of five hundred should be celebrated in fantasy. Does being two and one significantly decrease your odds of making the postseason from the three win group? Let's take a look.

Historically speaking, there have been 32 teams that have started the season with two wins and one loss, and only 11 have failed to make the postseason. That is 65% success rate. When considering that a three win team will have a seventy percent chance to make the postseason, there is hardly a drop off in odds for this group.

Examining the list closer, we can see that the teams that failed to make the postseason after starting 2-1 include current 1-1 teams Hangin' ('08) and Hartan ('10). However, each made the playoffs on two other occasions after starting off with two wins.

The list also includes failures from teams in the potential three win group: Prime Time ('09), and Magnum ('11). 

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Examining recent trends, we can see that over the past two seasons, only three out of thirteen teams failed to make the postseason. That means 76% of the teams that started 2-1 over the past two years have made the playoffs.

If you can't be in the three and zero club, this is a great group to be in. With a 65% chance of a team making the playoffs after starting 2-1, there is no need to panic for any team that has two wins and a loss. While many teams have shown historically that they can ride a two win record to the top, we cannot ignore the history of those teams in this group that have failed to do so. Hartan, Hangin', Prime, and Magnum all have faced this scenario before. Whether they will again after week three remains to be seen.

The One win, Two Loss Club

Cobra Kai, BDiddy, Jaj Cousteau, Awesomeness, Vosgereechee Gyank, Hartan, Hangin' & Bangin'

Finding yourself on the wrong side of five hundred stinks. So close to even, yet also one game away from a huge hole. The first three weeks of the 2014 season have split the league into two halves; a group of two win teams and group of two loss teams, with only two teams representing the middle class (Hartan and Hangin') at one-and-one. 

Since 2008, twenty teams have started the season off with a one and two record. Of those twenty, only nine teams have turned things around and made the playoffs. That equates to a 45% chance that at team with two losses to start the season can climb out of the hole and make it to week fourteen. That is a twenty percent drop off from the above group. Quite significant.

We can find that numerous teams have been in this situation before, and from the above list, Awesomeness, Cobra, BDiddy and Jaj have all climbed out of it in the past. They can use that to keep their confidence high should they find themselves in the same hole again come week four. Awesomeness had perhaps the greatest turn around in AFFL history when he finished in 1st place after starting off 1-2, winning ten straight. Should he lose in week three, he'll be hoping for a similar finish.

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Of the nine teams that turned their season around to make the postseason, only twice has a team finished as one of the top two seeds during the regular season, both times by Awesomeness. The majority of the teams that began with two losses ended up finishing between fourth and sixth place. This tells us that while the playoffs are achievable, finishing with a bye is perhaps a little too far out of reach.

It's worth noting that for the past two seasons, only one of seven teams has made the playoffs after starting 1-2 (Hangin' '13). That's only a 15% success rate.

Still, having one win is far better than the alternative: Zero wins. At least the odds are still reasonable that you can have hope. Below you will see that entering week four without a win will present quite the conundrum.

The Zero Win, Three Loss Club

Cobra Kai, BDiddy, Vosgereechee Gyank, Jaj Cousteau, Awesomeness.

To say that this is a bad spot to be in is an understatement. Five teams find themselves with two losses after the first two weeks and on the verge of having the magnanimous task of doing something that has been done only once before. 

Since 2008, there have been twelve teams that have started the season with three straight losses, and only once has a team managed to make the playoffs after starting off that way.  That's less than a 10% chance. Yikes. Ironically, the team that managed to climb out of the three hole was BDiddy, and they find themselves once again in the same situation. Vosgee, Cobra, Gyank, and Jaj have all started 0-3 at some point in the past and failed to make the postseason. Not good.

What is even more concerning is that aside from BDiddy, no team finished higher than 8th place. Nine of the teams that started the season with three losses finished with a win total of less than five. That means that 75% of the above group of teams will finish the same way.

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Recent trends point to the fact that no team in the past three seasons has ever finished higher than 8th place after starting 0-3. Coupled with the recent trends of all other win teams previously mentioned in the article and we could conclude that the league has perhaps gotten more difficult and less forgiving on teams that start slowly. This could be due to shrewd managers who take all the talent off the waiver wire, the lack of available trades, or just bad luck.

The chart above paints a bleak picture for a team that is 0-3. Teams that start this way would not only have to hope that they reach the seven win plateau and have enough points to win any tiebreakers, they would have to get extremely lucky with the schedule and have the rest of the league beat up on each other to even allow for that opportunity to make the playoffs. Not fun.

How big of a week is week 3? Teams that start the season with two or three wins have a 65-70% chance of making the postseason, while those that manage to limp into week four with zero or one win will have no better than a 10-45% chance of playing in week 14. Recent trends paint an even bleaker picture, as only 15% of teams that started 1-2 and 0% of teams that started 0-3 have made the postseason over the past two years.

But this is fantasy football, where anything can happen and usually does. While statistics tell us the odds, they don't tell us about the AFFL karma and how it can change everything. If you don't believe that there is karma in fantasy football, consider this: Last season, there was a team in a fourteen team league that was in dead last, with the lowest points in the league, with a record of 1-5. A trade, some waiver wire pickups, and a whole heck of a lot of karma later, that team found themselves in the semi-finals. 

Anything is possible to those that believe.

Good luck in week three Amigos! May 0-3 stay far, far away.

AFFL Week 2: Facts on all Week 2 Match-ups

There is nothing like having games mean more than just a game.

In the AFFL, rivalries run deep, and history has given punishing lessons to many of the teams in the most brutal ways. Who can forget the Bomba game of '10, when Michael Vick ripped off 63 points to close a forty point gap versus HBK? Or perhaps last season, when Hangin' and Bangin' managed to pull off a Monday night miracle with a Jordy Nelson catch on the last play of the game versus Awesomeness. Fantasy football is indeed a cruel mistress.

So lets rehash the past and give this weeks match-ups a little sizzle. Something extra to play for. Pride is on the line in many of these games, but revenge can be a factor as well. Below are some interesting facts about the current match-ups for week 2. Hopefully they'll make Sunday mean a little more.

Atomic Bomba v Vosgereechee Gyank

Match-up Facts

• Bomba is 6-1 lifetime vs. Vosgee
• The last time Vosgee defeated Bomba was week 6 of 2008. 92.10 - 79.44
• In those 6 losses, Vosgee has only managed to be within ten points once (2011). All other losses have been by 20,30,or 40+ points.
• Bomba has averaged 139 points in games against Gyank
• Gyank has averaged 92 points in games against Bomba
• Gyank's highest total when playing Bomba was 123 pts
• Bomba highest total when playing Gyank is 161 pts.
• Last season, Bomba came off a loss to HBK to defeat Gyank and begin a six game winning streak to end the season.
• In 2009, Gyank finished the season winning 4 of 6 games, with a loss coming at the hands of Bomba. This loss was the reason Gyank failed to make the playoffs.

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HBK v Hartan

Match-up Facts

• Hartan has a 6-1 lifetime record vs HBK
• HBK ended a six year losing streak to Hartan last season, winning for the first time in the match-up week 9: 156.06-97.76
• In the six losses to Hartan, HBK has lost by nine points or less 4 times, with the closest loss coming in 2012 by .48 pts. (6,7,9,.48)
• Hartan has only blown out HBK once, by 53 points in 2008
• HBK's only win was a blow out of 59 pts.
• Hartan has averaged 117 points in games vs HBK, with a high game of 143 pts (2011)
• HBK has averaged 112 points in games vs Hartan, with a high game of 156 pts (2013)
• HBK's lowest score ever was against Hartan in 2008 (61 pts)
• In 2008, HBK won six of seven games during the season, with a lone loss coming against Hartan. In 2010, after starting the season with a four game win streak, a loss to Hartan week 5 sparked a four game losing streak that HBK could not recover from. In 2012, another three game win streak was snapped at the hands of Hartan.

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Cobra Kai v Magnum Sev.i

Match-up Facts

• Magnum has a 5-1 lifetime record vs Cobra Kai

• Cobra broke a five game losing streak vs Magnum last season when he defeated Sev.i week 13: 109..2-134.88

• Magnum's 5 wins have all been by 30 points or more, with the largest margin of victory being 41 points in 2012.

• Cobra's lone win was by a margin of 25 pts

• Magnum has averaged 131 points a game when playing Cobra, with the highest total being 166.62 points in 2011

• Cobra has averaged 104 points per game when playing Magnum, with a high of 134 points in 2013.

• Cobra has failed to clear 100 points in 4 of the six match-ups.

• In 2011, Magnum lost six of seven games, but managed to have his only win during that span be against Cobra.

• Cobra's loss to Magnum Sev.i in week 10 of the 2012 season was the reason he failed to make the playoffs, despite ending the season with a three game win streak.

• Magnum's loss to Cobra during week 13 of last season eliminated him from the playoffs. Had he won, he would have made the post-season.

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Jaj Cousteau v Grabbers United

Match-up Facts

• Jaj Cousteau has a perfect 5-0 lifetime record vs Grabbers
• Jaj has defeated Grabbers by an average of 25 points, with the closest margin of victory being 14 points in 2011
• Jaj has averaged 123 points per game when playing Grabbers, with a high of 127 points in 2009
• Grabbers has averaged 98 points per game when playing Jaj, with a high of 105 in 2011. He has only scored more than a hundred points twice.
• Jaj has twice bounced back from a loss the week before with a win against Grabbers
• Grabbers has lost to Jaj after winning the week before on three different occasions. During the 2010 season, Grabbers had won six of seven games, but a loss to Cousteau during week 8 sparked a three game losing streak and would lead to Grabbers missing the playoffs by one game.

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BDiddy v Hangin' & Bangin'

Match-up Facts:

• Hangin' leads the lifetime record vs. BDiddy 4-2
• One of Hangin's four playoff losses has come a the hands of Diddy
• Hangin's victories have come by an average margin of 14 points
• BDiddy's victories have come by an average margin of  5.6 points
• Two games have been decided by less than half a point. (.44 in '09, .38 in '12)
• Hangin' has averaged 111 points a game vs DIddy, with a high of 154 points in 2013
• BDiddy has averaged 104 points a game vs Hangin', with a high of 143 points in 2013
• In 2008, despite losing six of their last seven games, Hangin' celebrated week 8 with a victory over BDiddy
• Hangin' got their first win of the 2013 season week 2 versus BDiddy (De ja vu?)
• In 2009, BDiddy finished the season winning 3 of 4 games, but losing to Hangin' week 12. The loss placed them as the sixth seed where they would eventually lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Had they beat Hangin', they would have been the 4th seed and made it to the finals.
• In 2010, BDiddy's win over Hangin' week 11 was one of two must wins to make the playoffs.
• BDiddy's loss to Hangin' week 2 of 2013 set off a four game losing streak for the team

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Prime Time v Awesomeness

Match-up Facts

• Awesomeness has a lifetime record of 7-3 versus Prime Time
• The last time Prime Time defeated Awesomeness was week 10 of the 2011 season.
• Awesomeness has defeated Prime Time by an average margin of 23 points, with only one game having a difference of less than ten points (3 in '12). The highest margin of victory is 49 points in 2009.
• Prime Time has defeated Awesomeness by eight points twice, but holds the greatest margin of victory in the series with a 62 point blowout week 4 of the 2011 season.
• Prime Time's lowest point total ever in a game (58.96 pts) came versus Awesomeness during the 2013 season.
• Awesomeness has averaged 108 ppg in the series, with a high of 143 points in 2012
• Prime Time has averaged 98 ppg in the series, with a high of 153 points in 2011
• Prime Time has also failed to score 90 points in 5 of the 10 games.
• In 2010, Prime Time had a four game win streak snapped by Awesomeness week 9. The loss would force Prime Time to play Awesomeness in the second round of the playoffs, where he would be defeated again.
• In 2012, a loss to Awesomeness week 12 eliminated Prime Time from the playoffs.
• In 2013, Prime Time began the year winning 4 of 5 games, with a lone loss coming at the hands of Awesomeness.
• Awesomeness lost to Prime Time twice during the 2011 season. Winning one of those games would have gotten Awesomeness into the playoffs.

AFFL Monday Night Live: Bomba, Grabbers, HBK Look to Hold on for Wins

After the slate of week 1 match-ups, a few remain in limbo. Prime Time, Hartan, Magnum all look to be set to record victories, while Bomba, Grabbers, and HBK enter Monday Night with a lead and hope to hold on for the victory. Here is a look at tonight's Monday Night Live Match-ups.

Atomic Bomba v Hangin' and Bangin

Score:

Bomba: 118.22

Hangin': 89.70

Players:

Bomba: Arizona Def

Hangin': Ryan Matthews & Nick Novak

Riding Matt Ryan's huge week 1 performance, the Bomba holds nearly a 30 point lead, heading into the MNF games. Hangin' & Bangin' hopes that Ryan Matthews and the Chargers light-up the scoreboard, dropping the Cardinal defense into the negative point total, while racking up FGs and scores for their Charger players. Should the Cardinals do absolutely nothing on defense, while at the same time allowing Matthews a few goal line scores, this could very well be a comeback that would rank as one of the best in Hangin's history. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that this could in fact happen being that the Cards defense has lost a lot of players on the Defensive side of the ball. Will it happen? That is left to be determined.

Prediction: Bomba holds on for a ten point victory.

HBK vs BDiddy

Score:

HBK: 105.64

BDiddy: 76.02

Players:

HBK: None

BDiddy: Keenan Allen

Is a big day for Keenan Allen on the horizon? BDiddy sure hopes so. Down nearly thirty points to HBK, Diddy will need Allen and the Chargers to air it out, and air it out often in order for him to complete an improbable win. The Cards are not nearly as strong on the defensive side of the football as they were in 2013, however, their corners are very strong. Peterson and Cromartie will be a tough duo to contend with for Allen. Either could limit his numbers. If the Chargers establish a ground game and produce a balanced attack, Allen could get loose for a few deep shots and really make things interesting. We know HBK won't be rooting for that to happen, even if he is a Charger fan.

Prediction: HBK holds on for a 7 point victory

Grabbers United vs Cobra Kai

Score:

Grabbers: 101.20

Cobra Kai: 85.94

Players:

Grabbers: Golden Tate

Cobra Kai: Michael Floyd, Ruben Randle, Det. Defense

The most interesting match-up on the MNF slate features Grabbers up on the Cobra Kai by fifteen points and both teams having players in both MNF games. Grabbers is hoping that Golden Tate can out duel Cobra's duo of Randle and Det defense. Most expect Tate to have a great game, as Megatron will leave him one-on-on opportunities galore. On the flip side, Randle is a redzone threat, and will be called upon when the Giants get in close. Cobra will have to deal with the Detriot defense losing points for ever Giant score, so it is very likely they go into the second MNF game still down in points. At that point, Michael Floyd will need to have himself a decent evening to pull off the victory. Grabbers should be on his fifth glass of whiskey by then.

Prediction: Cobra Kai nicks out a victory on a late Michael Floyd score.

AFFL Draft Grades: Perception vs Reality

Perception affecting reality. That is what the fantasy draft is all about. Case and point: Zac Stacy. Reports by beat writers have praised Benny Cunningham as the "it" guy in the Rams backfield, and fantasy owners panicked when Cunningham was given the starting nod during the third preseason game. Yet Stacy still sits atop the Rams depth chart and coming off a breakout season. What are we to make of all this? Absolutely nothing.

And that is the case with most of the preseason. Too many managers put too much emphasis on the preseason. For example, the 49ers were outscored in 2011's preseason 51-10. They went on to go 13-3 and make it to the NFC championship. Last year, Zack Sudfield was a monster in the preseason. He was cut by week 2. I can do this for days.

Managers will use the preseason to nit pick a player or offense to death in order to rationalize their opinion on a guy. Anything from a player being an injury risk, to not looking good, to concerns about the team offense as a whole, will all be used to move players up and down their draft boards. Getting into the semantics of why you should or shouldn't take a player  is meaningless. If you like a guy, you'll find reasons to defend taking him. If you don't, you'll find those as well. It is how it is.

Smart managers, however, will take advantage of the perception of players and find values where they can. Great managers will use those picks to help maximize their rosters potential.  Everyone is hyping up Emmanuel Sanders? That's great. Now I can get Terrence Williams a round later. Nobody thinks Oakland is going to have a good offense? Perfect, I'll snag MJD two rounds later. Knowing which smoke screens to avoid and which ones to go after can make your draft a huge success.

Which leads us to evaluating the 2014 AFFL Draft. It's quite impossible to give an accurate assessment of the draft right now, as we are still in full on "perception" mode. Reality will be coming in a few days. Until then, we can evaluate the choices that managers made to maximize their teams potential and mitigate risk where they could. Every player has both risk and reward attached to them, and no roster will be without a soft spot. Good managers alleviate some of the potential concerns they may face during the season by creating depth at positions they see potential problems. Did you draft deep enough at a position to offset any risk of a player being a bust, or getting injured if he's injury prone? Did you draft risky players for potential upside? Do you have players that could be starters come mid-season? It's a tough job, but teams that cover their butts in these areas usually end up playing all the way through week 16.

So with all that said, lets look at the draft and see who truly maximized their rosters to the fullest. This isn't to say that a team is bad or good, but rather whether or not the draft strategy was sound and there is a train of logic that they executed and stayed true to. Again, this is purely about how a manager drafted given the situation they were in and the choices they made.

In essence, let's find out who brought the draft lumber, stayed limber, or just limped into the 2014 season.

Bringing the Lumber

Vosgereechee Gyank

Best picks: Graham (1) Colston (7) Ridley (9), Ivory (13)

Worst: Seattle Def (8), Austin (11)

There is a reason that Vosgee is at the top of the list (yes, I'm just as shocked as you) and it's because of the circumstances he found himself in. With no keepers to speak of, he was at a severe disadvantage when entering the draft. While most teams had already gained an upper hand on the Gyank with late round keepers, he would have to pull off a solid draft in order to be able to stay competitive. Dare we say he did.

Getting a top TE and QB in the first two rounds is nice, but to do so would leave you vulnerable at the other positions, namely RB. What makes Gyank's draft come together is the not so sexy pick of Frank Gore. Getting Bush as an RB1 could work out. He'll have some big games. But by taking Gore, he gives himself stability at the position. And he wasn't done. Taking Ridley and Ivory later adds some upside, further strengthening his roster. Lastly, he didn't suffer too much at the WR spots, targeting an upside pick with DJax, but also getting two possession receivers in Maclin and Colston. The blend of that receiver trio should be good enough weekly to help alleviate a Djax goose egg. The roster is a great blend of balanced players and upside, as well as top flight studs in Graham and Rodgers. Very nice work.

Grade: A-

Hartan

Best Picks: Stafford (4), P. Thomas (5), Joique (K), Hawkins (13)

Worst Picks: Greene (12)

If you want to know how to draft according to your keepers, look no further than Hartan. Having Forte and Joique solidified on their roster, team two-face would have been wise to ignore the Rb position for the most part and focus on the others. That is exactly what they did. They took one RB in their first 8 picks, and bombarded the wide receiver position throughout. With the luxury of not having to focus on RB, Hartan also broke from a tempting strategy to wait on QB and took Stafford early. Adding Vernon Davis in the mid-rounds gave the team strength at all major positions (although we're not as excited for Davis this year). It's exactly how they should have approached the draft.

They weren't perfect however, taking Shonn Greene as your fifth RB late seems a waste, especially when he will probably never be used. However, they stayed true to drafting upside WRs until the end. With a total of seven on the roster, they are not only deep at the position they lacked coming into the draft, but also should have a few gems emerge from the pile in the process. Nicely done.

Grade: A-

Jaj Cousteau

Best Picks:: J. Charles (1), Brown (k), Thomas (k) T. WIlliams (7), Boykin (11)

Worst Picks: Chris Johnson (4)

Jaj began with a great situation and almost screwed it up. Almost. We were worried that once Chris Johnson's name came up in the fourth round that it would be the beginning of a list of players that were wrong for this team. Fortunately, Cousteau caught himself slippin' and righted the ship.

Going into the fourth round with arguably the best three players on any roster, Cousteau should have opted to continue to build with high upside players, like a Cordelle Patterson for example, maximizing the safety net that Jamaal Charles, Demeriyus Thomas and Antonio Brown give him. Instead, investing in a running back in a committee on a bad offense who gives up goal line chances doesn't illicit excitement. You have already lessened the risk of a bust on a risky WR with Thomas and Brown. Take the plunge. Especially if you are going to take a player like Danny Woodhead in the 8th round. Wouldn't expect a huge drop-off from Johnson to Woodhead in your RB2 spot.

But that seems to be the only glaring error that Jaj made. You can argue whether or not Jordan Reed should have been taken over Jordan Cameron, but that is just personal preference. Nabbing Terrence Williams, Foles, Reed, and Charles's handcuff, Cousteau did enough to build on an already strong keeper core. Tis' excellent.

Grade: A-

BDiddy

Best Picks: Patterson (4), Mike Wallace (6), Keenan Allen (k), Bradshaw (12)

Worst Picks: Ray Rice (5), Josh Gordon (15)

It seems like every year this time we have good things to say about Diddy's draft. So far, he hasn't disappointed. Coming into the draft with only Keenan Allen as a keeper and a severely depleted RB position pool to draft from, Diddy would be taking a huge risk avoiding the position as their first pick. Luckily, the board fell their way with Martin falling in their lap in the second round. While Martin could be a potential bust candidate, he gives Diddy viable RB1 potential. Disaster avoided. Where Diddy did very well for himself was the selection of Gerhart in the third. The RB duo of Martin and Gerhart should be strong enough to remain competitive week to week.

They also wisely took a risk/reward player in Patterson in the 4th round. That's what we like to see. Maximizing the safety net value of Keenan Allen. Mike Wallace is a nice third option as well. Two of those three wide-outs should be solid on a weekly basis.

We don't like the Ray Rice pick in the fifth round, as it seemed forced. Why not just wait until later and nab a guy like Steven Jackson, MJD, or even an upside RB in Jeremy Hill to be your #3? If you are going to take an RB, why not a guy like Tate? Or go WR and take E. Sanders? Rice has a lot of downside associated with him. There were better options available at the time, and we think this was a miss.

That said, the line-up has plenty of opportunity to grow, with guys like Justin Hunter and Ahmad Bradshaw stashed for later in the season. Can't do much better than Pitta in the mid rounds. We like what we see.

Grade: A-

Staying Limber

HBK Shant Michaels

Best Picks: Vereen (3), Welker (8), Romo (9),

Worst Picks: Ty Hilton (4), Tate (5)

It wasn't a perfect draft, but HBK did nice job building on two great keepers. When you have Alshon Jeffery for a sixth rounder, and Lacy for a second, you have freedom to do anything you like in the early rounds. With that freedom comes risk in that you could over indulge in one position group, leaving another one waning thin. HBK struck a nice balance and formulated a best of both worlds strategy. Depth at every position, and lots of upside at WR makes the team very well rounded.

However, the draft is not without its faults. We don't back TY Hilton over a guy like Victor Cruz, but that is just a matter of personal preference. The bigger point comes on the Tate selection. A little better planning could have yielded a pick of Cameron in that round, and perhaps a guy like MJD in round 8. Or why not go for the upside of an Emmanual Sanders? Tate comes with a history of injuries, and having someone like that as a third RB over a player that could be your starter at TE may not have been the best move to maximize the roster. We'll see how it plays out.

Welker was a nice value pick and could be a steal if he stays healthy. Benjamiin offers great potential too.

Grade: B+

Atomic Bomba

Best picks: Cruz (4), Matt Ryan (7), Stacy (k), MJD (9)

Worst Picks: Hyde (6 instead of 7th), RG3 (10th)

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The Bomba came into the AFFL Draft with perhaps the best valued keeper in Zac Stacy, and looked to add to that. Having a potential borderline RB1/2 in the 8th round means that the Bomba would have been wise to target the other positions early in the draft. For the most part, he did, building perhaps the deepest WR core in the league with four of his first five picks. Arian Foster comes with a ton of risk, however, with huge upside. If Bomba believes in Stacy, then Foster is a great choice, as he already has mitigate the risk of a bust with an 8th round keeper. Handcuffing Grimes in the 12th further alleviates the potential injury that could occur.

Value was also found in a number of picks. Cruz in the fourth could be a steal, as could MJD in the 9th round. The roster has upside with Sanders, Hyde and Wheaton as well. Not much of an issue with those picks.

Two selections stand out as questionable. The first was an admitted mistake on Bomba's part in taking Hyde in the 6th round and not 7th. Those errors shouldn't happen to a veteran drafter as this one. While it won't make a difference this year, but will if he is kept. The seond was the questionable selection of Rg3 in the 10th. Yes the upside is there, but does Bomba need another QB when he has Ryan? Why not an upside TE like Kelce?

All-in-all, the Atomic one didn't do anything to hurt his championship chances, only help it.

Grade: B+

Prime Time

Best Picks: Ellington (2), Bell (k), Olson (8), A. Williams (11)

Worst Picks: Steven Jackson (6), Jennings (3)

We don't think Ara did anything that severely hurt his teams chances at winning it all this year. In fact, we believe that Prime Time is one of the stronger teams in the league. There is depth at the RB position galore, and Manning can help offset any potential weekly bust plays. Things look good.

Getting Ellington in the second round was great value and could be a huge boon for Prime. Concerns about Levon Bell not getting goal line carries are a bit over blown in our opinion, but Prime did a good job alleviating those concerns. Jennings gives ample depth to the position, and Prime looks to have returned to his RB hoarding ways.

The problem area is the WR position. If this is about mitigating risk in an area group, than Prime may have over compensated for the RB spot while sacrificing his WRs. Fitz should be fine, and perhaps Cooks will come on, but we wonder what the line-up would have looked like if a WR was drafted instead of Jennings. Especially if you are going to take Steven Jackson in the 6th round, which was not only early, but solely done to try and screw the Atomic Bomba. (the Bomba is impervious to these types of tactics).  As it turns out, he missed on Terrence Williams at that pick, another player that would have helped his team immensely.

We shudder to think how good the team had looked had Ara stuck to his guns and drafted for his team and not against someone elses. Regardless, it's a strong squad that will need to grow into its potential.

Grade: B-

Hangin' and Bangin'

Best picks: Nelson (k), Torry Smith (4), Jermey Hill (9), Stewart (10)

Worst Picks: White (2), Newton (8)

One of two teams that drafted across the world, Hangin' & Bangin' entered the 2014 draft with Lynch and Nelson as their keepers. With a player from each major position as a keeper,  Bangin' could opt to go a few different ways in their draft strategy. The end result is a balanced lineup that has some depth and upside on the bench.

The trio of Nelson, Smith and White should be very solid and produce consistent numbers each week. Nelson has a shot at producing at a top five level, something Bangin' hasn't had on their lineup in a long time.  Along with Decker, the position is deep, and we can't fault the squad for drafting this way.

While the team seems to be solid at the WR core, we don't know what to make of the RB situation. Matthews is a big question mark, as are the other two Rbs, Hill and Stewart. While things may pan out for the team, the formation of the RB core has us questioning the White pick in the second round. Going White over Ellington was not wise, as having Ellington on the roster would have pushed Matthews to an RB3, a much more comfortable proposition. Torry and Jordy would have been fine as a WR duo.

Cam Newton being selected over the likes of Tony Romo and other Qbs that late is peculiar. If you waited that long, might as well wait a little more and just go all in with a match-up play like Rivers/Big Ben.

Should Hill and Stewart grow into potential weekly players, and Decker comes into form, Hangin should can be a contender.

Grade: B-

Magnum Sev.i

Best picks: Megatron (k), Ball (k), Crabtree (4), Cutler (8), Manziel (16)

Worst picks: Richardson (6), Sproles (7), Deangelo (9)

The Sev.i was placed in a precarious position, as one co-manager was left to draft on his own while the other was probably passed out on a curb in the red light district in Amsterdam. Go figure. Despite the Drafting handicap, Magnum managed himself well, drafting a fairly balanced roster with some nice value picks in the mid-rounds.

Having Megatron and Ball as keepers gave the team a very nice base to build from. With the two main positions covered they were free to explore taking top guys at others. Julius Thomas fit that bill in the second. Crabtree has WR1 upside, and love the value of getting him in the fourth. Julian Edelman should be a very solid #3 receiver and thus rounds out a very strong WR core. This area will not be a weakness for the Sev.i. Nice work here.

The running back situation is a bit more cloudy. While Ball should perform well as an RB1, we question the picks of Richardson and Sproles as the #2 and #3 Rbs on the roster. Neither evoke much excitement as picks. Taking Richardson without taking Bradshaw was also a mistake, as the latter could end up with the feature back role by the end of the year. If that were to happen, Sev.i would be razor thin at the Rb spots. Deangelo is a nice back, but not one that will keep the position afloat. We don't consider Mcfadden much of a value either.

Aside from the Rb position, all other areas look strong, and should be very competitive. Cutler was an exceptional value in the 8th round, and Sev.i made a lot of his "draft money" back with that pick. He could very well be a top five Qb this year.

Grade: B-

Looking Limp

Grabbers United

Best Picks: Dez (1), Cameron (6), Golden Tate (7), Ingram (9)

Worst Picks: Luck (5)

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately. We love Andrew Luck. Getting him in the fifth round is absolutely fine value. It's great. However, sometimes, no matter how much you want a guy, you may find yourself in a situation where you just cant take him, because you are in dire need of other positions. That is exactly the case here. Grabbers simply could not afford to take a Qb this early after keeping a TE and selecting two Wrs. We have no issue with the first three picks, as all are exceptional. Nice job there. But the selection of Luck set the rest of the roster in a tail spin, one that was hard to recover from.

Nabbing Luck that early, forced Grabbers to wait an entire 14 more picks until he could finally take his first RB in the 5th round. That was too long. With depth at the Qb position, waiting on the Qb would have been  the right strategy. Ending up with Romo in the 8th round, while getting a Ben Tate, Pierre Thomas, or other back in the fourth would have made the Rb core stronger without losing much at the Qb position. Sankey may work out to be a functional RB2, but on paper, position group is thin at the top.

The other questionable move was the selection of Cameron. Again, the value was there, but with Gronk already in place, and lots of great WRs and RBs available, this was an unnecessary pick.

While they missed early in the draft, Grabbers did fine to at least rectify a bad situation. Ingram and Pierce are great depth Rbs that could perform like weekly RB2s. Tate was also a bargain at his 7th round choice. The Wrs are looking strong.

In the end, the Grabbers is left with a roster that is strong at all major positions, aside from RB. If one of his Rbs should become an RB1, he will be very strong. That is what he has to be hoping for.

Grade: C

Awesomeness

Best Picks: AP (2), Tom Brady (6), Jackson (7), Moreno (9)

Worst Picks: Spiller (3), Garcon (4), Wright (5)

Awesomeness found his draft strategy handed to him on a silver platter early with the pick of AP at two. Once  AP was in hand to complement Gio, it should have been quite obvious how Awosmeness' draft should go: Heavy WR. While he did lean on the WRs through the early rounds, the pick of Spiller in the third completely through the plan off course. We don't like the pick. Already strong at the RB spot, selecting a timeshare back on a bad offense as your third selection isn't exciting and doesn't complement the roster well. Following that pick, Garcon was selected, another WR that is in a group of others on a team that could have offensive problems with a Qb. Why not go elsewhere? Take some risk. Get some upside. As opposed to those picks, what would the roster look like with say, Patterson and Crabtree? Or perhaps Stafford and Patterson/Crabtree? We think a lot better.  Wright/Garcon/Wayne have very little upside between the three of them, and the group as a whole seems more safe than explosive. We'd expect morIe from Awesomeness.

We can't fault the quarterback selection of Tom Brady in the 6th. With Gronkowski back, Brady should have a bounce back year. Nice value for a potential top 5 qb that late.

Taking Fred Jackson in the 7th further emphasizes why the Spiller pick seems a waste.We love the selection of Jackson that late, and had the strategy been planned, may have been better to just take Fred jax there, and use the Spiller pick elsewhere.  Moreno has upside to take over RB duties in Mia, and is nice value that late. Good work there.

Overall, the Awesomeness draft seems to be a smorgasbord of players that have more question marks than answers. We don't know what to make of this team, but don't see many areas where the squad will dominate any one position group.

Grade: C

 

Cobra Kai

Best Picks: McCoy (k), Murray (k), Floyd (4), Rudolph (6), Lattimer (13)

Worst Picks: Morris (3), Ertz (7), Harvin (5)

It's unusual to say this about the defending champion, but, despite having two great keepers, we feel Cobra managed to make his team worse after the draft. With two of the best keepers in the league, the Kai was set to make his team nearly unstoppable. Instead, we think that he left a lot to be desired with some peculiar decisions.

While getting the best available player on the board is a good strategy, sometimes those players aren't the best for your team. With two strong Rbs, Kai would have been wise to go heavy on the WRs early, and forgo the temptation of building on RBs. Morris is a nice player, but in a PPR league, his value is less. With Andre Johnson, Vjax, and other Wrs still available, we question the decision to go RB here, especially with the WRs that were selected after.

Ffloyd and Harvin could provide immense upside as a duo, but both come with huge risk. Relying on Floyd as WR1 is a leap of faith, and planning on Harvin to play 16 games and produce at high levels is a greater leap of faith. Without building depth at the WR position, Kai leaves himself extremely vulnerable when the bye weeks hit. Lattimer could be a great value play, as could Randle. But the unit as a whole doesn't excite much, and has immense downside associated with it.

Which leads to the peculiar selection of two tight ends in the mid rounds. With an oft injured Harvin as a number two wide-out, players like Colston, Terrance Williams, or Golden Tate would have strengthened the position nicely. We love the Rudolph pick, but can't sign off taking Ertz with all those WRs on the board. That was a huge mistake, as evidence of Cobra vehemently already to trade one during and after the draft.

Lastly, Russell Wilson is a nice value pick that late, as is Palmer, but neither look to have the umpf that you would hope from your Qb spot. Taking a Matt Ryan or Cutler instead of the tight ends would have been much more advisable.

In the end, the line-up has areas of strengths, with a lot of question marks associated with it. Could it all work out? Sure. But on paper, Cobra could have done a much better job maximizing on two great keepers. There were more misses than hits.

Grade: D+

Vosgee Gyank Donates to Vatican. Receives “Godorade,” Blessed Sports Drink.

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Azdvatz in da Vosgee Hooooouse?!

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Sometimes you just have to bypass the fantasy gods and start dealing with the real One. Apparently Gyank owner Mardig knows this too well. 

Reports out of the Vatican have Gyank owner Mardig Kasbarian donating money to the High Church in return for a “prayer package” to help garnish wins for the struggling franchise. Gyank hasn't sniffed the playoffs since '08, and finds himself without a player to keep heading into the 2014 draft. A very dismal situation. By greasing earth's heavenly landlord, Mardig is taking the AFFL karma to a whole new level.

“Yes I believe in the Fantasy Gods,” explained Kasbarian, “ I believe they are very real. And we're doing this to appease them. So Kak ger, bro.”

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The Prayer package sent by the Vatican includes prayer services that the Church will carry out for the rest of the season on behalf of the Gyank. These include: Team blessings before games; Prayer-on-Demand, an instant prayer service should a player get injured; and “bye-week blessings,” which include specific prayers for free agents that subsitute for players on bye. The package also contains many interesting novelties, such as unique iron shoes developed by the Vatican that were inspired by Deuteronomy 33:25 “Thy shoes [shall be] iron and brass; and as thy days, [so shall] thy strength [be].” We're still trying to figure out what those are about, but they are cool.

But the most interesting of novelties is a team supply of Godorade, the blessed sports drink, that will apparently give Mardig and his players the spiritual edge he's been looking for.  It’s soul quenching.

Primarily used for in-game hydration and holiness, Godorade has been in development for the last ten years but only given out to a select few. It is a mixture of natural and “holy” flavors, combining rich fruit and pure blessed holy water to help athletes get to the next level. Research done on the divine drink is inconclusive, but Kasbarian believes it works.

“I took a sip of that stuff before I left for the gym this morning. I was running like a gazelle bro.”

Used in conjunction with the prayer package, Godorade allegedly renders all jinxes and hexes during the fantasy season powerless, something that is crucial to winning in the AFFL. That means premature congratulations sent to Mardig's phone will not have an affect on the outcome of his match-up. Vosgee says that he has lost hundreds of games just from that alone.

"One year I was down three points with Dobson and Ridley to play. He was done. I get one text saying congratulations, next thing I know, Dobson is hurt and Ridley is benched for fumbling. Kak ger bro. Mez Kak ger."

With only two days left until the draft, most teams will be number crunching and performing mock drafts, but not Gyank. Rather than relying on machines to make his success happen, he's turning to a higher source.

“We’re hoping, check that, we’re praying that this deal with the Vatican will help our team get to that next level physically, mentally, spiritually, and any other word that ends in 'ally' that we need. Oh and by all means, kak ger bro."

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The Pope holds up a Vosgee logo urging the audience to pray for his fantasy team this season.

The Vatican does not claim that its prayer package, nor Godorade for that matter, will magically use divine intervention to change the course of events in any field, including football. That can only be God’s will. Rather, it will help the soul deal with the circumstances that the prayee finds him or herself in. Basically, if Gyank is going down, he’ll feel okay about it now.

“We’re not going anywhere,” said Mardig, wearing a brand new cross around his neck. “It’s about the Holy Gyank now. Azdvatz in daaaa Vosgeee hoooouse!”

While he's at it, maybe he should ask God for a few keepers. Amen.