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Building Draft Confidence: The Greatest Picks In Every AFFL Team's History

August 13, 2014Raffi Lalazarian

Confidence. You need it in all aspects of life. Whether it is approaching that curvacious woman using the elliptical machine at the gym, or deciding to select the not-so-obvious pick in the second round of a fantasy draft, the more confidence you have in yourself the better equipped you'll be to take risks and make the tough choices in life. In a fantasy draft, it's all about making tough choices, and those that take the risky road, often are rewarded. Behold the turtle, it only makes progress when it sticks its neck out.

Going into the 2014 draft, the tension will be running high, and many will crumble when their team's selection is on the clock. The choice between Doug Martin, Larry Fitzgerald, or a Quarterback will stir a philosophical conversation in a managers head that will seemingly go on for hours during the minute and a half they have to finalize their pick. And no sooner than when they proclaim their choice, they will inadvertently blurt out, "I hated that pick." Tsk. Tsk. Oh ye' with little faith. A lack of confidence indeed.

For every bust, there has been a diamond in the rough found by each manager in the AFFL, and it should be celebrated. Whether a manager can or can't draft in the AFFL could be argued for days (Will Hangin' & Bangin' nail it this year or go limp into the season again?), but each team has had their share of great picks in the past, something they can carry with pride into 2014.

So call this article a confidence piece, aimed to bolster up the fragile egos of every AFFL manager who will dare to select the perfect team come the 2014 draft. We combed through every AFFL draft since 2008 and gathered up the best picks from every AFFL team. Any draft pick was eligible, as long as they were used in their roster at some point during the season. We looked for players whose numbers were a significant increase from their draft spot. While early round picks may have been spot on, we looked for one's that would bring a little more ooh and ahhhs for the manager.

Was Josh Gordon Bomba's best pick ever? Did Ara out do himself with Peyton Manning? Was Eddie Lacy HBK's masterpiece? Did Hangin' & Bangin' make Jordy Nelson in 2013 their all-time best? We shall soon find out. Let the confidence building begin.

Jaj Cousteau

2010 - Arian Foster (2nd round. Pick #19)

Honorable Mention: 2014 - Alshon Jeffery (11th round. Pick #124)

Nothing quite like entering the league with a bang, and Jaj did just that when he selected Arian Foster in the second round of his inaugural AFFL season. Granted, Cousteau is a huge Texans fan, so we must assume that he had been doing heavy research on the team prior to the draft. Heck, he could have been talking to head coach Kubiak for all we know. During the 2010 preseason, rumors were buzzing about Foster being a prime break out candidate, and his stock began slowly climbing up draft boards. He peaked at around the end of the fourth round, which was very high for a complete unknown. When it came time for Jaj to make his selection, he didn't waiver a bit, and the entire draft room reacted with a collective "whoa," to which Jaj perked up and looked around like they were crazy. He was right. They were. Foster finished as the top fantasy back that season. Cousteau strikes again!

Awesomeness

2008 - Chris Johnson (8th round. Pick #89)

Honorable Mention: 2011 - C.J. Spiller (8th round. Pick #92)

There was one year when Chris Johnson was known as Cj2k, and that happened to be the year that Awesomeness nabbed him in the 8th round. In his first season in the league, Awesomeness launched his team to the finals thanks in large part by gambling on a rookie in the 8th round. Already gambling by taking three Atlanta falcons as his starters, David put his entire RB situation in the hands of a rookie that was unknown and not getting much pub. What ended up happening next was an entire league of managers realizing that Awesomeness was exactly that, too awesome handle on a weekly basis. It set the stage for a series of three consecutive years making the finals with back-to-back titles in '09-'10. It all began with a little known rookie out of eastern Carolina.

Vosgereechee Gyank

2012 - Andrew Luck (12th Round. Pick #143)

Back in 2012, Andrew Luck exploded on the scene as a rookie, and propelled the Colts back into immediate relevance. Waiting for a quarterback has always been a prudent move, and while the Gyank had already nabbed Tony Romo in the 8th round, he didn't hesitate to take a gamble on the rookie QB that many felt wouldn't have the weapons to pose an offense threat in the league. They were wrong, and Vosgee reaped the benefit of a top 8 QB that was gained after the 10th round. Romo finished number 7 at the position, giving his Gyankness a solid QB foundation all year long. Very nice work indeed.

Grabbers United

2010 - Darren McFadden (9th Round. Pick #101)

When the 2010 draft began, there was much speculation as to where to nab the Raiders RB who had been injury prone and labeled a bust in the previous two seasons. With no teams wanting to invest an early round pick on DMac, he slipped all the way down to the 9th round, where Grabbers United owner Sassoon took advantage. It was a low risk move with high upside, but still a gamble that eleven other managers passed up. The result? DMacs best statistical year of his career with over 1600 yards combo yards and 10 TDs. Patience is a virtue, and kudos to Grabbers for taking the plunge on a player that was thought of as a waste of a roster spot.

BDiddy

2012 - Peyton Manning (6th Round. Pick #61)

Honorable Mention: 2012- Demeriyus Thomas (5th Round. Pick #60)

The first year Peyton Manning returned from neck surgery, nobody knew what to expect. While many fantasy experts lauded Manning as a good quarterback to own, few were on board with any notion that he would finish in the top two that year at the position. After the Atomic Bomba snagged Julio Jones and Matt Ryan in the early rounds, BDiddy and company shifted to plan C, and targeted Peyton. Not only did BDiddy throw caution in the wind by drafting Manning at extremely good value in the 6th round, they went all in on the Bronco's passer by pairing him with his #1 target Demeriyus Thomas a pick earlier. The results were glowing, as Diddy made it to the semi-finals in the playoffs thanks to Manning's huge year. Bravo indeed.

Magnum Sev.i

2013 - Knowshon Moreno (14th Round. Pick #162)

Honorable Mention: 2011 - Darren Sproles (12th Round. Pick #137)

Anytime you can nab a running back in the late rounds that turns out to be an RB1 for the entire year, you've done very well for yourself. During the 2013 preseason, many fantasy aficionados were clamoring for rookie Monte Ball or 2nd year back Ronnie Hillman to be drafted in leagues. Buried on the depth chart, Moreno was looked at as more a long shot to win the job in Denver. Magnum Sev.i turned a deaf ear to the so called experts and drafted Hillman and Moreno, covering his behind in the process. While he didn't draft either as a starter, Moreno quickly emerged as his best option, finishing 4th amongst all RBs in fantasy points. You can go ahead and peg Moreno the greatest 14th round pick the AFFL has seen. Always respect the 'stache.

Hangin' & Bangin'

2009 - Ricky Williams (13th Round. Pick#155)

In between finding himself and teaching Yoga, Ricky Williams managed to briefly have a great year during his 2009 campaign. Combining for over 1400 yards and 13 TDs, Williams finished 5th amongst RBs at the position. Those numbers would peg him to be drafted somewhere between rounds 2-4 in most any fantasy football draft format. Hangin' & Bangin' (then known as the Donkey Punchers) scored big time by grabbing Ricky with their 155th overall pick. While draft hits have been hard to come by for the franchise, Bangin' did an excellent job doing their homework and nabbing a player who immediately provided RB2/1 production on a weekly basis. Granted they did eventually trade Williams at the deadline in a package deal for Wes Welker and Malcom Floyd, but not before they got the most value out of one of the best RBs in the 2009 season. It's great when you get 'em late and they reciprocate isn't it?

HBK Shant Michaels

2010 - LaDanian Tomlinson (8th Round. Pick #94)

Honorable Mention: 2013 - Eddie Lacy (3rd Round. Pick #25)

After forty other running backs went ahead of him in the 2010 AFFL Draft, LT was sitting around waiting for a suitor at the end of the 8th round where HBK Shant Michaels took a gamble on him. After years of gracing the top of the draft boards in fantasy, it was a natural fall from grace for LT as his age started to catch-up with him. Pre-Draft rankings had LT as a mid-round gamble, stating that he could end up on the back end of a time share with no goal line carries. Despite the warnings to temper expectations, HBK took a shot and was rewarded with solid RB2 numbers. His 193 fantasy points that season placed him in the top 12 at the position, leap frogging twenty eight other running backs that were drafted ahead of him. HBK definitely dropped some nice late round chin music here.

Hartan

2012 - Alfred Morris (14th Round. Pick #166)

Honorable Mention: 2009 - Brett Favre (12th Round. Pick #135)

When it comes to late round value, it doesn't get much better than Hartan's draft pick of Alfred Morris in the 2012 AFFL draft. During that years preseason, the starting running back for Mike Shanahan's offense was in limbo. He had been known to toy with fantasy owners by playing a game of musical chairs in the backfield with past teams, so taking any redskins quarterback was a yearlong gamble. While names like Helu and Royster were speculated to get the starting nod, Hartan nabbed Alfred Morris late, hoping he would eventually win the job. He did, and after a season with 1600 yards and 13 TDs which landed him in the top five amongst running backs in fantasy points, Hartan couldn't have been more pleased. Not all 14th round picks are the same. Some end up becoming RB1s and providing joy that every fantasy owner dreams of. Hartan nailed one here.

Prime Time

2011 - Steve Smith Sr. (8th Round. Pick #95)

Honorable Mention: 2013 - LeVeon Bell (9th Round. Pick #101)

In 2011, the Panthers had a rookie Cam Newton as quarterback and an aging Steve Smith coming off two of his worst seasons statistically in his career. Blending those two together brought a lot of risk when thinking about drafting Smith in any of the early rounds. Naturally, he slipped come draft day, where Prime Time nabbed him with the 95th overall pick in the 8th round. He was drafted as his 3rd wide receiver, so this wasn't just someone who was brought in for depth. Ara was drafting him as a starter. Smith rewarded Prime Time's trust with a stat line that was his 3rd highest in his career: 79 rec, 1394 yrds, 7 Tds. He finished as the 5th highest WR in fantasy and carried Prime Time all the way to the finals. Incidentally, Cam Newton wasn't even drafted, which shows just how much of a risk Ara took. Well done, just like a piece of Prime Rib.

Atomic Bomba

2010 - Peyton Hillis (14th Round. Pick #162)

Honorable Mention: 2013 - Josh Gordon (9th Round. Pick #104)

No Steve Slaton. No Deangelo Williams. This honor goes to a white RB. In 2009, Peyton Hillis was a back-up running back for the Denver Broncos. A stocky, fairly slow RB, that had pedestrian numbers. After being traded to the Cleveland Browns for Brady Quinn, Hillis had a chance to do something that nobody thought he would: Get on the cover of Madden. With the 162nd pick in the draft, Bomba targeted "White Thunder" in hopes that he would capitalize on the flashes he showed at the end of the 2009 season and become the Browns lead back. Become the lead back he did, finishing with 273 fantasy points, the most for any RB that year. The Bomba rode the Hillis train all the way to his second title in so many years. The greatest 14th round pick in the history of the AFFL. Peyton Hills. Who would have thought?

Cobra Kai

2011 - Matthew Stafford (8th Round. Pick #88)

Honorable 2013 - Mention: Antonio Brown (6th Round. Pick #60)

In 2011, Matthew Stafford was coming of major shoulder surgery, and was labeled as an injury prone quarterback. Despite the label, Stafford had tremendous upside being that he was throwing to the league's best wide receiver in Calvin Johnson, so it's a little surprising he slid as far as he did during the draft. Cobra Kai patiently laid back and waited until the 8th round to grab his QB1 without hesitation. Staffords 5,000 yard passing season would place him third amongst quarterbacks that season, just behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. The 88th pick in the draft turned out to be a steal, as Stafford produced elite numbers week-in and week-out. Kudos goes to the Cobra for sitting back and waiting for the value at the position to come to him. It paid off big time. Strike first or eigth. Strike Hard. Show no Mercy. He-ya!

categories Featured, Home Main
tags Awesomeness, Atomic Bomba, Hartan, Jaj Cousteau, Magnum Sev.i, Hangin', Grabbers, Prime Time, Bdiddy, Cobra Kai, Vosgee Gyank, AFFL News

Analyzing the 2013 AFFL Draft: Draft Strategies that Win.

August 11, 2014Raffi Lalazarian

Right now, everyone in the AFFL is preparing for their 2014 fantasy football draft. Spread sheets are being made. Mock drafts performed. Numbers crunched. Information absorbed. When it's all said and done, twelve managers will enter the August 29th draft with a list of studs, sleepers and players to avoid in hopes of coming out with the best 16 players possible. Unfortunately, many will fail, but won't know it until around week four of the football season when their fantasy team is already in the fantasy toilet about to get fantasy flushed. We've all been there, and we will all be there again very soon.

The draft is a cruel beast. You prepare over a month and even though you know your stuff, you look back to it around the middle of September cursing out every expert that told you to take that sleeper WR in the middle-rounds. You swear you will never listen to Brad Evans again, and guarantee that next year will be different. You promise to "change things up," but inevitably fall back on your old habits year in and year out. It's tough to change instincts that are essentially embedded in a managers personality. Only by looking back at our failures can we hopefully make the corrections needed in the future. A fantasy future that is inevitably filled with frustration and "eff this shit."

Before we go forward, let's take a look back. Last years draft can offer managers a lot of helpful hints as to which draft strategies to use and avoid. We know that the draft is not only about which players you pick, but also where you pick them. Getting a player that exceeds his draft spot and finishes season near the top of his position in points is the name of the game. It really is that simple.

Knowing your league managers and how they draft plays a huge part too. Like playing poker, you should know your opponents. You should know which draft strategy they prefer most often. Heavy on RBs. Heavy on WRs. Which players do they target? More often than not, each manager has their "type of player" they target, and will continuously draft those players year after year. The more you know, the better off you'll be.

While knowing your opponents is key, we won't be doing much of that here. Instead, we'll focus on the players taken, where they were taken, and more importantly, what positions seemed to dictate the teams success. This is not the end-all-say-all for being successful of course. In-season management, trades, injuries, free agent pick-ups, these all play a huge role in winning. But a great draft gives a team a leg up on everyone else. The better players you have, the more of a chance you will succeed.

Let's begin by analyzing the draft positions of the teams that were successful. Below is an image of the 2013 draft with the playoff teams highlighted in orange and the non-playoff teams highlighted in grey.

From the above graphic you'll notice that three of the teams that made the playoffs drafted in the middle of the draft; spots five, six, and eight. Many fantasy football draft analysts claim that teams that are most successful drafted in the middle rounds, and this backs that point up. Prime Time, Hangin', and Bomba all made it to the post-season, with Bomba reaching the finals. We will keep these teams in mind as we go through the draft and take a look at how they did. You would assume that these teams did something right that helped them gain entrance into the post-season. Looking at what they did right can help form a proper draft strategy for those teams that haven't been able to capitalize on draft success in years past.

Let's begin by examining the quarterback position to see if there is anything worthy to note.

Quarterbacks

Everyone knows having a stud QB means everything. In fact, of the teams that made the playoffs, all but two of them had a quarterback that finished in the top five. Having a top quarterback is crucial, and accounts for more than half a teams chances of making the post season. But examining the drafting of those quarterbacks tells us quite a different story. Take a look at the chart below.

The above chart highlights the quarterbacks and where they were taken. A green highlight denotes that the quarterback finished in the top five. A yellow means they exceeded their draft position and finished in the top ten. A red highlight means that they weren't worth the pick where taken, finishing below their draft status, or not being much of a factor.

Of the six playoff teams that had top five quarterbacks, only two were drafted in the first two rounds (Manning & Brees). The others, Stafford, Rivers, and Dalton were all drafted in the sixth round or later, and after the 14th round in Rivers and Dalton's case. Adding to that we see Tony Romo, Luck, Big Ben, Wilson, Newton, all finished in the top ten, with Romo leading Bomba to the finals. Granted, Aaron Rodgers will more often than not always finish in the top five, so Sev.i did get screwed there, but injuries or not, this is about whether the pick was worth it. Obviously, last season, Rodgers didn't warrant a 2nd round pick.

Conversely, looking at the chart, notice how many teams missed on quarterbacks. These picks could have been used on other positions and garnished a much better return on investment. Had a team like Jaj not reached on Kapernick and waited a few rounds, he could have bolstered his team up significantly. Prime Time whiffed on his draft strategy of taking two Qbs and trading one, but lucky for him, one of those Qbs was Peyton Manning. What is interesting to note is that Hangin' and Bangin' had two duds for their Qb, yet still made the playoffs. For the most part, teams that gambled at the QB position early in the draft and missed (Sev.i, Jaj) were hurt a lot worse than teams that missed at the QB position later in the draft (Hangin', Hartan). If you go QB early, it has to be a winner, or else your season can sink fast.

HBK nailed his QBs, selecting two top five quarterbacks. He immediately gave himself a leg up on the league and had a bargaining chip at his disposal. Three non-playoff teams did well too, Awesomeness, BDiddy, and Vosgee, getting great value for the Qbs they took in the mid-rounds. BDiddy especially nailed it with Dalton in the late rounds. Since they didn't make the playoffs, it could be assumed that either these teams managed their draft poorly, or they faltered at other positions. In BDiddy's case, he ended up trading Dalton before the season even started, a move that I'm sure he would have loved to have back.

So what do gain from this? Well, we can note that yes, in order to make the playoffs, you need a top QB. The chart tells us that of the quarterbacks finishing in the top ten, eight were drafted rounds 4 or later, with three available in the fourteenth round and on. Yes you need a good quarterback, but you don't necessarily need to get one in the early rounds. Waiting on a Quarterback is more often than not a wise choice, as there is plenty of value in the mid to late rounds. And if you do go QB early, you better hit on that pick. A dud on a quarterback in the early rounds is far more likely to crush a teams chances.

Running Backs

Running backs have always been the golden geese of fantasy. Having a stud RB and RB depth is always a key to getting your team on the winning side of things. However, the chart tells a very interesting story in regards to the position. Notice that most of the RBs that were hits according to their draft spot were in the early to mid rounds. All the RBs that finished in the top ten were drafted in rounds 1-4. Yellow highlighted RBs exceeded their draft position and ended somewhere in the top 25. While there was value to be found late with Zac Stacy and Knowshon Moreno, the majority of RBs that exceeded their draft position were also in the top half of the draft.

Looking at the playoff teams, all had a stud RB on their team. In fact, most had two RBs that exceeded draft position. HBK hit a home run, drafting both AP and Lacy in the first three rounds. Hartan, and Bomba each had a stud Rb on their team along with value mid and late which was crucial to the teams success. Bomba's case was particularly interesting being that his first round RB was a bust, showing that as long as you have one great RB on your team, you'll be okay. Hangin' illustrated that point. His lone RB was Lynch, whom carried his team at the position.

Two teams that fail to follow the rules in this case are Cobra and Prime. They both had mid-round value with a few running backs, but more often then not, their RBs failed across the board. In Prime Time's case, he had a first round bust in Ray Rice and failed to draft a significant RB in the first eight rounds. Both teams ended up making the playoffs due to a little movement later in the year. Le'von bell eventually came on and became solid play, and Cobra ended up trading for Jamaal Charles, Murray and McCoy. This further exemplifies the fact that you need a stud Rb. At least one. Half-decent RBs, won't do.

While waiting on a quarterback is fine and dandy, waiting on an RB could be costly, unless you hit it big. There aren't many RBs late that will turn into RB1s to carry your team. You'd be wise to at least get one that is by the mid-rounds, or else you the odds will be against you. Of course, the rate of injury at the position affects this group more than any other. Nabbing handcuffs and waiting out some of the time-shares that teams use could be a wise strategy. Many teams that do that could find their own Zac Stacy and hit pay dirt. But in order to compete, you need to be solid at the RB position, and from the data, it's better to be safe than sorry. Get one the sooner the better.

Wide Receivers

With the NFL becoming more of a passing league, there has been a glut of talent infused into the WR position group. In years past, there were far less teams that could support two stud WR's on the same team. That is no longer the case. Many teams have multiple WRs that are top 25 and are worthy of selecting to lead any teams WR core.

The chart above tells that story. While top ten Running backs were situated mostly in the first few rounds, the Wide Receivers are scattered about. Only four of the top ten receivers were drafted in the first two rounds. The other six were drafted in rounds 3-9. The yellow highlighted receivers, those that finished in the top 25, can also be found in abundance in those rounds. The chart shows that while missing on RBs early could be deadly, missing on a WR may not be as bad. There is much value to be had in the mid-round wide outs.

Each of the playoff teams had at least one stud, and in most cases two, with the exception of Hartan and Prime Time. Bomba drafting Gordon and Green gave him a huge advantage on a week-to-week basis, with two receivers in the top ten at the position. Cobra and Hangin' each had one of their own, and in Hangin's case, was a prime factor in the team making the postseason.

The two exceptions are Hartan and Prime Time. We can deduce by now that Peyton Manning and in-season management/easy schedule seemed to be the primary factors in Prime TIme's playoff birth. Hartan had great picks at other positions, so his lack of WR hits were made up for at other spots.

No team drafted WR's better than Jaj. Four of his WRs exceeded their draft spots and two finished in the top ten. We can assume his failure to make the post-season had more to do with his reach on QB than at the RB/WR positions.

Of the three main position groups, the wide receivers seem to be the most consistent, showcasing that there is value to be had all over the draft. The mid-rounds are prime fishing spots when looking to hook a top notch receiver relative to his draft spot. If it doesn't work out, it won't be the end of the world. There are plenty still swimming later in the draft.

Tight Ends

Drafting tight ends is perhaps the most difficult. Jimmy Graham is the leader of the pack and there is a very large gap between him and the second tier. While the position doesn't have much to offer in regards to depth, the value of a tight end can be found mostly in the mid-to-late rounds. If you aren't going to get Graham, you're better off waiting.

Last years draft shows us that of the tight ends that finished top 5 at the position, three were drafted between rounds 4-10. (Julius Thomas was not drafted). What is more important to note is that the teams that missed on a tight end in the mid-rounds really did themselves a disservice. Vosgee and Grabbers each got zero value for their tight ends, with Grabbers using a fifth round pick on Gronk.

The yellow highlighted players are those that finished in the top ten, and as you can see, there are plenty to be found late. With such a disparity between the top tier and mid tier at the position, teams are much better off trying to find a Tight end later in the draft than risking a pick on one in the early rounds.

Putting it All Together

So after collecting all the data from the various positions we can now assemble a master copy of what the draft looked like from a value stand point for all positions during last years AFFL draft and assess which teams truly scored big. We know from the charts above that its better to wait on a Qb, not wait on an RB, and look for WRs in the mid-rounds. More often than not, those strategies will produce the best value draft for a manager.

Below is a chart that combines the previous four. Defenses and kickers are greyed out, unless they were drafted in the mid-rounds. No defense last season was worth a mid-round pick in relation to the position.

Okay, that's a lot of color. What does it tell us? Well, it tells us that there are a bunch of teams that started off the season with a significant advantage on everyone else and either capitalized on it or squandered their chances. Conversely, Prime Time and Hangin' didn't exactly have stellar drafts in regards to value, but benefited from either a soft schedule or great management. Let's breakdown each teams draft starting with HBK at pick one.

HBK

It's quite obvious why HBK made the postseason, he had 5 players that finished at the top of their positions. Rivers in the 16th was eventually dropped, but Stafford was good enough. He followed protocol for the most part, hitting on Rbs early, and waiting on Qbs mid-to-late. The team was very strong. His draft was an all or nothing affair, seemingly missing on every other pick except for the five he nailed. That was good enough.

Grabbers United

With only two players that exceeded their draft value, Grabbers didn't have enough to start the season to be a contender. He may need to look at which positions he targeted at what spot and change the strategy. He can start with targeting a quarterback sooner than the last four rounds.

Vosgereechee Gyank

Only three picks seemed to exceed their draft value. That won't cut it, not when your first two picks are dud Rbs. You need someone in the top 5/10 at the position if that happens. Targeting WR's mid-rounds was the correct move, but he just picked the wrong RBs early, and nothing great late. That turned out to be the death knell.