AFFL Team Pre-Draft Preview '15: Grabbers

Grabbers Owner Sassoon

For the next twelve days, the AFFL will give you a break down of each manager and preview their 2015 Fantasy season. We will take a look at what the team has done up to this point, their current keeper situation, and take an early look at how the difficulty of their schedule. Teams will be previewed in reverse draft order, starting with 12 and ending at 1. You can further see more about each manager and team by clicking on the teams tab and visiting each team page.

8. Grabbers United

History:

• 2012 AFFL Runner-up
• 2 playoff appearances last three years
• Second lowest lifetime win percentage 40-51 (43%)
• 4 losing seasons of less than six wins. One with only two wins
• Improved drafting has lead to recent success
• Two solid keepers in Luck and Gronk sets up 2015 well

Forgive the pun, but when you've hit bottom, there is no where to go but up. Grabbers United is a team that began its AFFL career with a tight grip on finishing in close to last place. Out of the first four seasons in the league, Grabbers would only claim a winning season once, and failed to make the playoffs in any of those years. It took some time for team United to figure out how to build a winning roster, and those tough years would soon provide the soil for which Grabbers would blossom out of.

In 2012, Grabbers got a taste of the AFFL sweet life, as they managed to squeak into the playoffs for the first time and ride the momentum all the way to the title game. While they didn't win-it-all, a successful season was much needed to bolster the teams confidence and redo his lowly image.

The success of the 2012 season would come back again last year, when the franchise found its way back into the playoffs thanks to the arm of Andrew Luck. With risky draft moves and free agent pick-ups, Grabbers didn't just have luck on his side, he managed his team exceptionally well. It was a welcomed site to others in the league who had written Grabbers off as a "weak" franchise.

Grabbers strength lies in his "ignorance is bliss" strategy of drafting. It can be argued that too much information about anything is not good. Grabbers isn't the most knowledgeable teams in the AFFL when it comes to  the draft, but that sometimes works in his favor. While everyone else is going by what experts predict, Grabbers isn't afraid to trust his gut on guys. Take for example last season. Without an RB in the first four rounds, many around the AFFL thought that Grabbers would fall apart. Taking Luck in the fourth gave Grabbers no shot at any worthy RBs. Add to that the fact that he drafted Mark Ingram, an Rb that was thought of as a bust and doesn't catch passes, and team United was building their team that was "anti-expert." Staying true to his risk averse ways, he then went out and spent half his FAAB budget on Justin Forsett early in the season when he hadn't proved much. Again he was mocked for going against the "experts." In the end, Grabbers had the last laugh, as he formed a strong team and managed his way from a lottery team to a playoff team. He deserves all the credit for his managerial skills. It was well done.

Looking forward into 2015, Grabbers has the chance to have a great season. The team will need to build on their success and make the playoffs for consecutive years before it can truly be considered a player in the league. However, things are definitely looking up for team United and a few more winning seasons will force everyone to forget where Grabbers started: at the bottom.

2015 Preview

Potential Keepers = Very Good

• Rob Gronkowski #8
• Dez Bryant #8
• Andrew Luck #20

Schedule = Good

• x2 = Magnum Sev.i and Awesomeness

Draft

Grabbers enters the draft with solid keeper options. It doesn't get much better than getting to keep the #1 QB last year at the 20th pick, so expect Luck to be kept. As for the first round pick, Grabbers has two ways he can go. If he opts to keep Dez because he is weary of keeping a TE that early, he would set himself up with a top 3 WR at pick 8. Not bad. If he elects to keep Gronk, he'll begin the draft with two players at the top of their respected positions. It's a win-win. We would think that Gronk would be the keeper of choice in the first round, then the be best avail RB/WR in round three. Grabbers could have the most difficult task of any manager, as they will be without a pick until after twenty-five selections have gone by.  He may not have the crazy value other teams have, but he has great players. Definitely something to build on.

Schedule

The two division opponents that Grabbers will play twice, Magnum and Awesomeness, aren't two of the strongest teams in the league, but they will provide a challenge. Awesomeness gets to keep AP and has Hopkins in the 5th round, a solid value. Magnum is a bit weaker with only Sanders as a 3rd round keeper. Looking at bye weeks, Grabbers will square off against Awesomeness during week 8, a week where neither team is effected. Magnum will come in week seven, and will be without Emmanual Sanders, giving Grabbers a leg-up in that game. Looking at when Grabbers is effected by byes, week 4 and week 10, neither of the teams they play those weeks (Vosgee and Hartan respectively) will be hurt with keepers sitting out. Those may be tough match-ups for Grabbers to win, depending on how he drafts.

AFFL Team Pre-Draft Preview '15: HBK Shant Michaels

HBK owner Shant Apelian

For the next twelve days, the AFFL will give you a break down of each manager and preview their 2015 Fantasy season. We will take a look at what the team has done up to this point, their current keeper situation, and take an early look at how the difficulty of their schedule. Teams will be previewed in reverse draft order, starting with 12 and ending at 1. You can further see more about each manager and team by clicking on the teams tab and visiting each team page.

9. HBK Shant Michaels

History:

• One of the leagues founding members
• 2006 Champion with Bomba
• 4th place finish 3x
• Failed to make playoffs '09-'12
• 6 of 9 seasons finished with six wins or less.
• Isn't afraid to draft Rookies.
• Solid Keepers over the past two seasons.

When we ask the question, who is the league's "flashiest" manager, there is only one answer: HBK. Since '08 HBK has had a flair for the dramatic and a brand that is all about respecting the styles of his idol, Shawn Michaels. In true HBK fashion, Michaels' teams have been about players who have flash, and that "sex appeal." It's this kind of approach that has left HBK without much sustained success over the past years. Since venturing on his own in the '07 season, team "sexy boy" has only had three winning seasons, winning only four games in two seasons, and failing to win six games in two-thirds of the time. That's not good. Because of this, It's easy to forget that manager Shant was a co-champion in with Bomba in '06. The good news is that despite failing to make the playoffs in four years straight, HBK has seen the post-season in the last two, reaching the semi-finals in 2013. This is something to build on.

HBK teams are a blend of a conservative and radical approach. Seemingly stubborn to move on many trades early in the season, the team often becomes a player in the trade market late. With the flair for the dramatic, HBK has been known to make his presence known during draft day, and typically takes risks on players others wouldn't, namely rookies. Eddie Lacy was one such risk that has turned into a two year keeper, as was Alshon Jeffery.  Despite the drafting abilities, the team is fairly strong in-season, and will make roster moves that help sustain a competitive edge. What has been lacking in HBK's department is foresight. Often times, when faced with tough decisions or risky choices, the team is afraid of making the wrong move, and so makes no move at all. A perfect example of this was his decision to stay with Stafford in the 2013 semi-finals despite reports of a snow game. Conversely, Bomba benched Kurt Warner in 2008 for Shaun Hill when the weather in New England called for snow. The decision won Bomba the title. Not benching Stafford cost HBK a chance at a title.

Expect things to get better for team sexy boy. He hasn't peeked as a franchise yet, and needs to continue making the playoffs to help the league forget the dark years of playoff-less football. If he can manage to make the right choices and take enough risk, his entire brand will benefit from it.

2015 Preview

Potential Keepers = Good

• Eddie Lacy #9
• Alshon Jeffery #28

Schedule = Good

• x2 = Vosgee Gyank and BDiddy

Draft

Eddie Lacy and Alshon Jeffery are almost locks to be kept by HBK when the draft roles around. Both players are elite and offer good enough value for where they are being kept. Selecting at the ninth spot will mean that HBK is going to be the first pick of the back third of the draft, where Cobra, Prime and Jaj await. Watching them battle for picks will be very interesting. With HBK's history of poaching rookies, we would expect that a few of those players won't make the latter half of the draft more times than not. With an RB and WR locked up in rounds one and three respectively, HBK has the option of going with any position in round two. Typically, based on his history, an RB would be where the Michaels will lean, and Gordon, Gurly, Spiller or Morris could be had. If he elects to go WR, Kelvin Benjamin or Andre Johnson. We don't anticipate a quarterback to go early to HBK, but you never know.

Schedule

Based on last years finishes, HBK gets to play Vosgee and BDiddy twice. Both teams were lottery teams, and while don't expect them to both be horrible, based on last years records, this is an advantage for HBK. Neither of the match-ups with the teams will benefit HBK, as they mostly occur outside the bye weeks. Week 10 is when Vosgee comes to town, but all keepers will be active. Unfortunately, HBK didn't luck out with the keepers' bye weeks, as both the Bears and Packers are on bye the same week, week 7. That week, Bomba, the team HBK plays will be at an advantage. Otherwise, the four games against the two division opponents in the Dolma division should be winnable depending on how well HBK drafts.

AFFL Team Pre-Draft Preview '15: Cobra Kai

Cobra Kai owner Sayyad

For the next twelve days, the AFFL will give you a break down of each manager and preview their 2015 Fantasy season. We will take a look at what the team has done up to this point, their current keeper situation, and take an early look at how the difficulty of their schedule. Teams will be previewed in reverse draft order, starting with 12 and ending at 1. You can further see more about each manager and team by clicking on the teams tab and visiting each team page.

10. Cobra Kai

History:

• 2013 AFFL Champion
• 2014 3rd place finish
• Has made playoffs 4 of 8 years
• Has won 9 games during regular season only once.
• Has routinely had great quality keepers over past two years.
• Analytics used to determine best draft strategy
• Shrewd trade dealer. Once had five separate multi-player trades in two day span

Cobra Kai has become a viable force in the AFFL rather quickly, coming out of nowhere to win the league title in 2013 and becoming the first non-Lalazarian team to do so since Hartan did it in 2007.  Prior to the 2013 season, Cobra had gone three season without making the playoffs, and had only one victory in the post-season in the years between '07-'09. His history isn't one that showcases much dominance over a long period of time  (54-51 lifetime record; 51% winning percentage; 5-4 playoffs). In fact, he has won at least nine games during the regular season only once, while all other AFFL Champs and Prime Time have done it multiple times: Bomba (5), Prime (3), Hartan (2), Awesome (2), Jaj (2). Critics may add all this up and say his AFFL title was merely a flash in the pan. Then again, Kai could just now be finding himself. Since the AFFL turned into a keeper league, Cobra has relied heavily on analytics to guide his team to the top, and its worked. He is often times one of the most tuned in managers in the league, and crunches the numbers as well as or better than anyone else. Entering the 2015 season, Kai has plenty of keeper of options and is viewed as one of the teams that shouldn't be taken lightly on anyone's schedule.

Cobra makes his money during the season, primarily with his in-season management. While he hasn't drafted terribly in years past by any means, his in-season roster moves and trades are what have typically defined the Cobra brand. Weekly starting line-ups hardly have big points wasted on the bench. Kai works the phones like nobodies business, frequently exploring trades to make his teams better every week. He's one of the shrewdest traders in the business, frequently exploring multi-team and multi-player deals. It was this kind of work that resulted in his championship in 2013. You can rest assured that as the trade deadline approaches, Cobra will use whatever leverage he has to improve his roster for one final playoff push.

With a title under his belt, and a third place finish last year, Cobra can further solidify his place at the head table with another strong finish in 2015. He has established himself as one of the top teams in the league, and if he can continue to show sustained success, he will quickly move into the realm of elite.

2015 Preview

Potential Keepers = Good

• Jordy Nelson Pick #22
• Lamar Miller Pick #52
• Jordan Matthews #71

Schedule = Medium

• x2 = Jaj Cousteau and Awesomeness

Draft

Jordy Nelson should be one of the keepers Cobra hangs onto prior to the draft, and we anticipate he will do just that. Pick number twenty-two is good value for one of the top WRs in the game. Depending on Kai's draft strategy, he could elect to keep either Lamar Miller or Jordan Matthews. Lamar Miller could be had in the fourth round, so it's possible that Kai will keep Matthews and draft Miller to retain both. The interesting part of the draft will be watching The last four teams, HBK, Cobra, Prime, Jaj battle it out for picks. All four have similar situations, with one RB and one WR as a keeper. Cobra may elect to do what everyone else isn't doing in the back four and that might not be a bad idea. At pick #10, we'd expect Cobra to select any position, including quarterback. A Rodgers to Jordy combo would be very tempting. If he chooses to go with a WR, Megatron should be there for the team to select.

Schedule

Bye weeks are crucial to any team, and by the looks of things. Cobra will face both Jaj and Awesomeness with all keepers available. Cousteau's team could be very strong with Brown and Charles, and despite the poor showing the last few years, Awesomeness has AP and Hopkins as keepers. Both teams won't be push-overs come the regular season. Looking at Cobra's keeper's byes, he will face Sev.i week five without Lamar Miller, Hartan week 7 without Jordy Nelson, and Bomba week 8 without Jordan Matthews. All those teams will have keepers intact, so Kai will be at a slight disadvantage in those games as it sits now. Of course, this is an extremely early look and more will be known after the draft. As it stands now, Cobra looks to have a fairly mixed bag when it comes to ease of schedule.

AFFL Team Pre-Draft Preview '15: Prime Time

For the next twelve days, the AFFL will give you a break down of each manager and preview their 2015 Fantasy season. We will take a look at what the team has done up to this point, their current keeper situation, and take an early look at how the difficulty of their schedule. Teams will be previewed in reverse draft order, starting with 12 and ending at 1. You can further see more about each manager and team by clicking on the teams tab and visiting each team page.

11. Prime Time

History:

• 2014 runner-up
• One of four original founding managers.
• Made playoffs 6 of 9 seasons
• Has finished in the top 3 five times in 9 seasons.
• Has had a winning record in every season but two.
• Never had less than six wins
• Drafted two Qbs in the first three rounds twice. Backfired both times.

When you think of the AFFL and its teams, there are few that jump right out. Prime Time, a.k.a. the bully, is one of those few. He has been a presence in the league since its inception, and while many will say that Prime Time teams are over-hyped, he has the resume to back it up. Last years runner-up has finished in the top three in two-thirds of the seasons he's been in the league. If that's not impressive enough, Prime has had winning seasons every year except two, and has never finished with less than six wins. There isn't another team in the league that can claim that same feat. Consistently good, and always a threat for the post-season, Prime Time is, simply put, one of the elite franchises of the AFFL. 

If there is one word that would define a PT team  it's depth. PT drafting strategies aim to build depth at all positions, but give extra attention to the running back group. Frequent pick-ups and small moves that could pay bigger dividends later characterize the teams approach. However, the more peculiar part of the team is the aura that surrounds it. PT teams are like the creature in a horror movie that comes from the swamp that can't be stopped. The smorgasbord of players and mesh-mash of personnel always seem to perform when the team's back is up against the wall.  It doesn't matter how bad the team's drafts are initially, by mid-season, and despite a losing record, Prime will find a way to become relevant. Whether it be through a trade, a waiver pick-up, or having one of his many handcuff RB's get a starting gig, things seem to always work out.

There have been a few red styes in PT history. We wouldn't characterize PT as one of the best drafters in the league by any stretch of the imagination. He successfully lost the opportunity to be characterized as such after he drafted two top tier quarterbacks with his first three picks on two separate occasions thinking that he could trade one for a top tier WR or RB. With other managers knowing he was desperate to trade, the market value for those players plummeted and he was forced to almost give the players away for nothing, a decision that ended up costing him the playoffs during one season.

With the second highest winning percentage of active managers at 58%, and considering the previously mentioned top three finishes, PT should be considered a dynasty. However, despite the success and high level of consistency, PT has failed to reach AFFL Nirvana and solidify his name in the pantheon of other AFFL champions. While lady luck is on PT's side during the season, she doesn't want to stay for the final dance when it comes to the playoffs. Prime hopes to change that this year.

2015 Preview

Potential Keepers = Excellent

• Levon Bell Pick #26
• Brandon Cooks Pick #48

Schedule = Medium

• x2 = Jaj Cousteau and Magnum Sev.i

Draft

Drafting Levon Bell in the ninth round two years ago has paid off huge dividends for Prime. He now is able to keep the consensus overall #1 pick in most any fantasy draft at pick #26. Cooks is also great value at pick #48, about a full round after where he usually goes. With an RB/WR in place in the middle rounds, and still having a 1st and 2nd round pick, PT has the luxury of going building more depth at those positions if he cares, or going Aaron Rodgers at pick 11 if he's there. Should he opt to build his WR depth a player like Megatron or Aj Green (highest avail) he would then more than likely would add an RB in the second round to cover Bell's pending two game suspension. We are fairly certain that running backs will be the primary targets for PT during the middle rounds, something the team does nearly every draft. The intriguing question will be to see if teams that are drafting around him (cobra kai and Jaj) steal many of his mid round picks to do the same, as all three teams have similar keeper builds in RB/WR. As long as he doesn't take two quarterbacks with his first two picks, he should be primed to start the year strong. Not as strong as when Bell gets back on the field, but strong none-the-less.

Schedule

As it looks right now, Prime won't be affected by any of the bye weeks to the teams that he is forced to play twice. Jaj's team will have two very strong keepers on it in Antonio Brown and Charles, so it is highly likely that his team will be stronger than most. Magnum may have only one keeper in Emmanuel Sanders, so his squad is yet to be finalized. We can anticipate that since the team is drafting in the first six rounds, they will get enough play-makers to roster a competitive team. Looking at the rest of teams, PT will have Bell on bye week 11, while HBK will have both keepers available. That's a long way away, but something to note. We can safely say that as of now, the four games he plays against the teams he play twice in the tough Mazoon division won't pose too much of a problem for PT.

AFFL Team Pre-Draft Preview '15: Jaj Cousteau

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Jaj Cousteau manager Chris Sirounian

For the next twelve days, the AFFL will give you a break down of each manager and preview their 2015 Fantasy season. We will take a look at what the team has done up to this point, their current keeper situation, and take an early look at how the difficulty of their schedule. Teams will be previewed in reverse draft order, starting with 12 and ending at 1. You can further see more about each manager and team by clicking on the teams tab and visiting each team page.

12. Jaj Cousteau

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History:

• Current AFFL Champion
• Has made playoffs 4 of last 6 years
• Has only won seven or more games twice in a regular season
• Drafted Arian Foster 4 rounds early the year he broke out
• Traded for Antonio Brown in losing season for keeper purposes. Helped win title.
• Weekly waiver pick-up fiend

For the past several years, Jaj Cousteau has been the wild card in the AFFL Fantasy deck. When you think he will zig, he zags. When you think you've got him figured out, he changes. Cousteau is one of the rare fantasy managers that doesn't play by any given ranking system or rules. He marches by the beat of his own drum and isn't afraid to do what he feels is best.

However, the history of his managerial skills produce a mixed bag. He began his AFFL career making the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. He also became the fifth team to win an AFFL title last season, sneaking into the postseason as a sixth seed and running the table. Despite the few years of success, Cousteau has managed to only have a "winning season" (seven wins or more) in only two of his six years in the league. Two of his playoff births were garnished with six wins seasons, and one can argue that this was more a product of luck than of true strength of roster.

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But luck can't account for the skillful moves of manager Jaj when it comes to drafting and trading. It was his foresight (and perhaps being a Texan homer) that brought him to nab Arian Foster the year he broke out four rounds before anyone would consider taking him. It was also that same foresight that pushed Jaj to get Antonio Brown in a trade during the 2013 season to retain as a keeper in the third round, which eventually lead him to his AFFL title. Cousteau's best attributes are his in-season management, particularly his weekly roster moves. He has been known to make great pick-ups for his roster the week a player goes ballistic. (see Marvin Jones '13). It's this skill that has helped him turning disappointing seasons around and stay afloat through turbulent times.

His overall record to this point hovers just above 50% (40-38), but there is no doubt that that Cousteau has established himself as a yearly player in the merry-go-round that is the AFFL fantasy season.  With shrewd trading and drafting tactics, along with his "luck of the Jaj," Cousteau is a better than average bet to make some noise in any given season.

2015 Preview

Potential Keepers = Very good

• Jamaal Charles Pick #12
• Antonio Brown Pick #24

Schedule = Difficult

• x2 = Prime Time and Cobra

Draft

With two of the top keepers in the league at great value, Champ Cousteau already has a leg up on the rest of the league. He won't be drafting in the first two rounds should he keep Jamaal Charles and Antonio Brown as we think he should, but that won't matter; those two players have great value at those spots. Charles and Brown are both very likely to finish in the top five of their respected positions. Getting them for nearly 9 and 15 picks later than their ADP's respectively is amazing. The key for Jaj will be how he builds off these center pieces. He'll more than likely choose more depth at RB/WR in the 3rd round, but don't be surprised if he picks up a QB between rounds 4-6. If he can manage a few late round gems, and putting injury aside for a second, Cousteau should exit the draft with a fairly strong roster, and be an immediate threat to make a return trip to the playoffs.

Schedule

The Mazoon division was extremely tough last season, with four teams making it to the post-season and three of those teams finishing in the top three. While predicting strength of schedule is impossible before the draft, we can examine which team Cousteau will have to play twice, namely Prime Time and Cobra Kai. Ouch. The two teams that finished in second and third place respectively are going to be a tough out most weeks. Prime Time has a solid keeper in Le'von Bell, and Cobra is one year removed from winning the AFFL title. Neither team will be severely effected by bye weeks, meaning teams will clash at full strength barring injury. Both Prime and Cobra are highly skilled in setting line-ups and will surely give Jaj all he can handle. You can bet that wins will be difficult to come by for at least four games during the season.

PDiddy calls to congratulate BDiddy on selecting #1 in the 2015 AFFL draft

"Congratulations on getting that b****.  Now lets win this thing." Those were the words of Sean Combs to BDiddy owner Baret Chakarian shortly after team Diddy won the rights to select first in the 2015 AFFL Draft that will be held Aug. 28th at 830pm at the house of Cousteau. Awesomeness will select second with Magnum Sev.i selecting third.

"It was a great feeling knowing that King Diddy, the First Diddy, Papa Diddy, Oh Mighty God Diddy, was as fired up for winning the draft selection as we were," said Chakarian. "He's a busy guy. We're busy too, but not as busy as him. Good feeling."

Combs called Chakarian at 11:03 pm pacific time, and had a ten minute conversation with the AFFL manager. Contents of the conversation were not made public per BDiddy's request, but information leaked to the Courier said that Combs put together a short list of players he did not wish to see Chakarian draft. Baret is believed to be reviewing the list with fellow co-managers Monkey mike and Tiggly Wiggly.

Diddy entered the draft selection process with the fourth number of ping pong balls in the bin, giving the team a 13% shot at winning the first pick overall. With hardly a keeper to retain, selecting first is a huge boost for Diddy, who had been stuck in the middle of the draft during previous years. Co-manager Monkey Mike explained that had they not jumped into the top three they were simply "f***ed."

Failing to make the post-season over the last two years, BDiddy looks to bounce back in a big way in 2015 and return to the glory years where they were a steady fixture in the playoffs. Interestingly enough, the same can be said for the two teams selecting after them, Awesomeness and Magnum Sev.i. All three teams at the top of the draft have at one time been one of the power teams in the league, but have fallen from grace.  With the first overall pick, DIddy has a leg up on trying to rebuild. But don't use that term around Chakarian. He won't accept it.

"We're reloading bro. What rebuild? Do you see me wearing a construction hat? Then what is this rebuild ca ca-may-me? Save that rebuilding word for teams like Vosgee. I don't want to hear it bro."

Reloading starts August 28th. BDiddy has the first bullet in the chamber. Stay tuned.

2015 AFFL Draft Order Selection Show

Ping Pong balls were placed in the AFFL Lottery Machine and the results are in. Who got the first pick in the 2015 AFFL Draft to be held on August 28th? Watch the video below.

AFFL MEGA PLAYOFF PREVIEW

We are here at last. We are here at last. Thank God almighty, we are here at last.

Week fourteen. The first week of the fantasy playoffs. Six teams survived the regular season of the AFFL and now will square off for three weeks to determine who gets to hold the famed AFFL trophy. Surprises are included in the playoff pack, not only because of the teams that made it to the postseason, but the teams left out. BDiddy, a fixture in the playoffs for the past three seasons failed to finish in the top six. Shocking. The Atomic Bomba, the four-time AFFL champion and usual lock to be playing week fourteen failed as well. Double shocker. Two teams who were heavy favorites at the beginning of the year to be playing come postseason time, out. The AFFL, where nothing can be taken for granted. Nothing.

The current group of playoff teams are a great mix of veterans and newcomers, as well as last years champ. The trash talk has escalated to a fever pitch, with Prime Time leading the group. Having already called out next years draft in his area (the winner of the AFFL gets to select where the draft will be held in 2015) manager Ara has thrown down the gauntlet and will need to survive the fantasy gods wrath, as well as the heavy jinxing that team Cobra Kai has engaged in during the past three weeks. Rumor is that Prime Time has already purchased a hundred and fifty rabbits feet to fend off any such attempts at curbing his 'joo-joo.'

While Prime Time and Cobra come off as being favorites, the most interesting teams lie somewhere in the middle. Hartan, HBK, Grabbers, and Jaj Cousteau all find themselves with unique story lines as they charge up the playoff hill. Despite having won an AFFL title in '07, Hartan is looking to win his first under the current twelve team format. Grabbers looks to reach the finals for the second time in three years, becoming only the third team to achieve such a feat. HBK has had playoff disappoints galore, but finds himself squarely placed in week fifteen and only one game away from reaching the finals for the first time in his history. Jaj Cousteau has never won a playoff game, and having squeaked into the playoffs as the sixth seed, is looking to become the first team to win a title with a losing record. And don't forget Cobra Kai's bid to become the third team to win back-to-back AFFL titles. Fun stuff indeed.

But just who has a legit shot at winning the title? Just what should a title team look like? If history is any guide, we can look at few key components to championship teams and just what the current crop of teams will need in order to stand a fighting chance. We can break down these components to five key characteristics that have been a regular on winning squads of yesteryear. These are: Team's Ceiling, Teams Health, Diversity of Line-up Options, Opponents Weekly Total, and Plain 'ol Luck. These "Five Pillars" are usually the most important when finding a champion in the AFFL. With these in mind, lets look at how this years postseason teams fit in with the "Five Pillars" and who has the best shot of winning the AFFL title.

Team's Ceiling - SET a New High Score?

It goes without saying that the more points you score, the better your chances of winning are. Since 2008, the AFFL Champion has scored more than 135 points in the final game four times, with three of those games clearing 150 points; 169 (2008), 158 (2012), 159 (2013). That's a whole heck-of-a-lotta points that a team will have to contend with. In fact, the lowest point total to win a championship was 122.50 in 2010, and only once, once, in any playoff game over the last seven years has a champion scored less than one hundred points on the road to the title (Awesomeness, 2010 - 92.42).  What this all means is that should a team hope to win-it-all, they'll need to do it by putting up a ton of points and not hoping they squeak out a low scoring game. The playoffs are a different animal entirely.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at the current crop of teams and see just how they stack up when it comes to point totals. Below is a chart that shows a teams highest and lowest point totals during the 2014 regular season. Using a teams highs and lows, we can see which squad is best equipped to put up a boatload of points come tourney time.

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Looking at the chart above, we can see just how good Grabbers has been all season. They have a ceiling that rivals those of other playoff teams with a floor that is above a hundred and ten points. Those kinds of margins are what you look for when picking a champion. When it comes to sheer points, nobody has scored higher than Prime Time. The 168 point outing was no doubt a result of Peyton Manning, and with a ceiling that is at least nine points better than the other playoff squads, Prime Time is a good bet to outscore the field on any given Sunday.
These two teams make-up the top of the heap when it comes to point totals.

Cobra has scored 150 points once, but it should be noted that he had many outings in the 130 range. While that is slightly out of the allotted championship bar of 135 points set by the majority of finals of years past, it is still a high number and good enough to win on most any given week.

HBK and Hartan pose the biggest enigma of the group. Each have had their share of very high, highs, and the lowest of lows. HBK set the low for the season with 52 points, while Hartan didn't do much better at 54. The fact that Hartan has scored below ninety points three times gives us reason to suspect that the team could drop a dud come weeks 14-16. Yes the line-ups are different than they were early in the season, however, teams carry an essence with them, creating a team identity. While players change, manager choices do not, which can lead to poor performances. Hartan is definitely on notice, as is HBK.

While they haven't scored that high that often, Jaj Cousteau can claim to the second highest total this season amongst the group. He's only scored over 140 twice, but shows that on a good week, he can put up points to contend. Not too shabby.

It's clear that the odds on favorite to outscore the field are Grabbers and Prime Time, while the other four teams are good enough to contend should the chips fall the right way. So far, nothing here really separates anyone from the pack.

Team Health - Medic Needed?

In 2009, the finals came down to the wire between Awesomeness and the Atomic Bomba, where an ankle injury during the final game of the season to one of Atomic Bomba's players cost his team the title by .65 points. Tough luck. Injuries just can't be a part of a winning game plan, and teams that are the healthiest during the playoffs are usually the ones that survive the grueling anguish of the last three weeks.

Heading into week fourteen, here are the teams biggest question marks as it pertains to the health of their players.

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Coming into the postseason, Hartan and Cobra find themselves in the healthiest of situations. Neither team has a notable injury that could derail their starting line-up. Meanwhile, Prime Time is hurting bad. Injuries to his RB core may leave the team with little firepower come week 15 (he has a bye in week 14). The injuries to Prime Time are significant, as the team's ceiling is the highest of the group. This will definitely impact Prime Time's potential output and could derail hopes of returning to the finals once again.

Aside from Prime Time, most of the other teams are relatively healthy, and injuries shouldn't impact their teams performance much. Jaj does lose a key player in McKinnon, but he wasn't exactly putting up points weekly. The same can be said for Brandon Marshall. Grabbers has more than enough depth to deal with losing Marshall.

Diversity of Line-up - Who has Options?

While it is true that most teams should cut depth for starters prior to the trade deadline once they have secured a playoff birth, depth does play a huge part of a teams success of any champion. Having options and maximizing good match-ups will help a team tremendously. It's not great to be pigeon-holed into having to play a starter because you have no better option. Yes, sometimes it could be a good thing, as it limits the error in choices that a manager can make. However, being forced to play an RB against a tough run defense isn't ideal, and could be the difference between a win and a loss.  Teams equipped to maneuver around tough match-ups and injuries will be the ones standing come week 16.

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Above are the playoff rosters for all six teams. HBK and Prime are both on bye for the first week of the playoffs, so they won't have their depth tested until week 15.

We can put the bench players of each team into two categories to help classify and analyze the rosters. One category will be "depth," where players have very little value on their own and are only playable in dire situations. The other category will be "startable," where a player could be seen as  a flex play, or a WR or RB play should the need arise. We will focus only on position players and exclude defenses for now.

Here is how each teams bench breaks down into the two above mentioned categories: depth and startable.

Prime Time: 5 startable, 2 depth

Grabbers: 4 startable, 1 depth

Jaj: 3 startable, 4 depth

Hartan: 3 startable, 4 depth

HBK: 3 startable, 3 depth

Cobra: 2 startable, 4 depth

With a bench that bolsters Larry Fitzgerlad, Steven Jackson, Blount, Latavius Murray and Donte Moncrief, Prime Time has a very deep bench that he could go to in a pinch. Murray and Moncrief offer some pizzazz while other players seem a little less exciting. Ara will need all the depth he can handle, as injuries are already beginning to mount.

Despite the more playable starters on Prime Time's team, Grabbers has perhaps the bench with the biggest upside, in Lefall and Herron. Both these bench players are key components to their respective teams, and have upside when utilized in the right match-ups. There is also Terrence West, who, with a hip injury to Isiah Crowell, could take over lead back duties very soon.

Cobra's bench lacks the numbers, but has two solid pieces in Matthews and Miller. Match-ups for both will determine their output, but with an extra piece at both key positions, Cobra won't have trouble filling in for a bad match-up.

HBK is also looking good with Sanchez and Benjamin on the bench. Benjamin gives Michaels a solid four Wrs to choose from on any given week, while Sanchez can help alleviate a bad match-up for Rivers.  This could be crucial week 15 and 16 when weather could play into QB plays (something HBK has no doubt pondered since last season).

The two teams with the least upside in reserve are Jaj and Hartan. With only a few players that offer any real startable value, both these teams could be hard pressed to avoid a bad flex play or WR match-up. Jaj particularly has it a bit rough, with only Landry and Asiata as viable plays, and not exciting ones at that.

Of course, things can change over the course of a week, and players that were merely depth can become instant starters, so we can't say for certain how things will shape out during the playoffs. But as it stands now, four teams look poised to help alleviate any match-up problems, while two may find themselves pigeon-holed into playing a guy because "they have to." That's never a good option to have.

Opponent's Points - Don't Tread on Me.

While there is no way to predict just how an opponent will do against another opponent on any given week, we can look at some trends associated with the current crop of playoff teams to see just how they did during the 2014 regular season on a weekly basis as it pertains to their opponents point totals.

In order to accurately asses a teams record, we should look at how many wins they gained due to low points by an opponent. Conversely, looking at how many losses a team had due to an opponent out scoring a high point total can also tell us something about the strength of a team.

Below is a chart analyzing the number of points opponents were putting up against the playoff teams and their respective responses to weeks that were either extremely low or high.  We will say that a teams "low points" will be determined relative to their weekly ppg. For example, if a team averages 123 points per game, and only scores 100 but still wins, they benefited from a low point total that week. Conversely, if they outscore their ppg and still lose, that is noted as well. A teams ppg can be found on each teams yahoo team page. They were not posted in the chart.

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Examining the chart above reveals just how teams were fairing on a weekly basis during the season. It's worth noting that Prime Time benefited with three victories despite having weeks where his point total was far below his weekly point total. Hartan garnished two wins despite a low output, although they also lost two games when they put up a ton of points.

Conversely, Cobra, Jaj, and Grabbers each lost three games due to an opponent outscoring their high weekly total. Grabbers had three victories taken away despite outscoring his weekly average.

Looking at Opponents PPG over the entirety of a season, we can see that Jaj had the worst weekly opponent average of all the squads, at 129.6 ppg. That is a very high average, one that was nearly sixteen points above the second highest team Cobra Kai.

Hartan and Grabbers benefited the most from a softer weekly ppg from their opponents, but still managed to lose games despite weeks where they scored very well. 

Flat in the middle was HBK, who seemed to hit exactly as he should, winning games when he performed well, and losing those when he didn't. There was no deviation from this during his season. His team was exactly what his record said it was. 8-5.

We can interpret the above information from a metaphysical standpoint as well as a statistical one, and both offer the same conclusion. Statistically and "fantasy wise," teams seem to score huge on Jaj Cousteau, and his team could be prone to rough weekly outputs from opponents. The team that could most likely lose despite a high outing are Grabbers, Hartan, and Cobra Kai. Prime Time looks like he is the team that could sneak by a week where he scores the lowest points. Lastly, HBK is the most prone to not fall in either category, winning if he scores big, and losing if he doesn't.

Plain 'ol Luck - Do you Feel Lucky Punk?

Perhaps the most important factor of all. Luck. If there is anything we know about the AFFL playoffs is that is solely about "survival of the luckiest." Whomever has lady luck by their side has a great shot at being the last one standing come week 16.

How can you quantify Luck? Well, in the fantasy world it is mostly quantified by the "close" wins that a team can have. A win typically by three points or less will no doubt be labeled as "lucky." As it should. In fantasy, winning a game when it comes down to one pass, one catch, or one play is great for team moral and building "luck karma." Teams just seem to have things go their way and there is no explaining it other than luck. Everyone wants to be that team, especially when it comes playoff time.

Looking over the 2014 season there are a few notable games that stand out as being extremely lucky, and ones that can point to which teams have "luck" going into the postseason.

Here are the games of the 2014 season that were so close, they had had to have a little luck given for the winning team.

HBK Defeats Magnum Sev.i 105.92-103.16   (2.80)

Jaj Cousteau Defeats Grabbers 120.22-120.02   (.20)

Jaj Cousteau Defeats Hangin' 109.80 -107.10  (2.70)

Grabbers Defeats Cobra Kai 114.20-111.64   (2.56)

Prime Time Defeats Bomba 102.56-101.32   (1.24)

Ironically, all playoff teams were involved in close games this season, except Hartan. As you can see, the above games were extremely close, where one play in one game had a huge impact on the outcome.

Jaj Cousteau finds himself on the list twice, squeaking out two victories by a combined total of less than three points. If you factor in his six and seven record, the idea that he had to win out and get help from other teams, along with the close victories above, we can conclude that Cousteau has a lot of luck riding with him. It is no doubt one of the reasons that he has overcome a high opponents weekly output to find himself in the first round of the playoffs. What is also interesting to note, his first round match-up is against Grabbers, a team he narrowly defeated late in the season by .2 points. Cousteau definitely has luck on his side.

Grabbers, Prime Time, and HBK also have had their share of "lucky" wins. In the case of HBK, a 2.8 point defeat by Magnum Sev.i was the only reason that he managed to win the division and win the week 14 bye. Had the game ended in a loss, he would've finished in fifth place and ended up playing Cobra in round one.

Prime Time's lone lucky victory was against Bomba in week 11, knocking the Atomic one out of the playoffs. We have already pointed out that Prime Time has managed to squeeze by three victories during the season when he put up a low point total, and this further exemplifies his "Lucky" status. Not only does Ara have Lady Luck sitting next to him, she's washing his clothes too.

So who is it going to be? Which of the teams has the best shot to win? After breaking it all down above, we now get to put it all together and come up with some hard statements about each squad. While we can't say for sure which team will win it, we can speculate on the reasons why they will, or why they wont.

So here we go..

The Dark Horse

Why He'll Win-It-All

Jaj is a wild card. He's a drifter. He doesn't play by the rules and that's the way he likes it. You may look at his line-up and think there are no options available to him, but he sees opportunity. Marvin Jones big game last year. Drafting Arian Foster his break-out season in the second round. Jaj is built to take risks, and it's that kind of mentality that can get him a title. He's already survived a year where opponents bombarded him with points. He's managed to navigate his way from 3 wins to six wins and get help from others to squeak into the playoffs. There is no better battle tested team than this one. Oh and he's got pieces too. Brown, Charles, and Demeriyus provide a lethal core. With the second highest point total all year amongst the playoff teams, a high ceiling isn't a problem for the Jaj man. Lady Luck may well be on her way to Jaj's house right now after the season he's managed to go through. He's a team you don't want to play, and just the type of team that can win it all.

Why He Won't Win-it-All

Could his luck have run out? While the survival in the midst of pressure has been admirable, at some point the better team will win. Jaj has had some poor outings and has only put up more than 120 points only twice over the past five weeks. Colin Kapearnick isn't a championship caliber QB, not when you pit him against the likes of Stafford, Luck, and Manning. Without much pop up top, Jaj is going to be relying on a 35 year old TE and a Vikings RB core that is abysmal. Oh, and if that weren't enough, he'll have to go through Grabbers and HBK, two teams that have been at the top of their divisions all year. Good luck indeed. 

The Quiet Ones

Why They'll Win-It-All

They've already won it once, they know what it takes. Hartan has made the playoffs four consecutive seasons, finishing in the top four each time. Building all that playoff experience will come in handy when tough decisions have to be made. Plus, has anyone really heard from these guys lately? They just hovered around the six seed all season, quietly laying back while other teams took the spotlight. It's almost like the league forgot about them as being a threat. Consider that Stafford hadn't been Stafford all season, and that both he, Gordon, and ODB have come on late. They have the potential to explode and nobody really knows what to make of the line-up as of right now. And that's a good thing. Hartan is being underestimated. Their second biggest point total of the season came the last week of the season against HBK. They could be peaking at the perfect time, and nobody is considering this. Scary.

Why They Won't Win-it-All

It's Hartan. They do this every season. They find away to squeak into the playoffs, hang around a while, then get ousted just before the finals. A Hartan team is a safe team, but not one known to tip the fantasy point scales when it comes the postseason. They play things safe, and their roster, despite having a lot of potential, has also put up a few very low totals this year. With three games in front of them, it's highly likely that one of those low point totals comes up to bite them in the butt. Hartan will also have to go through two very tough teams, Cobra and Prime Time, all while relying on a rookie WR and another that has missed 3/4ths of the season. Not exactly a recipe that breeds confidence now does it.

The Favorite that Isn't a Favorite

Why He'll Win-It-All

He's one game from the finals. Just one. Has anyone noticed that HBK has the best WR core in the playoffs? In a pass-happy league, WRs have the most upside, and with four solid ones, HBK will have a severe advantage most weeks. High point totals during the season? Check. Close victory? Check. Team Overdue? Check. He put up 155 points week 13, so this could be the beginning of hot streak. While the RBs aren't producing, he has plenty of upside on the bench with handcuffs that could become lead dogs. Oh and he wont need to worry about week 14, did we mention that? He'll get a Grabbers team that could be without Marshall, or an overachieving Jaj Cousteau team that has QB problems and a week RB2. Both won't pose match-up problems for him. And with depth at QB, he'll be able to avoid the weather this year. Unfinished business from 2013 is always a great storyline to ride to a title.

Why He Won't Win-it-All

He can't win in week 15. He's been here before, but hasn't been able to get over the hump. There are many teams in the mix, and all of the teams from the Mazoon division have put up more points than he has on the season. Also, where are his RBs? Vereen isn't the type to carry an RB load, and Lacy has been hit or miss. Bennett has a bum ankle and could kill the TE advantage he has. Bottom line, HBK hasn't won in the playoffs before because he always falls short. Luck seems to leave him when it matters most. It could do so again, for a team that won a weak division.

The Champ OF THE MiDDLE TIER CONTENDERS

Why He'll Win-It-All

Two words: Demarco Murray. The same player that carried him to a title last year is looking unstoppable again. Cobra has a team that can pack-a-punch on any given week. There is no point total that they can't top. Putting up 150 points during the season gives the squad a high ceiling. Forte and Murray give the team a high floor. Not a good combo for opponents. He's already started off hot, and looks to keep it going through the weekend. Another bad sign for the rest of the group. Cobra will win because he is the champ, and once you climb the mountain you know how to avoid the pitfalls the second time around. It's an easy path to the finals for Kai. A watered down Hartan team, and an injury riddled Prime Time roster are all that stand in his way. That's no problem for a team that bolsters a 123.5 ppg average, one of the highest amongst the active teams. Plus, he's completely healthy. Health=Title.

Why He Won't Win-it-All

Has he gotten overconfident? Cocky perhaps? Pride will be his downfall, thinking he can't lose will be the beginning of the end for Kai. Having already started the jinxing of Prime Time three weeks before the start of the playoffs, Cobra is setting himself up for the wrath of the fantasy gods. They never like an overly aggressive jinxing manager. Russell Wilson isn't exactly a championship caliber fantasy QB. There could be a dud game one of these weeks. Couple that with an aging Andre Johnson and possession receiving Jordan Matthews and you have a recipe for a dud week. It isn't going to be difficult to beat Cobra week 15, should the team have tough match-ups with the above mentioned players. (which they do)

Second in COmmand

Why He'll Win-It-All

Payback. He's comeback to claim what was his two years ago. And he's been good all season. Andrew Luck is perhaps the best QB in the playoffs. Who needs Manning. Gronk gives the team a huge advantage over all other TE's. We also saw how he's the deepest team of the group, with LaFell, West, and Herron. Grabbers has been away from the playoffs for years, and the fact that he's made it back twice in two years means there is something special brewing. It's like the days when Awesomeness first cracked the postseason. Grabbers has that destiny feel to him. Always saying the right things. If it's not going to be Ara, then it's going to have to be Grabbers. Considering that he's lost three games when he got outscored despite a high point total, Grabbers is +3 in the win department, which would make him a heavy favorite. Oh and his floor is 113 points. 113!! That is stellar.

Why He Won't Win-it-All

History. History says that Grabbers is good for a second, then gone the next. We think this could be the story of the Grabbers franchise. While he's done admirably getting to the postseason, he feels like a team that could implode. It may have already started with the duds laid by Bryant and Marshall week14. Nothing more to say than that. Couldn't beat Prime Time in week 3 of regular season, and loss to Jaj in week 11 could be an omen of what will happen again.

THE LEADER OF THE PACK

Why He'll Win-It-All

He's Ara. He's been hanging around forever. One of the founding fathers of the AFFL and he hasn't won a title? Doesn't make sense. He nearly won one a few years back, but lost to Bomba. This season, he eliminated Bomba week 11. That's a sign from the fantasy gods. Prime has a QB that will out duel either one he faces in the next round. Big advantage. He also has the benefit of a bench that has a number of pieces that can be used weekly. If Murray plays and gets the load, forget about it. It's over. He's put up over 150 points twice, with the highest total of the year coming at his hands (168).  Prime Time doesn't make many line-up mistakes, which means that his roster will usually be at optimal or close to it. Peyton Manning has unfinished business in the NFL, and that means that Prime Time could be riding 40 point QB totals to the AFFL title. We think the chances are much better than 60%. And hey, it's Ara, he never goes away.

Why He Won't Win-it-All

Injuries. He's had too many. If no Jennings, Ellington, Watkins, there is no chance he can defeat either Cobra or Hartan in week 15, nor anyone that makes it to week 16 from the other side. He has already called out the league and claimed the draft will be in his neck of the woods. That is a big no-no. He's essentially jinxed himself, something he cannot undo at this point. Lastly, and most importantly, Ara has for years lambasted the commissioner and the league's office for failing to produce to his liking. All that talk has generated bad AFFL Karma and it will surely come around to bite him in the butt. The AFFL doesn't take lightly to teams that don't respect the shield. He's been around a long time, and nothing he's done has ever worked to getting him a title. Things won't change now, especially when the cold weather curtails Peyton Mannings points and Ara's title hopes for good.

Predictions:

Round 1

Cobra over Hartan

Jaj over Grabbers

Round 2

Jaj over HBK

Prime Time over Cobra

Final

Jaj over Prime Time

Martin Kove Forced Cobra Kai to Start Eli Manning in Week 4. Billy Zadka as a co-manager?

Sensei John Kreese sought out Sayyad in order to "suggest" he start Eli Manning on Thursday night.  Eli swept the leg

"Start Eli." Those were the chilling words of famed Cobra Kai Sensei Martin Kove as he stared down Sayyad and his roster at a local Los Angeles coffee shop prior to week four's match-up versus Prime Time.  Sayyad doesn't take roster advice from anyone other than his fifteen month old co-manager Samuel, but few suggestions have come from such intimidating men such as Kove. It turned out to be a winning move, as Eli Manning went off for forty points, leading Cobra to their second victory of the season.

Sayyad explained how the unusual moment happened.

"I was at a coffee bean just looking over things, when I notice Martin Kove walking  over to me. I'm like, 'Yo' Mr. Kove, how are you man?' but he doesn't say a word, and grabs my computer, and begins making changes. Now I'm like, 'Yo' Mr. Kove, What are you doing my man?' and that's when he turns to me and looks me dead in the eye and says, 'Start Eli.' I was kinda shocked cuz you know Eli has sucked, so I hesitate a bit. Then he says, 'You got a problem with that?' I responded, 'No Sensei.' Then he smiled, ordered a mocha-frappuccino latte, and left."

The random encounter is shrouded in mystery. It is unknown how Kove found Sy at a random Los angeles venue, or how he knew that he was mulling over quarterback options with Russell Wilson on bye. Many speculate that he has a sixth sense for all things Cobra Kai and performs deep meditations where his intuition seeks out all Cobra Kai relevant issues in the universe. We don't doubt that as fact one bit.

Many friends of Kove's have said that he has been secretly following the AFFL's Cobra Kai for years, even reportedly popping champagne bottles when the team won the AFFL title last season. While he has a  passion for fantasy football, he has been told to stay away from the game as the stress from watching players on Sundays poses serious risks to his health, making this meeting even more unusual.

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Sayyad and Billy Zadka posing at the Kicks for Dictionaries charity event in West Hollywood, a karate event that helps raise money to get books in schools.

Sayyad sought Kove out following Sunday's victory in order to thank him, but was unable to locate his whereabouts. Instead, he got another surprise on Tuesday afternoon, when he bumped into Billy Zadka at a charity Karate event in West Hollywood.

"So, I went over to Kicks for Dictionaries, a charity event in West Hollywood to help kids get books in schools," explained Sayyad, "and I see Zadka, and I'm like, 'Yo', Billy, What's up man?' and the first thing he does is tell me how big a fan he is of the Cobra Kai, and I'm like, 'Huh. Interesting.'  Then he begs me to let him join the team, and I'm like, 'ya. ya. we'll see.' Effing Zadka, man."

Zadka is extremely serious about joining the Kai for a managerial role and has reportedly offered to change the current co-managers diapers for a month just so Samuel would know, as Billy put it, that "[Zadka] is still below him." It is unclear as to whether Sayyad will bring Zadka on for a full-time position. The results of his suggestion to bench Delanie Walker this week in favor of Travis Kelce may factor into the decision.

With two Cobra Kai alumni fully engaged into helping the team repeat as AFFL Champions, Cobra Kai is looking stronger than ever during the midpoint of the season.

HBK Uses Wrestling to Motivate his Team. Suplex's Eddie Lacy.

In most practices around the football world, running backs take instruction from coaches and managers and improve their skills on the field. Occasionally, motivational tactics can range from words encouragement, to death drills.  But humbling a player on a wrestling mat has to be a first.

“He got to me. What can I say. The son-of-a-bitch got to me,” clamored ex-wrestling champion and manager HBK Shant Michaels. "I had to give him a little chin music to motivate his ass."

The player being referred to was packers star running back Eddie Lacy. What he got was a sweet suplex on the goal line, followed by a super fly Jimmy Snuka move off the goal posts, to a three count administered by Shane Vereen.

What began as innocent squabble between manager and an under performing player in Lacy exploded into a full fledged WWE style scene with teammates rolling out a wrestling mat on the touchdown area. Onlookers formed a human ring where Lacy was given a lesson in the ways of the HBK.  Alshon Jeffery explains:

“What happen was, Eddie was jawing at HBK sayin’ ‘you can’t wrestle no more, you a has been wrestler. Then Coach Shant said, ‘At least aint no has been after just one season,’ talking about Eddie's lack of numbers. Then shit just got crazy and Shane come running out the locker room with a full on mat yellin' 'It's on bitches. Coach gonna do this.' Lacy was screamin’ 'Sexy Boy? What?!' Ah man. It was funny.”

Witnesses described the fight as follows: HBK opened with a few clotheslines, and drop kicks, then eventually got Lacy into a sleeper hold. Lacy however reversed out of it, into a half-nelson, an eye gouge, then proceeded to unleash strikes to the head. HBK quickly countered with a strike to the gut and then running clothesline. A DDT, Suplex, and dive from the goal post later, Lacy was done.

Afterward, Eddie remained humble saying it was all in good fun.

“Na man, its not about me hating on coach. I just tried to put him in his place that all. Didn't work out”

Team HBK has wrestled their way to the top of the AFFL standings despite the slow start from Lacy. Hopefully this will be the motivation he needs to keep the winning streak going. He knew the pressure was on him to deliver, and he's up to the task.

"No doubt. I got to show up on Sunday. I'm gonna be there."

Now the question on everyone’s mind is will there be a rematch? Both HBK and Lacy have emphatically claimed that it was a one time deal, but Martelus Bennett wasn't so sure about that.

“Give ‘em about a week. Michaels will have Lacy in a headlock again. If not, I'll probably have to egg it them on to go for round two."

Bennett you son-of-a-bitch.

Hartan Offers Trade to Himself, then Rejects it.

Sometimes Hartan brings in a third party to evaluate a trade offer. The official Hartan Parrot named SheeShik takes on the task above. He's given crackers as compensation.

One of the most active teams in the AFFL when it comes to trades is team Hartan. They have been in the process of working blockbuster deals for a long time. So how do they do it? Apparently they practice on each other.

“We each own half of the team,” explained Harout, "so we offer each other trades and then accept or reject them. We know that if one of us accepts the trade offer, there is a good chance  another team will accept it.”

Harout reacting to practice offers from Vartan. He's told not to peak, then give a non-verbal cue if he likes or dislikes the trade. It's a game of peek-a-boo.

Does their method work? Well you be the judge. One "offer" that was proposed by Harout and “accepted” by  Vartan was Matthew Stafford, Joique Bell, Randall Cobb, Pierre Thomas, and Andre Johnson for Andrew Luck, Brandon Marshall,  Dez Bryant a 49% stake in Grabbers United. And free food for a month.

“It's simple really,” explained Vartan. “Stafford plus Joique equals Luck. Cobb is better than Marshall because he's hurt, so that's Grabber's advantage. Andre Johnson would then combine with Pierre Thomas to be more than Dez, so the 49% evens that out. Maybe we were a bit high on that. Maybe 30% is his stake. The free food is just a throw in.”

A trade that was conversely rejected was Forte for Dez Bryant straight-up.

“That was a trade that wasn't getting anyone anywhere,” explained Harout. “Not equal at all.”

When they can't decide on a whether or not they should accept or reject an offer, Hartan will bring in a third party to help break the tie. Usually, SheeShik, the teams official parrot will be used to help settle the score. SheeShik is a very intelligent bird and has been involved in orchestrating deals for the team for a long time. He was the one that suggested the Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas for Jamaal Charles trade last year. He has reportedly been clamoring for the team to dump Matthew Stafford because, as SheeShik puts it, "he's blockhead with a helmet on, raar."

If Hartan and SheeShik can't manage a trade before the weekend is over, Hartan will have to go into week 4 relying on a roster that put up an anemic 52 points last week. Their match-up with Hangin' & Bangin' could decide the fate of their season.

It may be time to put on the mask and go into Super Hartan mode.

Hartan when he goes into "Super" mode. They are reportedly 13-1-0 lifetime when dawning the Hartan mask.

Gyank Misspells Team Name on New Uniforms. Hello Vosqueereechee?

In a blunder that has brought about a little embarrassment to a team and its manager, Vosgee manager Mardig unveiled new team uniforms on Thursday afternoon in hopes of turning his 0-3 season around. The unveiling went off with out a hitch, except for one small problem. The uni's read: Vosqueereechee Gyank.. translation. The Golden Gay Life.

After the crowd broke out in laughter, Mardig quickly scolded his assistants for not checking the uniforms before they were unveiled. Apparently they arrived just before the press conference, and  his assistants thought it'd be great to have them opened real time.

“We obviously are going to correct the problem,” said Vosgee with beads of nervous sweat running down his face. “I have nothing against the gay community, but obviously, the Gay life is not the kind of Gyank we are talking about here.”

A few of the uniforms had already leaked out to the West hollywood area, and are being sold in San Francisco for up to 1,000 dollars.

Vosgee has already said that the uniforms that were sent to other cities for merchandising can stay and be sold as special “collectors items,” of which, all proceeds will come back to the team.

The Gay Union has already ordered a set of 10,000 to hand out during one if its parades in Northern Cali.

“What's next,” joked an audience member. “A team called Ass Grabbers?!” The imagination of some people.

Bdiddy Wants League to Start over after winless start. Accuses Jaj Cousteau as having "Illegal Waiver Program""

Owner of Bdiddy, Baret Chakarian filed a claim on Wednesday evening with the AFFL requesting the 2014 season should be restarted. The pie-in-the-sky request cites "rule changes that have lead to cheating on the waiver wire"  and that  "he may not make the playoffs and that's unacceptable" as reasons.

“It's unacceptable bro,” said Baret to a group of reporters. “My team is bad, but not this bad. This new waiver wire thing with money is rigged bro. I got Jaj out bidding me on everything. What's going on? When did he become the stock market. He knows something we all don't. I know it."

Jaj Cousteau owner Chris went on a spending spree this past week, snatching multiple free agents off the shelves. His bids were impeccable. His twenty-eight dollar bid on the Ravens RB Lorenzo Taliaferro was exactly one dollar over the highest bid (Cobra kai). That sort of precision is very difficult to do, and has prompted Diddy to cry foul.

"So how does Jaj bid exactly one dollar over the highest bidder if this is all done in secret?" co-manager Monkey Mike questioned. "He's not lucky. He's not. The only other answer is that he has a computer program that can see everyone's bids, like ones used in online poker rooms to cheat. He's cheating bro."

“I’ve made love to the waiver wire for years. My Jaj is all over it”

— Jaj Cousteau

Poker rooms have been known to have players that use illegal programs that can show what cards other players in the room are holding, giving the ultimate tip to raking in tons of cash. Could Jaj be using the same type of program?

According to a statement released by Cousteau, that idea is ludicrous. Citing his successful waiver wire history, Cousteau says that there is no one better at working the list of free agents better than he.

"I've made love to the waiver wire for years. My Jaj is all over it."

Jaj laughs his ass off at BDiddy accusing him of cheating the waiver wire.

BDiddy seems to be reaching at straws here, trying to overcompensate for an 0-3 start that has the prospects of the playoffs fading quickly to black. It is unlikely that the commissioner will take the request seriously, and restart the league.

Despite the slow start, the only team to turn things around in the history of the league after starting winless is BDiddy. It will take a lot of work, luck, and some help from the schedule, but the playoffs are not out of reach.

It is worth noting that Vegas has odds on AFFL teams to make the postseason, and Diddy is such a long shot that it's off the board.

History Lessons: What your Week 3 record says about your Playoff Chances, and Why, Win or Lose, BDiddy won't be out of it.

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So your team is 2-0 and sitting atop the division eh? Feeling pretty confident? You should be. Nothing feels better than starting a season off strong, except for finishing it that way.

Fantasy football is all about wins, and typically, teams will need to get seven in order to have a shot at the postseason. Starting a season with two wins puts teams at an extremely advantageous position, as they will need to win less than half their remaining games for a shot to keep playing in week fourteen. Teams that begin the season with two losses must win more than half moving forward in order to do the same. With bye weeks soon approaching, having an early winning streak can be a nice cushion to make up for some blunders in roster moves that could come as a result of byes crippling teams options. It's a huge advantage.

Just how big of an advantage is beginning the season with three wins as opposed to three losses? In this article, we will examine the history of the AFFL since 2008 and breakdown the odds that a team makes the playoffs according to their record after week three. We'll divide the teams into groups by what their potential record could be following week three and see how those teams have fared in that situation in the past.

The good news is that no team will be completely eliminated from playoff contention as a result of their week three record, but after looking at the charts below, they may be a little depressed.  BDiddy, Cobra, Awesomeness, Jaj, and Vosgee, this one's for you.

The Three Win, Zero Loss Club

Atomic Bomba, HBK Shant Michaels, Magnum Sev.i, Prime Time, Grabbers United

Everyone would love to be in this club. The teams that have started with two wins are sitting pretty. All the above teams look like legit contenders for the title, and if history has anything to say about it, if any of these teams goes 3-0, they will have better than a 71% chance of making the playoffs. Atomic Bomba, HBK, and Magnum all can be 3-0 after this week, however, Prime Time plays Grabbers, so one of those teams will be 2-1.

Since the 2008 season, there have been seven teams that have started off the season 3-0, and of those seven, five made the playoffs. Ironically, the two teams that failed to do so were Grabbers in 2009, and HBK in 2010. The only team of the group that has started 3-0 before is the Atomic Bomba. Of the five teams that made the postseason, all finished in the top four, with the majority having eight or nine wins. The high win totals across the board tells us that teams that begin the season with three wins are as good as their record claims, for the most part.

It's interesting to note that despite beginning the season with three wins, only once has a team finished as the #1 or #2 seed (Bomba '11). Also, starting the season three and zero doesn't mean that you can or will win it all. Of all the teams in the chart below, only one won the title that same  year (Bomba '11). A hot start does not guarantee championship.

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Focusing on the two teams that failed to make the postseason, we can see that they both finished in 7th place, quite possibly missing out on the playoffs because of tie breakers. So even the teams that missed out on playing week fourteen were in the hunt until the end.

We can also note that those failures occurred nearly four seasons ago, and there have been changes to the scoring system since then. The recent trend of a perfect three for three could be the new norm. We shall wait and see.

Should Bomba, HBK, Magnum, Prime Time or Grabbers get to three wins after this week, we can safely say that, by the numbers, three of those teams will certainly be playing week fourteen. Anything can happen (and usually does) so don't start counting your chickens before they hatch, but beginning 3-0 is a great place to be.

The Two Wins, One Loss Club

Hartan, Hangin' & Bangin' as well as above teams.

If you can't win three games, then two games would be the next best thing. The two win teams from the previous group fall into this category along with Hartan and Hangin' who come into week three with one win each. Starting two and one is still a positive for any squad. Heck, just being on the right side of five hundred should be celebrated in fantasy. Does being two and one significantly decrease your odds of making the postseason from the three win group? Let's take a look.

Historically speaking, there have been 32 teams that have started the season with two wins and one loss, and only 11 have failed to make the postseason. That is 65% success rate. When considering that a three win team will have a seventy percent chance to make the postseason, there is hardly a drop off in odds for this group.

Examining the list closer, we can see that the teams that failed to make the postseason after starting 2-1 include current 1-1 teams Hangin' ('08) and Hartan ('10). However, each made the playoffs on two other occasions after starting off with two wins.

The list also includes failures from teams in the potential three win group: Prime Time ('09), and Magnum ('11). 

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Examining recent trends, we can see that over the past two seasons, only three out of thirteen teams failed to make the postseason. That means 76% of the teams that started 2-1 over the past two years have made the playoffs.

If you can't be in the three and zero club, this is a great group to be in. With a 65% chance of a team making the playoffs after starting 2-1, there is no need to panic for any team that has two wins and a loss. While many teams have shown historically that they can ride a two win record to the top, we cannot ignore the history of those teams in this group that have failed to do so. Hartan, Hangin', Prime, and Magnum all have faced this scenario before. Whether they will again after week three remains to be seen.

The One win, Two Loss Club

Cobra Kai, BDiddy, Jaj Cousteau, Awesomeness, Vosgereechee Gyank, Hartan, Hangin' & Bangin'

Finding yourself on the wrong side of five hundred stinks. So close to even, yet also one game away from a huge hole. The first three weeks of the 2014 season have split the league into two halves; a group of two win teams and group of two loss teams, with only two teams representing the middle class (Hartan and Hangin') at one-and-one. 

Since 2008, twenty teams have started the season off with a one and two record. Of those twenty, only nine teams have turned things around and made the playoffs. That equates to a 45% chance that at team with two losses to start the season can climb out of the hole and make it to week fourteen. That is a twenty percent drop off from the above group. Quite significant.

We can find that numerous teams have been in this situation before, and from the above list, Awesomeness, Cobra, BDiddy and Jaj have all climbed out of it in the past. They can use that to keep their confidence high should they find themselves in the same hole again come week four. Awesomeness had perhaps the greatest turn around in AFFL history when he finished in 1st place after starting off 1-2, winning ten straight. Should he lose in week three, he'll be hoping for a similar finish.

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Of the nine teams that turned their season around to make the postseason, only twice has a team finished as one of the top two seeds during the regular season, both times by Awesomeness. The majority of the teams that began with two losses ended up finishing between fourth and sixth place. This tells us that while the playoffs are achievable, finishing with a bye is perhaps a little too far out of reach.

It's worth noting that for the past two seasons, only one of seven teams has made the playoffs after starting 1-2 (Hangin' '13). That's only a 15% success rate.

Still, having one win is far better than the alternative: Zero wins. At least the odds are still reasonable that you can have hope. Below you will see that entering week four without a win will present quite the conundrum.

The Zero Win, Three Loss Club

Cobra Kai, BDiddy, Vosgereechee Gyank, Jaj Cousteau, Awesomeness.

To say that this is a bad spot to be in is an understatement. Five teams find themselves with two losses after the first two weeks and on the verge of having the magnanimous task of doing something that has been done only once before. 

Since 2008, there have been twelve teams that have started the season with three straight losses, and only once has a team managed to make the playoffs after starting off that way.  That's less than a 10% chance. Yikes. Ironically, the team that managed to climb out of the three hole was BDiddy, and they find themselves once again in the same situation. Vosgee, Cobra, Gyank, and Jaj have all started 0-3 at some point in the past and failed to make the postseason. Not good.

What is even more concerning is that aside from BDiddy, no team finished higher than 8th place. Nine of the teams that started the season with three losses finished with a win total of less than five. That means that 75% of the above group of teams will finish the same way.

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Recent trends point to the fact that no team in the past three seasons has ever finished higher than 8th place after starting 0-3. Coupled with the recent trends of all other win teams previously mentioned in the article and we could conclude that the league has perhaps gotten more difficult and less forgiving on teams that start slowly. This could be due to shrewd managers who take all the talent off the waiver wire, the lack of available trades, or just bad luck.

The chart above paints a bleak picture for a team that is 0-3. Teams that start this way would not only have to hope that they reach the seven win plateau and have enough points to win any tiebreakers, they would have to get extremely lucky with the schedule and have the rest of the league beat up on each other to even allow for that opportunity to make the playoffs. Not fun.

How big of a week is week 3? Teams that start the season with two or three wins have a 65-70% chance of making the postseason, while those that manage to limp into week four with zero or one win will have no better than a 10-45% chance of playing in week 14. Recent trends paint an even bleaker picture, as only 15% of teams that started 1-2 and 0% of teams that started 0-3 have made the postseason over the past two years.

But this is fantasy football, where anything can happen and usually does. While statistics tell us the odds, they don't tell us about the AFFL karma and how it can change everything. If you don't believe that there is karma in fantasy football, consider this: Last season, there was a team in a fourteen team league that was in dead last, with the lowest points in the league, with a record of 1-5. A trade, some waiver wire pickups, and a whole heck of a lot of karma later, that team found themselves in the semi-finals. 

Anything is possible to those that believe.

Good luck in week three Amigos! May 0-3 stay far, far away.

AFFL Week 2: Facts on all Week 2 Match-ups

There is nothing like having games mean more than just a game.

In the AFFL, rivalries run deep, and history has given punishing lessons to many of the teams in the most brutal ways. Who can forget the Bomba game of '10, when Michael Vick ripped off 63 points to close a forty point gap versus HBK? Or perhaps last season, when Hangin' and Bangin' managed to pull off a Monday night miracle with a Jordy Nelson catch on the last play of the game versus Awesomeness. Fantasy football is indeed a cruel mistress.

So lets rehash the past and give this weeks match-ups a little sizzle. Something extra to play for. Pride is on the line in many of these games, but revenge can be a factor as well. Below are some interesting facts about the current match-ups for week 2. Hopefully they'll make Sunday mean a little more.

Atomic Bomba v Vosgereechee Gyank

Match-up Facts

• Bomba is 6-1 lifetime vs. Vosgee
• The last time Vosgee defeated Bomba was week 6 of 2008. 92.10 - 79.44
• In those 6 losses, Vosgee has only managed to be within ten points once (2011). All other losses have been by 20,30,or 40+ points.
• Bomba has averaged 139 points in games against Gyank
• Gyank has averaged 92 points in games against Bomba
• Gyank's highest total when playing Bomba was 123 pts
• Bomba highest total when playing Gyank is 161 pts.
• Last season, Bomba came off a loss to HBK to defeat Gyank and begin a six game winning streak to end the season.
• In 2009, Gyank finished the season winning 4 of 6 games, with a loss coming at the hands of Bomba. This loss was the reason Gyank failed to make the playoffs.

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HBK v Hartan

Match-up Facts

• Hartan has a 6-1 lifetime record vs HBK
• HBK ended a six year losing streak to Hartan last season, winning for the first time in the match-up week 9: 156.06-97.76
• In the six losses to Hartan, HBK has lost by nine points or less 4 times, with the closest loss coming in 2012 by .48 pts. (6,7,9,.48)
• Hartan has only blown out HBK once, by 53 points in 2008
• HBK's only win was a blow out of 59 pts.
• Hartan has averaged 117 points in games vs HBK, with a high game of 143 pts (2011)
• HBK has averaged 112 points in games vs Hartan, with a high game of 156 pts (2013)
• HBK's lowest score ever was against Hartan in 2008 (61 pts)
• In 2008, HBK won six of seven games during the season, with a lone loss coming against Hartan. In 2010, after starting the season with a four game win streak, a loss to Hartan week 5 sparked a four game losing streak that HBK could not recover from. In 2012, another three game win streak was snapped at the hands of Hartan.

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Cobra Kai v Magnum Sev.i

Match-up Facts

• Magnum has a 5-1 lifetime record vs Cobra Kai

• Cobra broke a five game losing streak vs Magnum last season when he defeated Sev.i week 13: 109..2-134.88

• Magnum's 5 wins have all been by 30 points or more, with the largest margin of victory being 41 points in 2012.

• Cobra's lone win was by a margin of 25 pts

• Magnum has averaged 131 points a game when playing Cobra, with the highest total being 166.62 points in 2011

• Cobra has averaged 104 points per game when playing Magnum, with a high of 134 points in 2013.

• Cobra has failed to clear 100 points in 4 of the six match-ups.

• In 2011, Magnum lost six of seven games, but managed to have his only win during that span be against Cobra.

• Cobra's loss to Magnum Sev.i in week 10 of the 2012 season was the reason he failed to make the playoffs, despite ending the season with a three game win streak.

• Magnum's loss to Cobra during week 13 of last season eliminated him from the playoffs. Had he won, he would have made the post-season.

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Jaj Cousteau v Grabbers United

Match-up Facts

• Jaj Cousteau has a perfect 5-0 lifetime record vs Grabbers
• Jaj has defeated Grabbers by an average of 25 points, with the closest margin of victory being 14 points in 2011
• Jaj has averaged 123 points per game when playing Grabbers, with a high of 127 points in 2009
• Grabbers has averaged 98 points per game when playing Jaj, with a high of 105 in 2011. He has only scored more than a hundred points twice.
• Jaj has twice bounced back from a loss the week before with a win against Grabbers
• Grabbers has lost to Jaj after winning the week before on three different occasions. During the 2010 season, Grabbers had won six of seven games, but a loss to Cousteau during week 8 sparked a three game losing streak and would lead to Grabbers missing the playoffs by one game.

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BDiddy v Hangin' & Bangin'

Match-up Facts:

• Hangin' leads the lifetime record vs. BDiddy 4-2
• One of Hangin's four playoff losses has come a the hands of Diddy
• Hangin's victories have come by an average margin of 14 points
• BDiddy's victories have come by an average margin of  5.6 points
• Two games have been decided by less than half a point. (.44 in '09, .38 in '12)
• Hangin' has averaged 111 points a game vs DIddy, with a high of 154 points in 2013
• BDiddy has averaged 104 points a game vs Hangin', with a high of 143 points in 2013
• In 2008, despite losing six of their last seven games, Hangin' celebrated week 8 with a victory over BDiddy
• Hangin' got their first win of the 2013 season week 2 versus BDiddy (De ja vu?)
• In 2009, BDiddy finished the season winning 3 of 4 games, but losing to Hangin' week 12. The loss placed them as the sixth seed where they would eventually lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Had they beat Hangin', they would have been the 4th seed and made it to the finals.
• In 2010, BDiddy's win over Hangin' week 11 was one of two must wins to make the playoffs.
• BDiddy's loss to Hangin' week 2 of 2013 set off a four game losing streak for the team

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Prime Time v Awesomeness

Match-up Facts

• Awesomeness has a lifetime record of 7-3 versus Prime Time
• The last time Prime Time defeated Awesomeness was week 10 of the 2011 season.
• Awesomeness has defeated Prime Time by an average margin of 23 points, with only one game having a difference of less than ten points (3 in '12). The highest margin of victory is 49 points in 2009.
• Prime Time has defeated Awesomeness by eight points twice, but holds the greatest margin of victory in the series with a 62 point blowout week 4 of the 2011 season.
• Prime Time's lowest point total ever in a game (58.96 pts) came versus Awesomeness during the 2013 season.
• Awesomeness has averaged 108 ppg in the series, with a high of 143 points in 2012
• Prime Time has averaged 98 ppg in the series, with a high of 153 points in 2011
• Prime Time has also failed to score 90 points in 5 of the 10 games.
• In 2010, Prime Time had a four game win streak snapped by Awesomeness week 9. The loss would force Prime Time to play Awesomeness in the second round of the playoffs, where he would be defeated again.
• In 2012, a loss to Awesomeness week 12 eliminated Prime Time from the playoffs.
• In 2013, Prime Time began the year winning 4 of 5 games, with a lone loss coming at the hands of Awesomeness.
• Awesomeness lost to Prime Time twice during the 2011 season. Winning one of those games would have gotten Awesomeness into the playoffs.

Strike First, Strike Hard, but Never Women. Cobra Kai Cuts Ray Rice, Releases Statement.

Cobra Kai's philosophy is "Strike first, Strike hard"... but never at women.

In light of the news released by AFFL news affiliate TMZ, Cobra Kai has officially released Ray Rice from the team just two days after acquiring him in a trade. Manager Sayyad Chakarian and co-manager Samual Chakarian (15 months old) have been applauded by the Commissioner for the move, as league rules prohibit Commissioner Lalazarian from forcing the release of a player without the teams consent. Below is the official statement from the current Champ.

From: Sayyad Chakarian

To: AFFL League.

Today at 11:26 AM

To Commissioner Lalazarian, Frank Samian and all AFFL Managers,

Team Cobra Kai prides itself on its cunning, ruthless, and a "take no prisoners" mindset when conducting it's fantasy football operations. This mentality, coupled with its keen sense for finding great waiver wire and trade opportunities has led it to AFFL Championship stardom in the past, and is the key to its future. It accepts all NFL players, without regard to what personal issues they may have - including a little "puff-puff-give" addiction, a DUI, (and even a little tax evasion really never hurt anyone).

It does, however, have its limits....

Cobra Kai has recently been privy to a video of the incident that Ray Rice was involved in with his wife, and is disgusted by its contents. In no way is the behavior of Ray Rice acceptable by the Cobra Kai organization. Our motto is "strike first, strike hard, no mercy," but that pertains only to the male population (for women it's actually "Yes first, Yes ma'am, show mercy"). And although, it condones sweep-the-leg and throw sand-in-eye tactics (ala Bloodsport) any day.... this "knock-a-bitch-out-cold" behavior is unacceptable (pardon the language) .

Cobra Kai respects females more so than you may expect from a dark-side organization. It relies heavily on the gender for motivation to excel at all costs as well as milk, of course (co-manager).

With that, Cobra Kai management has made a decision to DROP RAY RICE EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY. It will cut it's losses with the recent trade made to acquire him, and will continue to work hard to rebuild.

- Cobra Kai

"Knocking suckas (not females) out since '79"

PS. We announce our intent to put in a claim for Justin Forsett, so bid wisely..

AFFL Monday Night Live: Bomba, Grabbers, HBK Look to Hold on for Wins

After the slate of week 1 match-ups, a few remain in limbo. Prime Time, Hartan, Magnum all look to be set to record victories, while Bomba, Grabbers, and HBK enter Monday Night with a lead and hope to hold on for the victory. Here is a look at tonight's Monday Night Live Match-ups.

Atomic Bomba v Hangin' and Bangin

Score:

Bomba: 118.22

Hangin': 89.70

Players:

Bomba: Arizona Def

Hangin': Ryan Matthews & Nick Novak

Riding Matt Ryan's huge week 1 performance, the Bomba holds nearly a 30 point lead, heading into the MNF games. Hangin' & Bangin' hopes that Ryan Matthews and the Chargers light-up the scoreboard, dropping the Cardinal defense into the negative point total, while racking up FGs and scores for their Charger players. Should the Cardinals do absolutely nothing on defense, while at the same time allowing Matthews a few goal line scores, this could very well be a comeback that would rank as one of the best in Hangin's history. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that this could in fact happen being that the Cards defense has lost a lot of players on the Defensive side of the ball. Will it happen? That is left to be determined.

Prediction: Bomba holds on for a ten point victory.

HBK vs BDiddy

Score:

HBK: 105.64

BDiddy: 76.02

Players:

HBK: None

BDiddy: Keenan Allen

Is a big day for Keenan Allen on the horizon? BDiddy sure hopes so. Down nearly thirty points to HBK, Diddy will need Allen and the Chargers to air it out, and air it out often in order for him to complete an improbable win. The Cards are not nearly as strong on the defensive side of the football as they were in 2013, however, their corners are very strong. Peterson and Cromartie will be a tough duo to contend with for Allen. Either could limit his numbers. If the Chargers establish a ground game and produce a balanced attack, Allen could get loose for a few deep shots and really make things interesting. We know HBK won't be rooting for that to happen, even if he is a Charger fan.

Prediction: HBK holds on for a 7 point victory

Grabbers United vs Cobra Kai

Score:

Grabbers: 101.20

Cobra Kai: 85.94

Players:

Grabbers: Golden Tate

Cobra Kai: Michael Floyd, Ruben Randle, Det. Defense

The most interesting match-up on the MNF slate features Grabbers up on the Cobra Kai by fifteen points and both teams having players in both MNF games. Grabbers is hoping that Golden Tate can out duel Cobra's duo of Randle and Det defense. Most expect Tate to have a great game, as Megatron will leave him one-on-on opportunities galore. On the flip side, Randle is a redzone threat, and will be called upon when the Giants get in close. Cobra will have to deal with the Detriot defense losing points for ever Giant score, so it is very likely they go into the second MNF game still down in points. At that point, Michael Floyd will need to have himself a decent evening to pull off the victory. Grabbers should be on his fifth glass of whiskey by then.

Prediction: Cobra Kai nicks out a victory on a late Michael Floyd score.

AFFL Draft Grades: Perception vs Reality

Perception affecting reality. That is what the fantasy draft is all about. Case and point: Zac Stacy. Reports by beat writers have praised Benny Cunningham as the "it" guy in the Rams backfield, and fantasy owners panicked when Cunningham was given the starting nod during the third preseason game. Yet Stacy still sits atop the Rams depth chart and coming off a breakout season. What are we to make of all this? Absolutely nothing.

And that is the case with most of the preseason. Too many managers put too much emphasis on the preseason. For example, the 49ers were outscored in 2011's preseason 51-10. They went on to go 13-3 and make it to the NFC championship. Last year, Zack Sudfield was a monster in the preseason. He was cut by week 2. I can do this for days.

Managers will use the preseason to nit pick a player or offense to death in order to rationalize their opinion on a guy. Anything from a player being an injury risk, to not looking good, to concerns about the team offense as a whole, will all be used to move players up and down their draft boards. Getting into the semantics of why you should or shouldn't take a player  is meaningless. If you like a guy, you'll find reasons to defend taking him. If you don't, you'll find those as well. It is how it is.

Smart managers, however, will take advantage of the perception of players and find values where they can. Great managers will use those picks to help maximize their rosters potential.  Everyone is hyping up Emmanuel Sanders? That's great. Now I can get Terrence Williams a round later. Nobody thinks Oakland is going to have a good offense? Perfect, I'll snag MJD two rounds later. Knowing which smoke screens to avoid and which ones to go after can make your draft a huge success.

Which leads us to evaluating the 2014 AFFL Draft. It's quite impossible to give an accurate assessment of the draft right now, as we are still in full on "perception" mode. Reality will be coming in a few days. Until then, we can evaluate the choices that managers made to maximize their teams potential and mitigate risk where they could. Every player has both risk and reward attached to them, and no roster will be without a soft spot. Good managers alleviate some of the potential concerns they may face during the season by creating depth at positions they see potential problems. Did you draft deep enough at a position to offset any risk of a player being a bust, or getting injured if he's injury prone? Did you draft risky players for potential upside? Do you have players that could be starters come mid-season? It's a tough job, but teams that cover their butts in these areas usually end up playing all the way through week 16.

So with all that said, lets look at the draft and see who truly maximized their rosters to the fullest. This isn't to say that a team is bad or good, but rather whether or not the draft strategy was sound and there is a train of logic that they executed and stayed true to. Again, this is purely about how a manager drafted given the situation they were in and the choices they made.

In essence, let's find out who brought the draft lumber, stayed limber, or just limped into the 2014 season.

Bringing the Lumber

Vosgereechee Gyank

Best picks: Graham (1) Colston (7) Ridley (9), Ivory (13)

Worst: Seattle Def (8), Austin (11)

There is a reason that Vosgee is at the top of the list (yes, I'm just as shocked as you) and it's because of the circumstances he found himself in. With no keepers to speak of, he was at a severe disadvantage when entering the draft. While most teams had already gained an upper hand on the Gyank with late round keepers, he would have to pull off a solid draft in order to be able to stay competitive. Dare we say he did.

Getting a top TE and QB in the first two rounds is nice, but to do so would leave you vulnerable at the other positions, namely RB. What makes Gyank's draft come together is the not so sexy pick of Frank Gore. Getting Bush as an RB1 could work out. He'll have some big games. But by taking Gore, he gives himself stability at the position. And he wasn't done. Taking Ridley and Ivory later adds some upside, further strengthening his roster. Lastly, he didn't suffer too much at the WR spots, targeting an upside pick with DJax, but also getting two possession receivers in Maclin and Colston. The blend of that receiver trio should be good enough weekly to help alleviate a Djax goose egg. The roster is a great blend of balanced players and upside, as well as top flight studs in Graham and Rodgers. Very nice work.

Grade: A-

Hartan

Best Picks: Stafford (4), P. Thomas (5), Joique (K), Hawkins (13)

Worst Picks: Greene (12)

If you want to know how to draft according to your keepers, look no further than Hartan. Having Forte and Joique solidified on their roster, team two-face would have been wise to ignore the Rb position for the most part and focus on the others. That is exactly what they did. They took one RB in their first 8 picks, and bombarded the wide receiver position throughout. With the luxury of not having to focus on RB, Hartan also broke from a tempting strategy to wait on QB and took Stafford early. Adding Vernon Davis in the mid-rounds gave the team strength at all major positions (although we're not as excited for Davis this year). It's exactly how they should have approached the draft.

They weren't perfect however, taking Shonn Greene as your fifth RB late seems a waste, especially when he will probably never be used. However, they stayed true to drafting upside WRs until the end. With a total of seven on the roster, they are not only deep at the position they lacked coming into the draft, but also should have a few gems emerge from the pile in the process. Nicely done.

Grade: A-

Jaj Cousteau

Best Picks:: J. Charles (1), Brown (k), Thomas (k) T. WIlliams (7), Boykin (11)

Worst Picks: Chris Johnson (4)

Jaj began with a great situation and almost screwed it up. Almost. We were worried that once Chris Johnson's name came up in the fourth round that it would be the beginning of a list of players that were wrong for this team. Fortunately, Cousteau caught himself slippin' and righted the ship.

Going into the fourth round with arguably the best three players on any roster, Cousteau should have opted to continue to build with high upside players, like a Cordelle Patterson for example, maximizing the safety net that Jamaal Charles, Demeriyus Thomas and Antonio Brown give him. Instead, investing in a running back in a committee on a bad offense who gives up goal line chances doesn't illicit excitement. You have already lessened the risk of a bust on a risky WR with Thomas and Brown. Take the plunge. Especially if you are going to take a player like Danny Woodhead in the 8th round. Wouldn't expect a huge drop-off from Johnson to Woodhead in your RB2 spot.

But that seems to be the only glaring error that Jaj made. You can argue whether or not Jordan Reed should have been taken over Jordan Cameron, but that is just personal preference. Nabbing Terrence Williams, Foles, Reed, and Charles's handcuff, Cousteau did enough to build on an already strong keeper core. Tis' excellent.

Grade: A-

BDiddy

Best Picks: Patterson (4), Mike Wallace (6), Keenan Allen (k), Bradshaw (12)

Worst Picks: Ray Rice (5), Josh Gordon (15)

It seems like every year this time we have good things to say about Diddy's draft. So far, he hasn't disappointed. Coming into the draft with only Keenan Allen as a keeper and a severely depleted RB position pool to draft from, Diddy would be taking a huge risk avoiding the position as their first pick. Luckily, the board fell their way with Martin falling in their lap in the second round. While Martin could be a potential bust candidate, he gives Diddy viable RB1 potential. Disaster avoided. Where Diddy did very well for himself was the selection of Gerhart in the third. The RB duo of Martin and Gerhart should be strong enough to remain competitive week to week.

They also wisely took a risk/reward player in Patterson in the 4th round. That's what we like to see. Maximizing the safety net value of Keenan Allen. Mike Wallace is a nice third option as well. Two of those three wide-outs should be solid on a weekly basis.

We don't like the Ray Rice pick in the fifth round, as it seemed forced. Why not just wait until later and nab a guy like Steven Jackson, MJD, or even an upside RB in Jeremy Hill to be your #3? If you are going to take an RB, why not a guy like Tate? Or go WR and take E. Sanders? Rice has a lot of downside associated with him. There were better options available at the time, and we think this was a miss.

That said, the line-up has plenty of opportunity to grow, with guys like Justin Hunter and Ahmad Bradshaw stashed for later in the season. Can't do much better than Pitta in the mid rounds. We like what we see.

Grade: A-

Staying Limber

HBK Shant Michaels

Best Picks: Vereen (3), Welker (8), Romo (9),

Worst Picks: Ty Hilton (4), Tate (5)

It wasn't a perfect draft, but HBK did nice job building on two great keepers. When you have Alshon Jeffery for a sixth rounder, and Lacy for a second, you have freedom to do anything you like in the early rounds. With that freedom comes risk in that you could over indulge in one position group, leaving another one waning thin. HBK struck a nice balance and formulated a best of both worlds strategy. Depth at every position, and lots of upside at WR makes the team very well rounded.

However, the draft is not without its faults. We don't back TY Hilton over a guy like Victor Cruz, but that is just a matter of personal preference. The bigger point comes on the Tate selection. A little better planning could have yielded a pick of Cameron in that round, and perhaps a guy like MJD in round 8. Or why not go for the upside of an Emmanual Sanders? Tate comes with a history of injuries, and having someone like that as a third RB over a player that could be your starter at TE may not have been the best move to maximize the roster. We'll see how it plays out.

Welker was a nice value pick and could be a steal if he stays healthy. Benjamiin offers great potential too.

Grade: B+

Atomic Bomba

Best picks: Cruz (4), Matt Ryan (7), Stacy (k), MJD (9)

Worst Picks: Hyde (6 instead of 7th), RG3 (10th)

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The Bomba came into the AFFL Draft with perhaps the best valued keeper in Zac Stacy, and looked to add to that. Having a potential borderline RB1/2 in the 8th round means that the Bomba would have been wise to target the other positions early in the draft. For the most part, he did, building perhaps the deepest WR core in the league with four of his first five picks. Arian Foster comes with a ton of risk, however, with huge upside. If Bomba believes in Stacy, then Foster is a great choice, as he already has mitigate the risk of a bust with an 8th round keeper. Handcuffing Grimes in the 12th further alleviates the potential injury that could occur.

Value was also found in a number of picks. Cruz in the fourth could be a steal, as could MJD in the 9th round. The roster has upside with Sanders, Hyde and Wheaton as well. Not much of an issue with those picks.

Two selections stand out as questionable. The first was an admitted mistake on Bomba's part in taking Hyde in the 6th round and not 7th. Those errors shouldn't happen to a veteran drafter as this one. While it won't make a difference this year, but will if he is kept. The seond was the questionable selection of Rg3 in the 10th. Yes the upside is there, but does Bomba need another QB when he has Ryan? Why not an upside TE like Kelce?

All-in-all, the Atomic one didn't do anything to hurt his championship chances, only help it.

Grade: B+

Prime Time

Best Picks: Ellington (2), Bell (k), Olson (8), A. Williams (11)

Worst Picks: Steven Jackson (6), Jennings (3)

We don't think Ara did anything that severely hurt his teams chances at winning it all this year. In fact, we believe that Prime Time is one of the stronger teams in the league. There is depth at the RB position galore, and Manning can help offset any potential weekly bust plays. Things look good.

Getting Ellington in the second round was great value and could be a huge boon for Prime. Concerns about Levon Bell not getting goal line carries are a bit over blown in our opinion, but Prime did a good job alleviating those concerns. Jennings gives ample depth to the position, and Prime looks to have returned to his RB hoarding ways.

The problem area is the WR position. If this is about mitigating risk in an area group, than Prime may have over compensated for the RB spot while sacrificing his WRs. Fitz should be fine, and perhaps Cooks will come on, but we wonder what the line-up would have looked like if a WR was drafted instead of Jennings. Especially if you are going to take Steven Jackson in the 6th round, which was not only early, but solely done to try and screw the Atomic Bomba. (the Bomba is impervious to these types of tactics).  As it turns out, he missed on Terrence Williams at that pick, another player that would have helped his team immensely.

We shudder to think how good the team had looked had Ara stuck to his guns and drafted for his team and not against someone elses. Regardless, it's a strong squad that will need to grow into its potential.

Grade: B-

Hangin' and Bangin'

Best picks: Nelson (k), Torry Smith (4), Jermey Hill (9), Stewart (10)

Worst Picks: White (2), Newton (8)

One of two teams that drafted across the world, Hangin' & Bangin' entered the 2014 draft with Lynch and Nelson as their keepers. With a player from each major position as a keeper,  Bangin' could opt to go a few different ways in their draft strategy. The end result is a balanced lineup that has some depth and upside on the bench.

The trio of Nelson, Smith and White should be very solid and produce consistent numbers each week. Nelson has a shot at producing at a top five level, something Bangin' hasn't had on their lineup in a long time.  Along with Decker, the position is deep, and we can't fault the squad for drafting this way.

While the team seems to be solid at the WR core, we don't know what to make of the RB situation. Matthews is a big question mark, as are the other two Rbs, Hill and Stewart. While things may pan out for the team, the formation of the RB core has us questioning the White pick in the second round. Going White over Ellington was not wise, as having Ellington on the roster would have pushed Matthews to an RB3, a much more comfortable proposition. Torry and Jordy would have been fine as a WR duo.

Cam Newton being selected over the likes of Tony Romo and other Qbs that late is peculiar. If you waited that long, might as well wait a little more and just go all in with a match-up play like Rivers/Big Ben.

Should Hill and Stewart grow into potential weekly players, and Decker comes into form, Hangin should can be a contender.

Grade: B-

Magnum Sev.i

Best picks: Megatron (k), Ball (k), Crabtree (4), Cutler (8), Manziel (16)

Worst picks: Richardson (6), Sproles (7), Deangelo (9)

The Sev.i was placed in a precarious position, as one co-manager was left to draft on his own while the other was probably passed out on a curb in the red light district in Amsterdam. Go figure. Despite the Drafting handicap, Magnum managed himself well, drafting a fairly balanced roster with some nice value picks in the mid-rounds.

Having Megatron and Ball as keepers gave the team a very nice base to build from. With the two main positions covered they were free to explore taking top guys at others. Julius Thomas fit that bill in the second. Crabtree has WR1 upside, and love the value of getting him in the fourth. Julian Edelman should be a very solid #3 receiver and thus rounds out a very strong WR core. This area will not be a weakness for the Sev.i. Nice work here.

The running back situation is a bit more cloudy. While Ball should perform well as an RB1, we question the picks of Richardson and Sproles as the #2 and #3 Rbs on the roster. Neither evoke much excitement as picks. Taking Richardson without taking Bradshaw was also a mistake, as the latter could end up with the feature back role by the end of the year. If that were to happen, Sev.i would be razor thin at the Rb spots. Deangelo is a nice back, but not one that will keep the position afloat. We don't consider Mcfadden much of a value either.

Aside from the Rb position, all other areas look strong, and should be very competitive. Cutler was an exceptional value in the 8th round, and Sev.i made a lot of his "draft money" back with that pick. He could very well be a top five Qb this year.

Grade: B-

Looking Limp

Grabbers United

Best Picks: Dez (1), Cameron (6), Golden Tate (7), Ingram (9)

Worst Picks: Luck (5)

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately. We love Andrew Luck. Getting him in the fifth round is absolutely fine value. It's great. However, sometimes, no matter how much you want a guy, you may find yourself in a situation where you just cant take him, because you are in dire need of other positions. That is exactly the case here. Grabbers simply could not afford to take a Qb this early after keeping a TE and selecting two Wrs. We have no issue with the first three picks, as all are exceptional. Nice job there. But the selection of Luck set the rest of the roster in a tail spin, one that was hard to recover from.

Nabbing Luck that early, forced Grabbers to wait an entire 14 more picks until he could finally take his first RB in the 5th round. That was too long. With depth at the Qb position, waiting on the Qb would have been  the right strategy. Ending up with Romo in the 8th round, while getting a Ben Tate, Pierre Thomas, or other back in the fourth would have made the Rb core stronger without losing much at the Qb position. Sankey may work out to be a functional RB2, but on paper, position group is thin at the top.

The other questionable move was the selection of Cameron. Again, the value was there, but with Gronk already in place, and lots of great WRs and RBs available, this was an unnecessary pick.

While they missed early in the draft, Grabbers did fine to at least rectify a bad situation. Ingram and Pierce are great depth Rbs that could perform like weekly RB2s. Tate was also a bargain at his 7th round choice. The Wrs are looking strong.

In the end, the Grabbers is left with a roster that is strong at all major positions, aside from RB. If one of his Rbs should become an RB1, he will be very strong. That is what he has to be hoping for.

Grade: C

Awesomeness

Best Picks: AP (2), Tom Brady (6), Jackson (7), Moreno (9)

Worst Picks: Spiller (3), Garcon (4), Wright (5)

Awesomeness found his draft strategy handed to him on a silver platter early with the pick of AP at two. Once  AP was in hand to complement Gio, it should have been quite obvious how Awosmeness' draft should go: Heavy WR. While he did lean on the WRs through the early rounds, the pick of Spiller in the third completely through the plan off course. We don't like the pick. Already strong at the RB spot, selecting a timeshare back on a bad offense as your third selection isn't exciting and doesn't complement the roster well. Following that pick, Garcon was selected, another WR that is in a group of others on a team that could have offensive problems with a Qb. Why not go elsewhere? Take some risk. Get some upside. As opposed to those picks, what would the roster look like with say, Patterson and Crabtree? Or perhaps Stafford and Patterson/Crabtree? We think a lot better.  Wright/Garcon/Wayne have very little upside between the three of them, and the group as a whole seems more safe than explosive. We'd expect morIe from Awesomeness.

We can't fault the quarterback selection of Tom Brady in the 6th. With Gronkowski back, Brady should have a bounce back year. Nice value for a potential top 5 qb that late.

Taking Fred Jackson in the 7th further emphasizes why the Spiller pick seems a waste.We love the selection of Jackson that late, and had the strategy been planned, may have been better to just take Fred jax there, and use the Spiller pick elsewhere.  Moreno has upside to take over RB duties in Mia, and is nice value that late. Good work there.

Overall, the Awesomeness draft seems to be a smorgasbord of players that have more question marks than answers. We don't know what to make of this team, but don't see many areas where the squad will dominate any one position group.

Grade: C

 

Cobra Kai

Best Picks: McCoy (k), Murray (k), Floyd (4), Rudolph (6), Lattimer (13)

Worst Picks: Morris (3), Ertz (7), Harvin (5)

It's unusual to say this about the defending champion, but, despite having two great keepers, we feel Cobra managed to make his team worse after the draft. With two of the best keepers in the league, the Kai was set to make his team nearly unstoppable. Instead, we think that he left a lot to be desired with some peculiar decisions.

While getting the best available player on the board is a good strategy, sometimes those players aren't the best for your team. With two strong Rbs, Kai would have been wise to go heavy on the WRs early, and forgo the temptation of building on RBs. Morris is a nice player, but in a PPR league, his value is less. With Andre Johnson, Vjax, and other Wrs still available, we question the decision to go RB here, especially with the WRs that were selected after.

Ffloyd and Harvin could provide immense upside as a duo, but both come with huge risk. Relying on Floyd as WR1 is a leap of faith, and planning on Harvin to play 16 games and produce at high levels is a greater leap of faith. Without building depth at the WR position, Kai leaves himself extremely vulnerable when the bye weeks hit. Lattimer could be a great value play, as could Randle. But the unit as a whole doesn't excite much, and has immense downside associated with it.

Which leads to the peculiar selection of two tight ends in the mid rounds. With an oft injured Harvin as a number two wide-out, players like Colston, Terrance Williams, or Golden Tate would have strengthened the position nicely. We love the Rudolph pick, but can't sign off taking Ertz with all those WRs on the board. That was a huge mistake, as evidence of Cobra vehemently already to trade one during and after the draft.

Lastly, Russell Wilson is a nice value pick that late, as is Palmer, but neither look to have the umpf that you would hope from your Qb spot. Taking a Matt Ryan or Cutler instead of the tight ends would have been much more advisable.

In the end, the line-up has areas of strengths, with a lot of question marks associated with it. Could it all work out? Sure. But on paper, Cobra could have done a much better job maximizing on two great keepers. There were more misses than hits.

Grade: D+

Cobra Kai buys pet Cobra to distance further from Miyagi Brand

Cobra Kai isn't Miyagi, and he wants to make sure that you know it.  As of early Wednesday Morning, Sayyad is the proud owner of a 6 foot long cobra named Shorty. The cold-blooded reptile is part of the new branding campaign unleashed by team Cobra Kai to solidify his bad boy image and further distance himself from his old title as Miyagi.

"Cold-blooded. That's what 2014 is about for the Kai. We've got one championship under our belt., now we're looking to strike for more."

The yellow backed Shorty is kept in a large glass aquarium. The glass walls of the snake's dojo are lined with logos of the various AFFL teams for the snake to strike at and maim.  During feeding time, Shorty is fed his usual meal of mice, but with a twist: Sayyad plans to have each opponent he faces that week tattooed onto the rodent that he gives his snake.

“When you’ve tasted the venom of defeat, only then can you become immune to its effects”

— Sayyad Chakarian

After becoming the first non-Lalazarian team to win the AFFL title, Sayyad has cranked it up a notch in the jinx department. Most teams would opt to get creative anyway they could, but feeding snakes rodents marked with the opponent you face is uncharted territories. If Chakarian wins back-to-back titles you may see an uptick in Cobra purchases by other managers in the league. Should he fail to make the playoffs however, the question will be, was it the Snake or the team?