Analyzing the 2013 AFFL Draft: Draft Strategies that Win.
Raffi Lalazarian
Right now, everyone in the AFFL is preparing for their 2014 fantasy football draft. Spread sheets are being made. Mock drafts performed. Numbers crunched. Information absorbed. When it's all said and done, twelve managers will enter the August 29th draft with a list of studs, sleepers and players to avoid in hopes of coming out with the best 16 players possible. Unfortunately, many will fail, but won't know it until around week four of the football season when their fantasy team is already in the fantasy toilet about to get fantasy flushed. We've all been there, and we will all be there again very soon.
The draft is a cruel beast. You prepare over a month and even though you know your stuff, you look back to it around the middle of September cursing out every expert that told you to take that sleeper WR in the middle-rounds. You swear you will never listen to Brad Evans again, and guarantee that next year will be different. You promise to "change things up," but inevitably fall back on your old habits year in and year out. It's tough to change instincts that are essentially embedded in a managers personality. Only by looking back at our failures can we hopefully make the corrections needed in the future. A fantasy future that is inevitably filled with frustration and "eff this shit."
Before we go forward, let's take a look back. Last years draft can offer managers a lot of helpful hints as to which draft strategies to use and avoid. We know that the draft is not only about which players you pick, but also where you pick them. Getting a player that exceeds his draft spot and finishes season near the top of his position in points is the name of the game. It really is that simple.
Knowing your league managers and how they draft plays a huge part too. Like playing poker, you should know your opponents. You should know which draft strategy they prefer most often. Heavy on RBs. Heavy on WRs. Which players do they target? More often than not, each manager has their "type of player" they target, and will continuously draft those players year after year. The more you know, the better off you'll be.
While knowing your opponents is key, we won't be doing much of that here. Instead, we'll focus on the players taken, where they were taken, and more importantly, what positions seemed to dictate the teams success. This is not the end-all-say-all for being successful of course. In-season management, trades, injuries, free agent pick-ups, these all play a huge role in winning. But a great draft gives a team a leg up on everyone else. The better players you have, the more of a chance you will succeed.
Let's begin by analyzing the draft positions of the teams that were successful. Below is an image of the 2013 draft with the playoff teams highlighted in orange and the non-playoff teams highlighted in grey.
From the above graphic you'll notice that three of the teams that made the playoffs drafted in the middle of the draft; spots five, six, and eight. Many fantasy football draft analysts claim that teams that are most successful drafted in the middle rounds, and this backs that point up. Prime Time, Hangin', and Bomba all made it to the post-season, with Bomba reaching the finals. We will keep these teams in mind as we go through the draft and take a look at how they did. You would assume that these teams did something right that helped them gain entrance into the post-season. Looking at what they did right can help form a proper draft strategy for those teams that haven't been able to capitalize on draft success in years past.
Let's begin by examining the quarterback position to see if there is anything worthy to note.
Quarterbacks
Everyone knows having a stud QB means everything. In fact, of the teams that made the playoffs, all but two of them had a quarterback that finished in the top five. Having a top quarterback is crucial, and accounts for more than half a teams chances of making the post season. But examining the drafting of those quarterbacks tells us quite a different story. Take a look at the chart below.
The above chart highlights the quarterbacks and where they were taken. A green highlight denotes that the quarterback finished in the top five. A yellow means they exceeded their draft position and finished in the top ten. A red highlight means that they weren't worth the pick where taken, finishing below their draft status, or not being much of a factor.
Of the six playoff teams that had top five quarterbacks, only two were drafted in the first two rounds (Manning & Brees). The others, Stafford, Rivers, and Dalton were all drafted in the sixth round or later, and after the 14th round in Rivers and Dalton's case. Adding to that we see Tony Romo, Luck, Big Ben, Wilson, Newton, all finished in the top ten, with Romo leading Bomba to the finals. Granted, Aaron Rodgers will more often than not always finish in the top five, so Sev.i did get screwed there, but injuries or not, this is about whether the pick was worth it. Obviously, last season, Rodgers didn't warrant a 2nd round pick.
Conversely, looking at the chart, notice how many teams missed on quarterbacks. These picks could have been used on other positions and garnished a much better return on investment. Had a team like Jaj not reached on Kapernick and waited a few rounds, he could have bolstered his team up significantly. Prime Time whiffed on his draft strategy of taking two Qbs and trading one, but lucky for him, one of those Qbs was Peyton Manning. What is interesting to note is that Hangin' and Bangin' had two duds for their Qb, yet still made the playoffs. For the most part, teams that gambled at the QB position early in the draft and missed (Sev.i, Jaj) were hurt a lot worse than teams that missed at the QB position later in the draft (Hangin', Hartan). If you go QB early, it has to be a winner, or else your season can sink fast.
HBK nailed his QBs, selecting two top five quarterbacks. He immediately gave himself a leg up on the league and had a bargaining chip at his disposal. Three non-playoff teams did well too, Awesomeness, BDiddy, and Vosgee, getting great value for the Qbs they took in the mid-rounds. BDiddy especially nailed it with Dalton in the late rounds. Since they didn't make the playoffs, it could be assumed that either these teams managed their draft poorly, or they faltered at other positions. In BDiddy's case, he ended up trading Dalton before the season even started, a move that I'm sure he would have loved to have back.
So what do gain from this? Well, we can note that yes, in order to make the playoffs, you need a top QB. The chart tells us that of the quarterbacks finishing in the top ten, eight were drafted rounds 4 or later, with three available in the fourteenth round and on. Yes you need a good quarterback, but you don't necessarily need to get one in the early rounds. Waiting on a Quarterback is more often than not a wise choice, as there is plenty of value in the mid to late rounds. And if you do go QB early, you better hit on that pick. A dud on a quarterback in the early rounds is far more likely to crush a teams chances.
Running Backs
Running backs have always been the golden geese of fantasy. Having a stud RB and RB depth is always a key to getting your team on the winning side of things. However, the chart tells a very interesting story in regards to the position. Notice that most of the RBs that were hits according to their draft spot were in the early to mid rounds. All the RBs that finished in the top ten were drafted in rounds 1-4. Yellow highlighted RBs exceeded their draft position and ended somewhere in the top 25. While there was value to be found late with Zac Stacy and Knowshon Moreno, the majority of RBs that exceeded their draft position were also in the top half of the draft.
Looking at the playoff teams, all had a stud RB on their team. In fact, most had two RBs that exceeded draft position. HBK hit a home run, drafting both AP and Lacy in the first three rounds. Hartan, and Bomba each had a stud Rb on their team along with value mid and late which was crucial to the teams success. Bomba's case was particularly interesting being that his first round RB was a bust, showing that as long as you have one great RB on your team, you'll be okay. Hangin' illustrated that point. His lone RB was Lynch, whom carried his team at the position.
Two teams that fail to follow the rules in this case are Cobra and Prime. They both had mid-round value with a few running backs, but more often then not, their RBs failed across the board. In Prime Time's case, he had a first round bust in Ray Rice and failed to draft a significant RB in the first eight rounds. Both teams ended up making the playoffs due to a little movement later in the year. Le'von bell eventually came on and became solid play, and Cobra ended up trading for Jamaal Charles, Murray and McCoy. This further exemplifies the fact that you need a stud Rb. At least one. Half-decent RBs, won't do.
While waiting on a quarterback is fine and dandy, waiting on an RB could be costly, unless you hit it big. There aren't many RBs late that will turn into RB1s to carry your team. You'd be wise to at least get one that is by the mid-rounds, or else you the odds will be against you. Of course, the rate of injury at the position affects this group more than any other. Nabbing handcuffs and waiting out some of the time-shares that teams use could be a wise strategy. Many teams that do that could find their own Zac Stacy and hit pay dirt. But in order to compete, you need to be solid at the RB position, and from the data, it's better to be safe than sorry. Get one the sooner the better.
Wide Receivers
With the NFL becoming more of a passing league, there has been a glut of talent infused into the WR position group. In years past, there were far less teams that could support two stud WR's on the same team. That is no longer the case. Many teams have multiple WRs that are top 25 and are worthy of selecting to lead any teams WR core.
The chart above tells that story. While top ten Running backs were situated mostly in the first few rounds, the Wide Receivers are scattered about. Only four of the top ten receivers were drafted in the first two rounds. The other six were drafted in rounds 3-9. The yellow highlighted receivers, those that finished in the top 25, can also be found in abundance in those rounds. The chart shows that while missing on RBs early could be deadly, missing on a WR may not be as bad. There is much value to be had in the mid-round wide outs.
Each of the playoff teams had at least one stud, and in most cases two, with the exception of Hartan and Prime Time. Bomba drafting Gordon and Green gave him a huge advantage on a week-to-week basis, with two receivers in the top ten at the position. Cobra and Hangin' each had one of their own, and in Hangin's case, was a prime factor in the team making the postseason.
The two exceptions are Hartan and Prime Time. We can deduce by now that Peyton Manning and in-season management/easy schedule seemed to be the primary factors in Prime TIme's playoff birth. Hartan had great picks at other positions, so his lack of WR hits were made up for at other spots.
No team drafted WR's better than Jaj. Four of his WRs exceeded their draft spots and two finished in the top ten. We can assume his failure to make the post-season had more to do with his reach on QB than at the RB/WR positions.
Of the three main position groups, the wide receivers seem to be the most consistent, showcasing that there is value to be had all over the draft. The mid-rounds are prime fishing spots when looking to hook a top notch receiver relative to his draft spot. If it doesn't work out, it won't be the end of the world. There are plenty still swimming later in the draft.
Tight Ends
Drafting tight ends is perhaps the most difficult. Jimmy Graham is the leader of the pack and there is a very large gap between him and the second tier. While the position doesn't have much to offer in regards to depth, the value of a tight end can be found mostly in the mid-to-late rounds. If you aren't going to get Graham, you're better off waiting.
Last years draft shows us that of the tight ends that finished top 5 at the position, three were drafted between rounds 4-10. (Julius Thomas was not drafted). What is more important to note is that the teams that missed on a tight end in the mid-rounds really did themselves a disservice. Vosgee and Grabbers each got zero value for their tight ends, with Grabbers using a fifth round pick on Gronk.
The yellow highlighted players are those that finished in the top ten, and as you can see, there are plenty to be found late. With such a disparity between the top tier and mid tier at the position, teams are much better off trying to find a Tight end later in the draft than risking a pick on one in the early rounds.
Putting it All Together
So after collecting all the data from the various positions we can now assemble a master copy of what the draft looked like from a value stand point for all positions during last years AFFL draft and assess which teams truly scored big. We know from the charts above that its better to wait on a Qb, not wait on an RB, and look for WRs in the mid-rounds. More often than not, those strategies will produce the best value draft for a manager.
Below is a chart that combines the previous four. Defenses and kickers are greyed out, unless they were drafted in the mid-rounds. No defense last season was worth a mid-round pick in relation to the position.
Okay, that's a lot of color. What does it tell us? Well, it tells us that there are a bunch of teams that started off the season with a significant advantage on everyone else and either capitalized on it or squandered their chances. Conversely, Prime Time and Hangin' didn't exactly have stellar drafts in regards to value, but benefited from either a soft schedule or great management. Let's breakdown each teams draft starting with HBK at pick one.
HBK
It's quite obvious why HBK made the postseason, he had 5 players that finished at the top of their positions. Rivers in the 16th was eventually dropped, but Stafford was good enough. He followed protocol for the most part, hitting on Rbs early, and waiting on Qbs mid-to-late. The team was very strong. His draft was an all or nothing affair, seemingly missing on every other pick except for the five he nailed. That was good enough.
Grabbers United
With only two players that exceeded their draft value, Grabbers didn't have enough to start the season to be a contender. He may need to look at which positions he targeted at what spot and change the strategy. He can start with targeting a quarterback sooner than the last four rounds.
Vosgereechee Gyank
Only three picks seemed to exceed their draft value. That won't cut it, not when your first two picks are dud Rbs. You need someone in the top 5/10 at the position if that happens. Targeting WR's mid-rounds was the correct move, but he just picked the wrong RBs early, and nothing great late. That turned out to be the death knell.
Jaj Cousteau
If there is a non-playoff team that has a gripe, it should be Jaj. His draft was solid. He had value at all positions, except perhaps the one that mattered most, QB. We mentioned this before, missing on Qb early can cripple a great team. He did everything else right, drafting Mid-round Wr's, Stud RB early. Mid-Round TE. Draft was value filled.
Prime Time
While there was value to be found late in his draft, Ara got lucky. He took a QB early with Manning and drafted Levon bell to save his butt late. The other two WRs were good for what he had, but the draft was clearly a boon because of Manning. In-season management and schedule played a huge role in the success of the team, as the draft wasn't full of value to claim this team to be playoff worthy.
Hangin' & Bangin'
We can see why Hangin' was a first round exit in the playoffs, but commend the team for making it that far. Their draft strategy was correct, with a stud RB early and mid-round WR's that turned into studs. Missing on Qb was the nail in the coffin for the team, and burning two picks on the position in the mid-rounds doesn't help. However, of the playoff teams, they had the smallest number to build on and did enough to make it to the postseason.
Magnum Sev.i
Solid draft, full of value. Top heavy with a lone value pick late. They opted QB early, but missed, showing why waiting on Qb could be a wiser strategy. If your early round QB duds, it will be near impossible to recover. Just too much value invested at a high value position. Rodgers injury buried a team that had a lot of promise at the beginning of the year.
Atomic Bomba
Six picks were all value picks, and covered every position. Four of the players picked finished in the top 5/10 at their respective positions. This was a solid draft. Notice that Romo was not a top 5 Qb but was good enough to lead the team to the finals. You need a good Qb, not necessarily a great one. As long as your other positions are solid, and they were.
Awesomeness
Very good draft. RB value in the mid-rounds and mid-round Qb was the right way to go. Missing on WR's elsewhere crippled the team. One injury to Julio was all it took. Could be a case that the season schedule led to the teams demise, along with poor management.
Hartan
Late round value galore. The draft strategy was prudent, as a mid-round miss on a QB wasn't severe enough to cripple the season (though they did trade for Brees). Big Ben late salvaged things. Mid-round Rbs bolstered the RB dept, as did late round WRs. Good draft strategy helped propel the team through the season. Had a solid group to build on and no surprise that the value taken turned into playoff team.
BDiddy
Their draft strategy was spot on. All positions. Drafted QB mid and late. Early Rb stud, mid-round Wr's. The team not making the playoffs was not at fault of the draft. Attribute their lack of success to either in-season management or schedule. On paper, they had enough to build on to make the postseason but didn't.
Cobra Kai.
Not typical draft strategy, but worked. Top heavy draft and enough value in mid-round players to hold team up at other positions. Good value late as well. Draft was a prime reason that Cobra was able to maintain success during the season. Was a good enough start to build and carry through the season.
As you can see, there were many teams that started off the season already with their foot in a ditch (Vosgee, Grabbers) and others that had much promise but failed to capitalize (BDiddy, Jaj, Magnum, Awesome). Prime Time and Hangin' both began the year with poor teams in regards to player value, but did enough (or got lucky) during the season to manage to keep playing during week 14.
So what makes a great draft? Great players that exceed their draft position at the end of the year. There is no perfect draft strategy, as everything is fluid, but you can bet that if you follow some of the guidelines from the charts above, you will more than likely be successful.
- Wait on a Quarterback, and if you don't, he has to be a hit. The earlier the dud, the harder it is to recover from.
- RBs aren't found late, they're found early. Try and get a stud the sooner the better.
- Wide Receivers are everywhere. If you don't get one early, you can get one in the mid-rounds.
- Tight end is a crap shoot. Wait and be late.
And if you do in fact manage a great draft, just remember, it's only the beginning. Great management can save a poor draft, and poor management can destroy a great one. In the end, its all on you. So keep mock drafting, studying, and preparing. Just a few more weeks left until the real draft is here. And by all means, pray to the fantasy gods. It'll only be a few months from now when you look back to the decisions you made in august and think to yourself, "never again!" That is, until next year.